National Petroleum Reserve

[AlaskaHunter]

The National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A)is located on the Arctic Coastal Plain, west of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
At 23,600,000 acres, the NPRA is the largest tract of undisturbed public land in the United States.
The Biden administration announced yesterday that it plans to use Alternative A – the “No Action Alternative” from the NPR-A’s 2020 Integrated Activity Plan (IAP) as its preferred alternative to manage the reserve. This would close approximately half of the surface acreage of the reserve, which is roughly the size of Indiana, to energy leasing. That reverts back to the 2013 Obama administration version, which could effect almost 50% of the NPR-A – that's over 11 million acres.
Good news or bad news? Depends on your perspective...
I found the timing before mid-term elections interesting, and in contrast to Biden's November release of a record 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

 

[Bigjay73]

This won't go well

 

[Gellar]

I’m all for drilling oil responsiblly in the US. But I think it’s good to keep this area undeveloped, an ace in the whole if we ever need it.

 

[AlaskaHunter]

I’m all for drilling oil responsiblly in the US. But I think it’s good to keep this area undeveloped, an ace in the whole if we ever need it.

I agree... U.S. crude oil production as of December 2021 was 11,800.00 thousand barrels per day, and it was half that ten years ago.

 

[Redman]

We have other places that have been shut down by this administration that should open back up before ever considering this.

 

[BearFoot]

A lot of oil in Alaska!
Lot's of coal also.
Nat gas galore!
All comes from Mother Earth.
Better shut it down, for the common good!

 

[mdhunter]

If we don’t want to pay more in taxes and don’t want to cut spending, selling some oil sounds prudent to me. I am willing to bet we can’t run trillion dollar deficits forever.

 

[BZNHNTR]

I agree with keeping a substantial untapped oil reserve, it’s not an infinite resource and at some point having it could be far more important for our country than lower gas prices today. I doubt that is the reason they are withholding leases currently but it has the same outcome…

 

[BigHornRam]

Oil prices going up. Good investment opportunity right now.

Oil Prices Jump Over 3% Ahead Of Inventory Data | OilPrice.com

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Tuesday afternoon in the runup to the much-watched API crude oil inventory data report

oilprice.com

 

[mtmiller]

I agree... U.S. crude oil production as of December 2021 was 11,800.00 thousand barrels per day, and it was half that ten years ago.

The annual average for U.S. crude oil production is expected to hit an all-time record next year and surpass pre-pandemic levels, according to a report yesterday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In its January short-term energy outlook, EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would grow to 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which the agency said would be “the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production on record.”

EIA said the current record, set in 2019, is 12.3 million bpd. In a tweet, the agency said its forecast includes nine consecutive quarters of growth in U.S. oil production from the end of 2021 through 2023. “Production growth reflects oil prices that we expect will be sufficient to lead to continued increases in upstream development activity, which we forecast will proceed at a pace that will more than offset decline rates,” the EIA report said.

The upstream segment of oil and gas refers to exploration and production activities. U.S. crude oil production dropped slightly from 2020 to 2021, down 0.1 million bpd, because of well freeze-offs during extreme cold in February, as well as well shut-ins triggered because of Hurricane Ida, which slammed into the Gulf Coast in August 2021. EIA said U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.2 million bpd last year, adding it anticipates that production will average 11.8 million bpd this year. Spot prices for Brent crude, the international price benchmark, rose from $43 per barrel in the third quarter of 2020 to $79 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2021, the report said.

Brent prices averaged $71 per barrel last year, and EIA forecasted they will average $75 per barrel this year. After an 8 percent jump from 2020 to last year, U.S. coal production will also continue to grow through next year, EIA said. The agency said it expects coal production will increase by 6 percent this year and 1 percent in 2023. “The 2021 increase primarily reflected more consumption of coal in the electric power sector amid an increase in natural gas spot prices, which made coal more economically competitive relative to natural gas for electricity generation dispatch,” the EIA report said. Additionally, the data said natural gas and coal are expected to have decreasing shares of total power generation this year and next.

Natural gas-fired power generation is forecast to fall from an average of 37 percent last year to “average 35% in 2022 and 34% in 2023,” EIA said. While coal’s share of generation grew to 23 percent last year because of higher natural gas prices, EIA expects it to “decline slightly over the next two years, averaging near 22% in 2022 and 2023.” Natural gas’s share of power sector generation was 39 percent in 2020, and coal’s share was 20 percent in 2020, according to EIA’s short-term energy outlook from January 2021.

 

[SAJ-99]

We have other places that have been shut down by this administration that should open back up before ever considering this.

I just have to laugh. BLM has practically been on a record pace for approving leases the last year. Certainly for an “anti-oil” President. That is why his approval rating is so low. Climate-change left doesn’t like it, right-leaning O&G cant support it and cry poor-mouth while stuffing their pockets. The whole thing is comical to some degree.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/06/biden-is-approving-more-oil-gas-drilling-permits-public-lands-than-trump-analysis-finds/

 

[Irrelevant]

It legitimately doesn't matter what a politician does. Most people already have there own narrative and would rather die than admit otherwise.

 

[Bambistew]

Meah... High oil prices mean we can push out the probability of income or sales tax another year. At this rate we might just make it to the point that the Permanent Fund can actually sustain the government. We're pushing, what 80B?

Development in the NPR will be quite challenging due to wetlands, permafrost and short construction season, and is just going to get harder with climate change. its crazy the amount of warming that has happened in AK vs the lessor 48 in the last 20 years. Some areas we've looked at in the interior has warmed 5 degrees in January over the last 40 years. Building the ice roads and ice road season gets shorter ever year. There are other places that make far more sense with infrastructure near by, easier access, known reserves, far smaller impact etc. AKA 10-02 area. Maybe in another 20 years we'll be able to drill 20 miles horizontally.

All I know is the phone is ringing off the hook with mining work. Thanks "renewable" energy warriors.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Development in the NPR will be quite challenging due to wetlands, permafrost and short construction season, and is just going to get harder with climate change. its crazy the amount of warming that has happened in AK vs the lessor 48 in the last 20 years. Some areas we've looked at in the interior has warmed 5 degrees in January over the last 40 years. Building the ice roads and ice road season gets shorter ever year. There are other places that make far more sense with infrastructure near by, easier access, known reserves, far smaller impact etc. AKA 10-02 area. Maybe in another 20 years we'll be able to drill 20 miles horizontally.

The upfront development costs in Alaska are batshit crazy, to the point that only the super majors are in the game. Realistic exploration of ANWR 10B, expansion of Conoco's expansion of Moose tooth cost $2B and that was an establish field using a lot of existing infrastructure. For comparison a private equity fund might raise $50mm for a company in the lower 48, a big fund would be ~$300-500... an absolute monster investment would be $1B.

Then there is the old is there actually oil there question?

The National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A)is located on the Arctic Coastal Plain, west of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
At 23,600,000 acres, the NPRA is the largest tract of undisturbed public land in the United States.

So yeah 23MM acres... with no infrastructure, no previously drilled wells, little seismic...

and it's an extremely hostile working environment...ridiculously expensive... and it's oil EXPLORATION.

A company could easily spend 5B in AK and come up with nothing.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

1. Is there oil in the ground
2. Can I get the oil out of the ground and to market for < than I can sell it for... ie. can I make money.
3. Will removing the oil irreparably damage the ecosystem.

These are the only questions that matter. For whatever reason both sides of the aisle have their heads in their asses about drilling.

AK
1. Maybe
2. No

We don't even need to answer question 3.

Why does this keep coming up...

 

[SAJ-99]

Why does this keep coming up...

Not sure why it comes up on HT, but the issue never dies because Alaska is dependent on the O&G revenues. Same for WY.

 

[Irrelevant]

Why does this keep coming up...

Because it's politically expedient to do so.

 

[noharleyyet]

Raw meat and a splitting maul for perked ears...

Because it's politically expedient to do so.

 

[BigHornRam]

Why does it keep coming up?

Oil production in Alaska reaches lowest level in more than 40 years - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Not sure why it comes up on HT, but the issue never dies because Alaska is dependent on the O&G revenues. Same for WY.

Yeah totally. I guess I mean that more as a "but WHYYYYY"

Next R president is going to open it up, the next D will then close it... it will be a football.
Murkowski we keep trying to prop up the industry at all costs.

I predict Conoco will keep drilling there, esp if there 2021 projects yield good returns. I don't think their activity will keep the states production from declining.

I'm a little bear-ish on the running room of US shale.

In 20 years, assuming we are still at the same rate of oil consumption I could see exploration happening... BUT, I think oil will, in the near future, decline and gas will increase, and if that happens AK has no chance.

I don't really see any scenario in the near term where Alaska oil has a chance... Texas gets nuked?