Is the Coronavirus a Joke to some People?

[rwc101]

COVID-19: Herd immunity threshold could be lower, study finds

Herd immunity to COVID-19 could be achieved with fewer people being infected than previously estimated, according to new research.

www.sciencedaily.com

Horowitz: Sweden riding high and the triumph of the rational herd immunity approach | Blaze Media

Look at the curves.

www.theblaze.com

My own thinking on the matter of mass hysteria of crowds, which is what we've been witnessing for months on end, is that when en mass groups decide something together, they are wrong by simple observation.

Your first link is about the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated, not infected, to achieve herd immunity. The latest from the CDC suggests people are only immune for three months after recovering.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Even if the percentage of people in the US that need to have COVID in order to achieve herd immunity is 40% instead of 60-70%, that still means there will be 131 million cases in the US. Thus far we have confirmed 5 million. Even if actual numbers are 5 fold higher (just as a wild ass speculative number), that still would mean we are only 20% of the way to herd immunity. So, forgive me if I am reluctant to believe we are nearing the crest of the hill.

With respect to immunity from exposure, it's not a black and white immunity. Antibodies are only one component of your immune system. The certainly provide a more effective response, but they are not the only response.

And then, you have this......

More than 1 in 3 Americans will refuse a COVID-19 vaccine: poll

Although support for vaccines remains high overall, the results come amid the anti-vaccine movement which threatening the progress towards ending the pandemic which has upended the global economy and killed over 167,000 Americans to date.

www.foxnews.com

Good old 'Murica. Don't mess with our red meat, Busch Light, hypertension, obesity, and paranoia about vaccines and 5G chips.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

So i haven't been joining in really but kinda just watching this thread out of curiosity and I had Covid... And I'll say this ill take Covid any day over the stomach flu. Stomach flu is way worse for me than Covid was. I'll also had some cousins and uncles from another state that some of them had it and they said the same thing. We did have one friend that had it a lil worse but it was still nothing as bad as having something like bad strep throat.

I have no trouble believing what you say, as I've heard similar from folks around me. I also saw what happened with one of my patients the other day when she asked for a brief break from the BIPAP mask that was supporting her breathing. The gasping, distress, and fear in her eyes were pretty much instantaneous when that mask came off, and she had not recovered by the end of my shift. She died within a few hours. You can't assume that everyone will have the same experience as you.

One thing that is starting to bother me more and more is the backlash against the professional/expert folks who don't have all the answers. They don't have all the answers because they're still figuring it out. Their answers change sometimes because they get new information. This is not conspiracy, it's called science. It's a lot like me screaming at the fish and game department because they can't tell me if my chosen unit will have 25% or 35% success this fall. The knowledge base will hopefully get better over time, but it's always going to be learn by experience and hindsight. I'm much more bothered by the non-medical people who believe their voices need to be heard.

QQ

 

[fmnjr]

Even if the percentage of people in the US that need to have COVID in order to achieve herd immunity is 40% instead of 60-70%, that still means there will be 131 million cases in the US. Thus far we have confirmed 5 million. Even if actual numbers are 5 fold higher (just as a wild ass speculative number), that still would mean we are only 20% of the way to herd immunity. So, forgive me if I am reluctant to believe we are nearing the crest of the hill.

With respect to immunity from exposure, it's not a black and white immunity. Antibodies are only one component of your immune system. The certainly provide a more effective response, but they are not the only response.

And then, you have this......

More than 1 in 3 Americans will refuse a COVID-19 vaccine: poll

Although support for vaccines remains high overall, the results come amid the anti-vaccine movement which threatening the progress towards ending the pandemic which has upended the global economy and killed over 167,000 Americans to date.

www.foxnews.com

Good old 'Murica. Don't mess with our red meat, Busch Light, hypertension, obesity, and paranoia about vaccines and 5G chips.

There are studies out there that claim the number of cases could be ten fold or more than what the "official" numbers are.

This one gives a range number stating the number of actual cases could be as much as 30% of the population:

Antibody surveys suggesting vast undercount of coronavirus infections may be unreliable

Critics question accuracy of tests and media promotion before full results are published

www.sciencemag.org

The other sources I referenced above, if you read more closely, state that antibody immunity could be conferred for, possibly, years after being exposed.

Whatever you believe about the current state of the population's exposure, herd immunity is going to happen.

 

[QuazyQuinton]

Whatever you believe about the current state of the population's exposure, herd immunity is going to happen.

If individual immunity only lasts 3 months as somebody posted above, we will never achieve herd immunity. Aaaaand we're back to the things we don't know....

QQ

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Whatever you believe about the current state of the population's exposure, herd immunity is going to happen.

That's a pretty definitive statement. It's hard to say. There is no herd immunity to influenza and colds, but I have also read numerous articles that postulate as the corona virus mutates it will lose lethality, and as people are exposed to various strains of it their susceptibility to it will decrease.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

One thing that is starting to bother me more and more is the backlash against the professional/expert folks who don't have all the answers. They don't have all the answers because they're still figuring it out. Their answers change sometimes because they get new information. This is not conspiracy, it's called science.

Very well said. Unfortunately, when this happens far too many people then fill in the blanks with their own bullshit.

Many folks are so worried and paranoid about being duped (or they are simply arrogant and think they are smarter than everyone else), that everything becomes a conspiracy theory, and we as a nation become much dumber as a result.

 

[Hunting Wife]

There are studies out there that claim the number of cases could be ten fold or more than what the "official" numbers are.

This one gives a range number stating the number of actual cases could be as much as 30% of the population:

Antibody surveys suggesting vast undercount of coronavirus infections may be unreliable

Critics question accuracy of tests and media promotion before full results are published

www.sciencemag.org

The other sources I referenced above, if you read more closely, state that antibody immunity could be conferred for, possibly, years after being exposed.

Whatever you believe about the current state of the population's exposure, herd immunity is going to happen.

Did you even read the article? Direct quote:

The survey results, from Germany, the Netherlands, and several locations in the United States, find that anywhere from 2% to 30% of certain populations have already been infected with the virus. The numbers imply that confirmed COVID-19 cases are an even smaller fraction of the true number of people infected than many had estimated and that the vast majority of infections are mild. But many scientists question the accuracy of the antibody tests and complain that several of the research groups announced their findings in the press rather than in preprints or published papers, where their data could be scrutinized. Critics are also wary because some of the researchers are on record advocating for an early end to lockdowns and other control measures, and claim the new prevalence figures support that call.

Some observers warn the coronavirus’ march through the population has only just begun, and that even if the antibody results can be believed, they don’t justify easing controls. “You would have hoped for 45% or even 60% positive,” says Mark Perkins, a diagnostics expert at the World Health Organization. “That would mean that there is lots of silent transmission, and a lot of immunity in the population. It now looks like, sadly, that’s not true. Even the high numbers are relatively small.”

The many different academic and commercial tests for coronavirus antibodies are still being refined and validated. They can show whether someone’s immune system has encountered the virus. But because no one knows what level of antibodies, if any, confers protection against the new virus, the tests can’t tell whether a person is immune to a future infection. And no one knows how long such immunity might last.

The entire article is saying exactly what @QuazyQuinton said, pointing out flaws in a lot of the antibody research being published directly through the media rather than going through peer review, and why it is unreliable, and saying herd immunity may not be shaping up the way we hoped it would. It is basically an argument against everything you just said.

 

[fmnjr]

Did you even read the article? Direct quote:



The entire article is saying exactly what @QuazyQuinton said, pointing out flaws in a lot of the antibody research being published directly through the media rather than going through peer review, and why it is unreliable, and saying herd immunity may not be shaping up the way we hoped it would. It is basically an argument against everything you just said.

Oops, Biden moment, somehow I pasted the wrong link and didn’t notice. Here’s the one I meant to post: https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news...ents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Oops, Biden moment, somehow I pasted the wrong link and didn’t notice. Here’s the one I meant to post: https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news...ents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

When adjusted for Santa Clara County's population and demographics, the number of positive results suggests that between 2.49% and 4.16% of the county's 1.93 million residents have had COVID-19.

Still a very far cry from 40% of the populace. In fact, that's about on par with nationwide numbers, which supports my earlier supposition that we're not even close to the cusp of herd immunity (if that even really exists)

 

[Hunting Wife]

Oops, Biden moment, somehow I pasted the wrong link and didn’t notice. Here’s the one I meant to post: https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news...ents-have-likely-been-infected-by-coronavirus

Palo Alto Online...soooo I’ll take that as a hard no to reading the first article then.

 

[rwc101]

Palo Alto Online...soooo I’ll take that as a hard no to reading the first article then.

I got The Blaze, so...

 

[fmnjr]

I got The Blaze, so...

maybe a liberal POV makes it more palatable to you:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html

 

[Deleted member 38069]

We need a good old 6.5 creedmoor thread. 12 pages? This thread is dead, it just hasn't fallen over yet.

 

[Glockster]

Since this is in the joke forum, I would tell you a covid joke but there a 99.6% chance you wouldn’t get it.

Lame joke of the day there folks.

 

[rwc101]

maybe a liberal POV makes it more palatable to you:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/world/coronavirus-covid-19.html

No. Everything you've posted contradicts the bold claim that we're nearing herd immunity quickly. Read past the first two paragraphs of articles you post.

"Protection against reinfection cannot be fully confirmed until there is proof that most people who encounter the virus a second time are actually able to keep it at bay, Dr. Pepper said."

 

[LWC55]

It may not be herd immunity. But whatever is happening in Sweden seems to be working pretty well.

 

[406dn]

I think that their neighbor,, Norway, has a better set of numbers to report.

Norway's deaths per million is 1/10 of Sweden's.

 

[LWC55]

I think that their neighbor,, Norway, has a better set of numbers to report.

Norway's deaths per million is 1/10 of Sweden's.

I won't argue that Norway's numbers aren't better overall. Both countries' numbers look pretty similar the last few weeks. Norway has the potential to have outbreaks and Sweden seems like they are on the other side. Less than 10% mask wearing also in the Nordic countries. I guess a different philosophy.

 

[SAJ-99]

I won't argue that Norway's numbers aren't better overall. Both countries' numbers look pretty similar the last few weeks. Norway has the potential to have outbreaks and Sweden seems like they are on the other side. Less than 10% mask wearing also in the Nordic countries. I guess a different philosophy.

and different genetics in Nordic countries. Two years from now after all this is over and we have scientists study the numbers without the rush to get their name in the press, we will discover some amazing things. And hopefully learn from them for the next time.