Colorado Unit 18 Conditions following fire in 2020

[WVmike]

I will be going to Colorado OTC next year for my first elk hunt and I have been researching units. I have a couple narrowed down but was trying to pick up more bits of information about the units in particular. I know unit 18 had some pretty bad fires in that area in 2020 and was trying to see if there is any regrowth coming about. I read on here and from other places that the fires burned really hot which is usually no good for regrowth. Any info would be appreciated.

 

[Thegreatwapiti]

Burn scar has turned into a major flood plain. Google "Larimer County Flooding."

 

[Oak]

None of unit 18 is in Larimer County. Opposite sides of the divide.

No info on how vegetation is coming back, but here is a map of soil burn severity for the East Troublesome Fire. It's such a large fire I'm sure there is a wide range of conditions. Some on here live closer and can probably give you a better idea.

 

[JF35]

None of unit 18 is in Larimer County. Opposite sides of the divide.

No info on how vegetation is coming back, but here is a map of soil burn severity for the East Troublesome Fire. It's such a large fire I'm sure there is a wide range of conditions. Some on here live closer and can probably give you a better idea.

Wide range is key. In my area of the West large fires are the normal thing. The really big ones have various intensity levels. There are wet draws that didn't burn and islands of timber that are still green. These small areas tend to hold lots of game. If one can find them one should be in for a good hunt. I do not shy away from a burn unless it's a moonscape

 

[WIbiggame]

The fire and regen is going to be the least of your worries. Have seen 2 different threads in the last couple weeks on here about this fire. And the burn severity map shared numerous times, so any place that wasn't torched by fire will be by bugle tubes and hoochie momma's.

Probably a better idea to find a new unit going to be a busy one. Best of luck.

 

[Oak]

The fire and regen is going to be the least of your worries. Have seen 2 different threads in the last couple weeks on here about this fire. And the burn severity map shared numerous times, so any place that wasn't torched by fire will be by bugle tubes and hoochie momma's.

Probably a better idea to find a new unit going to be a busy one. Best of luck.

We have 200,000+ elk hunters. They gotta go somewhere.

 

[WIbiggame]

We have 200,000+ elk hunters. They gotta go somewhere.

Not arguing that or you sharing the burn severity map. Just letting the OP know that by posting a unit/fire specific question that pops up on a Google search the burn is going to be the least of his/her worries.

Looks like a great area spent a lot of time looking it over. Went about getting info in a little different way but to each their own.

 

[GBrokx]

I was camping on the eastern side of the burn in 18 this summer. You could see the grass coming in nicely in the burned areas near the road. Can't speak for the center of the burn where it was likely hotter, but I would imagine grass, aka food, is growing back in there as well.

 

[squirrel]

Where the winds kicked u to 70mph there isn't much left (and this was the majority of the acreage). Black stumps without even a horizontal limb.

You don't ask the secondarily important question. How many elk still live there. Based on last years winter ( a very tough one where everything had to come down low to survive) that answer would appear to be a couple hundred.

And yet the print tags button continues to be depressed, even for class B. Apparently those elk are chosen for extermination by their official guardians, rather than interrupt the revenue stream they represent.

For a first time elk hunter I would have a hard time choosing a less likely destination than that one. But you can save big on Camo though, just pick yourself up some black sweats in Walmart.

Last years pressure was obscene as everyone flocked in to take advantage of all that "fresh green growth"

I did notice a lot more black stains on llama panniers than I did red staining, in fact there was zero red staining.

 

[Oak]

And yet the print tags button continues to be depressed, even for class B. Apparently those elk are chosen for extermination by their official guardians, rather than interrupt the revenue stream they represent.

Can't kill what isn't there. Money in the bank.

A look at the questionable harvest stats shows a whopping 11% success rate for rifle hunters. Remove the PLO cow hunts and the success rate is 9%. Hunters spent 23,997 days hunting elk in 18 last year and killed 482 elk, almost 50 days per kill.

 

[Nameless Range]

.... almost 50 days per kill.

Those are pretty good stats for Montana...

 

[TOGIE]

i can definitely think of worse units for a first time elk hunt than 18.

i can think of quite a few actually.

 

[Oak]

i can definitely think of worse units for a first time elk hunt than 18.

i can think of quite a few actually.

That's the beauty of unlimited tags!

 

[old roper 42]

Where the winds kicked u to 70mph there isn't much left (and this was the majority of the acreage). Black stumps without even a horizontal limb.

You don't ask the secondarily important question. How many elk still live there. Based on last years winter ( a very tough one where everything had to come down low to survive) that answer would appear to be a couple hundred.

And yet the print tags button continues to be depressed, even for class B. Apparently those elk are chosen for extermination by their official guardians, rather than interrupt the revenue stream they represent.

For a first time elk hunter I would have a hard time choosing a less likely destination than that one. But you can save big on Camo though, just pick yourself up some black sweats in Walmart.

Last years pressure was obscene as everyone flocked in to take advantage of all that "fresh green growth"

I did notice a lot more black stains on llama panniers than I did red staining, in fact there was zero red staining.

Isn't unit 18 part of Middle Park? If you have bad winter it happen to all unit's in Middle Park?

Middle Park (Colorado basin) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Isn't there lot of hay grown back in off hwy 34 from Willow Creek north?

 

[TOGIE]

squirrel is a broken record on "all the elk in 18 burned up and the rest died due to a bad winter"

i kinda put more trust in the guys with helicopters that say they didn't all burn up and then the stragglers didnt all die of starvation.

the questionable harvest stats have always been kinda dismal in 18 anyway

 

[WVmike]

Where the winds kicked u to 70mph there isn't much left (and this was the majority of the acreage). Black stumps without even a horizontal limb.

You don't ask the secondarily important question. How many elk still live there. Based on last years winter ( a very tough one where everything had to come down low to survive) that answer would appear to be a couple hundred.

And yet the print tags button continues to be depressed, even for class B. Apparently those elk are chosen for extermination by their official guardians, rather than interrupt the revenue stream they represent.

For a first time elk hunter I would have a hard time choosing a less likely destination than that one. But you can save big on Camo though, just pick yourself up some black sweats in Walmart.

Last years pressure was obscene as everyone flocked in to take advantage of all that "fresh green growth"

I did notice a lot more black stains on llama panniers than I did red staining, in fact there was zero red staining.

This is why I posted this question. Just gathering info for potential places to go. I have been comparing statistics with units and this post helps to knock this one of the list. If I could go out and get boots on the ground I would but it's a long drive from WV for a hiking trip.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

squirrel is a broken record on "all the elk in 18 burned up and the rest died due to a bad winter"

i kinda put more trust in the guys with helicopters that say they didn't all burn up and then the stragglers didnt all die of starvation.

the questionable harvest stats have always been kinda dismal in 18 anyway

I wonder what his home unit is

 

[ridn9high]

Can't kill what isn't there. Money in the bank.

A look at the questionable harvest stats shows a whopping 11% success rate for rifle hunters. Remove the PLO cow hunts and the success rate is 9%. Hunters spent 23,997 days hunting elk in 18 last year and killed 482 elk, almost 50 days per kill.

How is CPW coming up with these stats? We all know they’re not accurate!
For example, last year friends and family had elk and deer tags for multiple seasons and a handful of units. Not one of us was sent an email or got a phone call from the CPW to fill out a survey on whether we were successful or not, how many days we were in the field or any other info. Their stats must be pulled out of their butt because we’ve had quite a few tags the past 10 years and never had to fill out a survey.

 

[TOGIE]

How is CPW coming up with these stats? We all know they’re not accurate!
For example, last year friends and family had elk and deer tags for multiple seasons and a handful of units. Not one of us was sent an email or got a phone call from the CPW to fill out a survey on whether we were successful or not, how many days we were in the field or any other info. Their stats must be pulled out of their butt because we’ve had quite a few tags the past 10 years and never had to fill out a survey.

the surveying methods and statistical methods to put harvest stats together by cpw have been discussed ad nauseum. they sample - which means not everyone gets a phone call.

so, whoever or whatever ass they came out of, they represent more than nothin, better than nothin, and the biologists do utilize them. take with whatever size salt you want.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

the surveying methods and statistical methods to put harvest stats together by cpw have been discussed ad nauseum. they sample - which means not everyone gets a phone call.

so, whoever or whatever ass they came out of, they represent more than nothin, better than nothin, and the biologists do utilize them. take with whatever size salt you want.

Accurate by hunt code/DAU not Unit, they then break them out by unit, but the random samples weren't conducted by unit so they are 100% garbage and worth less than nothing because they are misleading.

EG, E-13... So for say a limited season muzzy EE028O1M, there are 465 tag.

In reality; 300 hunt 28, 100 hunt 37, 35 hunt 13 and 30 hunt 371

36% of hunters are sampled statewide ... so assuming the DAU, is average ...165 total respondents.

The statistical average would be ~10 respondents for 371... but many times you get 3 or 0 or 20.

Let's say in 2018 you get 2, neither of those folks killed elk, but CPW did ask which unit and knows they were unsuccessful in 371, but N=2 out of 30 is not a representative sample... but CPW publishes 0% success rate in 2018 for 371 anyway.

Now in reality 15 of the hunters in 371 killed bulls, so the real success rate is 50%, ie wildly f-ing different.


Stratified Random sampling, is great for STATEWIDE results or even for herds (DAUs), which is the intention of the methodology but it's asinine to publish highly specific results... which is why we need mandatory hunt reports like most states have.

It's like Gallup saying not only that Biden has a X approval rating nationwide, but that based on that survey he has Y approval rating in Wolf Point, MT.