noharleyyet
Well-known member
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
Wildabeest
Well-known member
Or PLTR when I told you to. I think you still owe me a steak dinner
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406dn
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 12, 2019
- Messages
- 2,572
How would that happen? I retired just as she became the Fed chair. I caught and rode a great ride in the market.
I think you are letting your own biases cloud reality.
A disaster would be a president whose tariffs are more volatile than the stock market.
Trump wants rates much lower and to drill baby drill. Said the cut this week should have been "at least doubled" and that rates should be down to "1% and maybe lower than that" within a year. Sounds like the opposite of what you want. Interesting you never mention that.
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Of course trump wants low interest rates and low gas prices. That's what every President would want. My comment about what was best for me personally was in response to SAJ-99 saying, "This argument is odd given you would be absolutely fine with a political animal with a clear bias toward what you think you want."
I have a fair amount in cds right now as well as stock in an o&g company. What trump wants, hurts my portfolio to some degree. What I want, is what is best for the country. Right now, I believe a lower fed rate and low oil prices are what is best for the country. I can wait this little speed bump in my portfolios out for now.
Understand?
BigHornRam
Well-known member
EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) https://share.google/uniXdCZ9Ap8P2um7f
No, I don't. We just don't agree on much.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
From the Financial Times. Not sure I agree on the conclusion as Millennials lived in the parents basement at a pretty good clip way more than 5 yrs ago, but there is definitely some chasing going on and the market structure seems a little wobbly.
"Over the past five years, the number of shares traded each day in the US has risen by 60 per cent to around 18bn. The retail share of short-dated stock options has grown from a third to more than half. Young people are succumbing to “financial nihilism” — indulging in speculation because they have given up on buying a home."
"Over the past five years, the number of shares traded each day in the US has risen by 60 per cent to around 18bn. The retail share of short-dated stock options has grown from a third to more than half. Young people are succumbing to “financial nihilism” — indulging in speculation because they have given up on buying a home."
PoleX
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- Mar 1, 2025
- Messages
- 216
I wonder how much of it has to do with all the resources we have at our fingertips now vs. 20 years ago. I'm not sure my in-laws or parents even know what a option contract is...Now I can watch a youtube video, download robinhood and be dabbling in stock options within a half day of discovering what they are. Trading platforms and smart phones have made the barrier to entry much easier for people to trade. It seems like (just my observation) from a macro level, plenty of houses are still being built and sold so I'm not sure I agree the increase of market participation is driven by people giving up on home ownership as much as it becoming a legitimate alternative to home ownership.
My oldest son and his group of friends all play with day trading/options. All recent graduates with Finance degrees who participated in a college program that teaches trading skill. I hear about the winners and they’re quiet on the losers. I asked my son if the group was beating the S&P average return trading and got a slow No.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
All of it.
I don't think it has anything to do with not being able to buy a house. That was just a hot-take. Might as well have said Can't afford a house so betting on Fanduel or Draft Kings.
An example from today, SPY at $674.6. The 675 option contract expiring in 4hrs was trading at $130.There were 4688 open contracts. 4688 x 100 shrs x 675 = $316,440,000 of notional value. That is just one strike on ONE DAILY CONTRACT. The quarterly contract expiring Friday has over 18,000 contracts open. The point: it is all computers. There is no way a human can keep up with trading this. And the option market is the tail wagging the dog.
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Im sure Im a bit jaded because I take markets seriously, but if these kids can’t afford a house and just want to bet on the stupidest things like sports and prediction markets I hope they lose it all when someone comes up with a way to scam the entire system.
www.businessinsider.com
Coinbase CEO explains his earnings call stunt, where he trolled prediction markets: 'I didn't trade on it, of course'
"Well, I didn't trade on it, of course," Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said about rattling off the crypto words that traders were betting he'd say.
www.businessinsider.com
thusby
Well-known member
Word.Im sure Im a bit jaded because I take markets seriously, but if these kids can’t afford a house and just want to bet on the stupidest things like sports and prediction markets I hope they lose it all when someone comes up with a way to scam the entire system.
Coinbase CEO explains his earnings call stunt, where he trolled prediction markets: 'I didn't trade on it, of course'
"Well, I didn't trade on it, of course," Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said about rattling off the crypto words that traders were betting he'd say.
Im sure Im a bit jaded because I take markets seriously, but if these kids can’t afford a house and just want to bet on the stupidest things like sports and prediction markets I hope they lose it all when someone comes up with a way to scam the entire system.
Coinbase CEO explains his earnings call stunt, where he trolled prediction markets: 'I didn't trade on it, of course'
"Well, I didn't trade on it, of course," Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said about rattling off the crypto words that traders were betting he'd say.
the only thing worse than losing it all is not having some fun in the process. come on SAJ!
SAJ-99
Well-known member
They will blame someone else, or the government. kind of like the financial crisis when home-flippers were up to their necks in debt and blamed the banks for giving them the loan.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
BigHornRam
Well-known member
Dragonfly Energy Implements One-for-Ten Reverse Stock Split - TipRanks.com https://share.google/xV04K8DsdhQavavWq
They did it again. I might be able to buy a cup of coffee if I liquidate now!
They did it again. I might be able to buy a cup of coffee if I liquidate now!
i mean, the banks definitely should (did?) shoulder some blame there.
i dunno, maybe i'm a different breed, but when my wife and i bought our first home and the bank approved us for something as much as like a 1.5+ million dollar purchase I was kinda like "wow you guys really haven't learned anything, have you? dumbasses."
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Some? Oh sure. There is plenty of blame to go around. The NINJA loans were a huge problem, but the vast majority of them were done by non-bank lenders like Countrywide, IndyMac and host of others. Congress gets some blame for not bailing out Lehman, which caused a fire sale of assets to meet liquidity demands that cascaded through the financial system. But I know funds that bought plenty of mortgage pool for $0.20 on the $ and they ended up getting back over $0.90. It was a very complex situation where people tend to look for a single villain. The reality is we were all in on it, but no one wants to hear that. I always chuckle when someone the borrower doesn't get blamed for anything. But I guess we do the same thing with drugs. We blame the drug dealer and say the user has a disease and needs help.
You default yet? The numbers are the numbers. I'm sure the lender is still over-collateralized in LTV. But I also chuckle when I hear people say they want home prices to come down.
