Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[noharleyyet]

 

[Wildabeest]

Should have bought Amazon, Google, Tesla, ect, stock like everyone else did, I suppose.

Or PLTR when I told you to. I think you still owe me a steak dinner .

 

[406dn]

I didn't get any benefit from the Obama/Yellen low fed rate years. Yellen is a prime example of a political stooge. She was a disaster.

How would that happen? I retired just as she became the Fed chair. I caught and rode a great ride in the market.

I think you are letting your own biases cloud reality.

A disaster would be a president whose tariffs are more volatile than the stock market.

 

[Flatrock]

Right now, high interest rates would be in my best interest. High oil prices, too, for that matter.

Trump wants rates much lower and to drill baby drill. Said the cut this week should have been "at least doubled" and that rates should be down to "1% and maybe lower than that" within a year. Sounds like the opposite of what you want. Interesting you never mention that.

 

[brymoore]

There’s no drilling when oil is below $60 a barrel and Texas is slowly going bankrupt.

 

[BigHornRam]

Trump wants rates much lower and to drill baby drill. Said the cut this week should have been "at least doubled" and that rates should be down to "1% and maybe lower than that" within a year. Sounds like the opposite of what you want. Interesting you never mention that.

Of course trump wants low interest rates and low gas prices. That's what every President would want. My comment about what was best for me personally was in response to SAJ-99 saying, "This argument is odd given you would be absolutely fine with a political animal with a clear bias toward what you think you want."

I have a fair amount in cds right now as well as stock in an o&g company. What trump wants, hurts my portfolio to some degree. What I want, is what is best for the country. Right now, I believe a lower fed rate and low oil prices are what is best for the country. I can wait this little speed bump in my portfolios out for now.

Understand?

 

[BigHornRam]

There’s no drilling when oil is below $60 a barrel and Texas is slowly going bankrupt.

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will decrease slightly in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) https://share.google/uniXdCZ9Ap8P2um7f

 

[Flatrock]

Understand?

No, I don't. We just don't agree on much.

 

[SAJ-99]

From the Financial Times. Not sure I agree on the conclusion as Millennials lived in the parents basement at a pretty good clip way more than 5 yrs ago, but there is definitely some chasing going on and the market structure seems a little wobbly.

"Over the past five years, the number of shares traded each day in the US has risen by 60 per cent to around 18bn. The retail share of short-dated stock options has grown from a third to more than half. Young people are succumbing to “financial nihilism” — indulging in speculation because they have given up on buying a home."

 

[PoleX]

From the Financial Times. Not sure I agree on the conclusion as Millennials lived in the parents basement at a pretty good clip way more than 5 yrs ago, but there is definitely some chasing going on and the market structure seems a little wobbly.

"Over the past five years, the number of shares traded each day in the US has risen by 60 per cent to around 18bn. The retail share of short-dated stock options has grown from a third to more than half. Young people are succumbing to “financial nihilism” — indulging in speculation because they have given up on buying a home."

I wonder how much of it has to do with all the resources we have at our fingertips now vs. 20 years ago. I'm not sure my in-laws or parents even know what a option contract is...Now I can watch a youtube video, download robinhood and be dabbling in stock options within a half day of discovering what they are. Trading platforms and smart phones have made the barrier to entry much easier for people to trade. It seems like (just my observation) from a macro level, plenty of houses are still being built and sold so I'm not sure I agree the increase of market participation is driven by people giving up on home ownership as much as it becoming a legitimate alternative to home ownership.

 

[brymoore]

I wonder how much of it has to do with all the resources we have at our fingertips now vs. 20 years ago. I'm not sure my in-laws or parents even know what a option contract is...Now I can watch a youtube video, download robinhood and be dabbling in stock options within a half day of discovering what they are. Trading platforms and smart phones have made the barrier to entry much easier for people to trade. It seems like (just my observation) from a macro level, plenty of houses are still being built and sold so I'm not sure I agree the increase of market participation is driven by people giving up on home ownership as much as it becoming a legitimate alternative to home ownership.

My oldest son and his group of friends all play with day trading/options. All recent graduates with Finance degrees who participated in a college program that teaches trading skill. I hear about the winners and they’re quiet on the losers. I asked my son if the group was beating the S&P average return trading and got a slow No.

 

[SAJ-99]

I wonder how much of it has to do with all the resources we have at our fingertips now vs. 20 years ago.

All of it.
I don't think it has anything to do with not being able to buy a house. That was just a hot-take. Might as well have said Can't afford a house so betting on Fanduel or Draft Kings.
An example from today, SPY at $674.6. The 675 option contract expiring in 4hrs was trading at $130.There were 4688 open contracts. 4688 x 100 shrs x 675 = $316,440,000 of notional value. That is just one strike on ONE DAILY CONTRACT. The quarterly contract expiring Friday has over 18,000 contracts open. The point: it is all computers. There is no way a human can keep up with trading this. And the option market is the tail wagging the dog.