Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[rogerthat]

How many are investing in VDE and XLE in Energy ?
Strong Buy just before the China Reopening!

Yeah I’m fully sold out of o&g except for a couple tanker stocks. Sold PR at 10.67. I had bought that when it was cdev during the pandemic low at $0.33. Fairly solid 3 year return on that one

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

Here's a good tune for all you oil patch investors to get you pumped.

DFLI is coming back to life!

 

[BigHornRam]

View attachment 269466

Go away killjoy!

 

[BigHornRam]

Yeah I’m fully sold out of o&g except for a couple tanker stocks. Sold PR at 10.67. I had bought that when it was cdev during the pandemic low at $0.33. Fairly solid 3 year return on that one

I decided to ride the 3k + a year dividend gravy train and wait for the next gusher. Better than buying zombie banks right now.

 

[Red-Team 98]

Pacwest next bank to fall !
People pulling cash out no deposits going in , only propped up by Feds.

 

[Red-Team 98]

Yeah I’m fully sold out of o&g except for a couple tanker stocks. Sold PR at 10.67. I had bought that when it was cdev during the pandemic low at $0.33. Fairly solid 3 year return on that one

Big demand by Chinese for Super Tankers.
Last 2 years great returns on XLE / VDE over 100% expect a great 2nd half 2023 in Energy.

 

[SAJ-99]

Thinking out loud here

Looking for 25bps today and a conference where Powell talks about a pause. The conference is more important than the rate. Fed knows that the run to put excess deposits into Tbills and money markets is restrictive monetary policy at light-speed. Those deposits are the $$$'s used to make loans. Now that they are in assets like TBills, money market funds, etc, they can't be leant. This means higher rates and spreads on mortgages and car loans and HELOCs. Does the Fed acknowledge this? They can see bank flows real time, but we can't. Stocks are back to looking pretty expensive at 18.5x trailing and forward earnings still seem high, even more so now with bank problems. Anything perceived as dovish that causes stocks to rise sharply, I will most likely fade.

To @wllm post, energy curve is flat and oversupplied on front end, but at least the space is cheap. Should start refilling the SPR at these prices which will help take some of the excess off? The recession odds have increased and that is putting pressure on the space, so not without risk. Watching sentiment in precious metals get better while sentiment in grains tanks. Big fund repositioning?

I'm keeping powder dry until I see a reaction on the decision and if nothing jumps out I will listen to the conference and see what happens.

 

[TOGIE]

Thinking out loud here

Looking for 25bps today and a conference where Powell talks about a pause. The conference is more important than the rate. Fed knows that the run to put excess deposits into Tbills and money markets is restrictive monetary policy at light-speed. Those deposits are the $$$'s used to make loans. Now that they are in assets like TBills, money market funds, etc, they can't be leant. This means higher rates and spreads on mortgages and car loans and HELOCs. Does the Fed acknowledge this? They can see bank flows real time, but we can't. Stocks are back to looking pretty expensive at 18.5x trailing and forward earnings still seem high, even more so now with bank problems. Anything perceived as dovish that causes stocks to rise sharply, I will most likely fade.

To @wllm post, energy curve is flat and oversupplied on front end, but at least the space is cheap. Should start refilling the SPR at these prices which will help take some of the excess off? The recession odds have increased and that is putting pressure on the space, so not without risk. Watching sentiment in precious metals get better while sentiment in grains tanks. Big fund repositioning?

I'm keeping powder dry until I see a reaction on the decision and if nothing jumps out I will listen to the conference and see what happens.

you forgot to mention GME up 35-40%

 

[noharleyyet]

Thinking out loud here

Looking for 25bps today and a conference where Powell talks about a pause. The conference is more important than the rate. Fed knows that the run to put excess deposits into Tbills and money markets is restrictive monetary policy at light-speed. Those deposits are the $$$'s used to make loans. Now that they are in assets like TBills, money market funds, etc, they can't be leant. This means higher rates and spreads on mortgages and car loans and HELOCs. Does the Fed acknowledge this? They can see bank flows real time, but we can't. Stocks are back to looking pretty expensive at 18.5x trailing and forward earnings still seem high, even more so now with bank problems. Anything perceived as dovish that causes stocks to rise sharply, I will most likely fade.

To @wllm post, energy curve is flat and oversupplied on front end, but at least the space is cheap. Should start refilling the SPR at these prices which will help take some of the excess off? The recession odds have increased and that is putting pressure on the space, so not without risk. Watching sentiment in precious metals get better while sentiment in grains tanks. Big fund repositioning?

I'm keeping powder dry until I see a reaction on the decision and if nothing jumps out I will listen to the conference and see what happens.

Spot on . . .

 

[Handlebar]

Thinking out loud here

Looking for 25bps today and a conference where Powell talks about a pause. The conference is more important than the rate. Fed knows that the run to put excess deposits into Tbills and money markets is restrictive monetary policy at light-speed. Those deposits are the $$$'s used to make loans. Now that they are in assets like TBills, money market funds, etc, they can't be leant. This means higher rates and spreads on mortgages and car loans and HELOCs. Does the Fed acknowledge this? They can see bank flows real time, but we can't. Stocks are back to looking pretty expensive at 18.5x trailing and forward earnings still seem high, even more so now with bank problems. Anything perceived as dovish that causes stocks to rise sharply, I will most likely fade.

To @wllm post, energy curve is flat and oversupplied on front end, but at least the space is cheap. Should start refilling the SPR at these prices which will help take some of the excess off? The recession odds have increased and that is putting pressure on the space, so not without risk. Watching sentiment in precious metals get better while sentiment in grains tanks. Big fund repositioning?

I'm keeping powder dry until I see a reaction on the decision and if nothing jumps out I will listen to the conference and see what happens.

So this chart today,
When do banks begin raising the interest on deposit to match the money markets etc. If they don't and lending ceases should we be worried more about deflation instead of inflation?

 

[SAJ-99]

you forgot to mention GME up 35-40%

I try not to think about things that have no explanation.

So this chart today,
When do banks begin raising the interest on deposit to match the money markets etc. If they don't and lending ceases should we be worried more about deflation instead of inflation?

Exactly. Any area that is dependent on leverage (borrowing) is concerning, like REITs, particularly commercial REITs.

 

[Handlebar]

I try not to think about things that have no explanation.


Exactly. Any area that is dependent on leverage (borrowing) is concerning, like REITs, particularly commercial REITs.

Would REITs be the major thing you would be concerned about. Since we are a debt based economy I can see everything slowing down significantly, homes, cars etc.

 

[SAJ-99]

Would REITs be the major thing you would be concerned about. Since we are a debt based economy I can see everything slowing down significantly, homes, cars etc.

Agree. Those areas get hit, residential homes activity already have, but I picked Commercial REITs as far as a "crisis" that might cause larger problems and spill-over into other areas. In addition lots of Credit Unions make loans to businesses and keep those loans on their books. They may see problems, too. It is just a place to keep an eye on. Default and delinquencies remain low, but that data tends to lag.

 

[rogerthat]

I think the fed nailed it for now with another 0.25 hike. Guess we will see

 

[noharleyyet]

Highlights from the Fed meeting:

• Fed Lifts Rates by a Quarter-Point
• Central Bank Hints in Statement That the End of Hikes Is Near
• Powell Is Confident in the Banking System
• Chairman Calls SVB Failure an Outlier
• In the Latest 'Dot Plot, Officials Cut Forecast for Growth
• Follow the Stock Market's Reaction

Fed Meeting Today: Central Bank Raises Rates, Dot Plot Out, Powell Speaks, Stock Market Falls

Follow live coverage of the FOMC policy statement, interest-rate decision, summary of economic projections, and other announcements today. Also, watch the news conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell live here.

www.barrons.com

 

[SAJ-99]

Highlights from the Fed meeting:

• Fed Lifts Rates by a Quarter-Point
• Central Bank Hints in Statement That the End of Hikes Is Near
• Powell Is Confident in the Banking System
• Chairman Calls SVB Failure an Outlier
• In the Latest 'Dot Plot, Officials Cut Forecast for Growth
• Follow the Stock Market's Reaction

Fed Meeting Today: Central Bank Raises Rates, Dot Plot Out, Powell Speaks, Stock Market Falls

Follow live coverage of the FOMC policy statement, interest-rate decision, summary of economic projections, and other announcements today. Also, watch the news conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell live here.

www.barrons.com

I did a bunch of nothing, which may be the best trade. I note it's never a good sign when the Chairman mentions your asset class (Commercial RE) and says everything there is fine and stable, and those equities lead the way down for the day (-3.6%).

 

[NDGuy]

.25 increase

 

[SAJ-99]

Well, the Caucus has spoken. This is going to be an interesting next few months.

 

[TOGIE]

Well, the Caucus has spoken. This is going to be an interesting next few months.

View attachment 269674

when anyone in government uses the term "woke"

i wonder if they would put the word in their legislation too

 

[BigHornRam]

All is well!