Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[redwoood]

The volatility has been great for covered calls as well.

Do you guys ever hold positions and sell covered calls? I've been a bit lazy of late and just selling calls.

 

[SAJ-99]

The volatility has been great for covered calls as well.

Do you guys ever hold positions and sell covered calls? I've been a bit lazy of late and just selling calls.

Yep, especially in “recovery” stocks like Disney, JP Morgan, Nike, etc. it probably hasn’t been a great strategy in high flying tech names. I think it helps me be patient. Pick a price I would be happy to get rid of the stock and sell the call. The bump in Disney today wasn’t what I was expected, but still have a couple of weeks to see if the froth comes off.

 

[redwoood]

Definitely helps on the patience.

 

[Tiredofthebickering]

Bump based on Apple hitting $2T and the S&P hitting a record. Thoughts?

 

[TOGIE]

Bump based on Apple hitting $2T and the S&P hitting a record. Thoughts?

i have a bit of cash for a house down payment that's been invested by my family's investment manager. i'm going to ask that it be pulled out here shortly, and not cause i'm buying a house now.

 

[Tiredofthebickering]

i have a bit of cash for a house down payment that's been invested by my family's investment manager. i'm going to ask that it be pulled out here shortly, and not cause i'm buying a house now.

I'm leaving my money in there right now and continuing to invest, but I've been more diligent than normal about setting stop-loss orders.

 

[jabber]

I'm about 15K away from a milestone number in my 401. I am strongly considering at either the milestone point or Aug 31, whichever comes first, to move at least half if not all into the guaranteed fund we have until after the election. Between the normal fall fall and the possibility of an election fall, I believe that is the prudent thing to do. We'll see if it happens or not.

 

[SAJ-99]

It gives the talking heads something to jabber on about for hours. AAPL isn't much different than other mega tech names. Investors see stability in earnings and bid it up. PE at end of 2019 was a little under 20x, today 35x. It's almost 7% of S&P 500, so almost everyone owns a little of it. A little too rich for me to overweight here, but I'm not rooting against it for sure.

 

[TOGIE]

I'm leaving my money in there right now and continuing to invest, but I've been more diligent than normal about setting stop-loss orders.

we do intend to use it next year, so i kinda like the idea of just taking the gains it's gotten and locking into a CD to forget about it until around this time next year. i'm sure there could be plenty to gain between now and then. i'm just squeamish with setting record highs this shortly into a pandemic that's not over, historic cash infusions to society and an incoming election. not being an active investor and with it's purpose being a house, not retirement, i'm fine with just taking it out

 

[npaden]

I really am struggling to know where the sell and go away place is as well. My 401k was down over 34% at the low on March 23rd and it is already in positive territory for the year again. I really figured it was going to take 2 or 3 years to recover what I had lost which was what it took to get back from the 2008 financial crisis.

The numbers can't continue like this but I have never been one to actually try to "time the market".

I did move some $ in that were sitting on the sidelines back in March and am looking at a nice profit from that, but not sure that I really want to sell off right now on those either. As crazy as it sounds, I think there are still some good values out there. Of course I'm also holding some tech stocks that are WAY overvalued but those things keep going up, I can't explain that.

 

[jabber]

I'm about 15K away from a milestone number in my 401. I am strongly considering at either the milestone point or Aug 31, whichever comes first, to move at least half if not all into the guaranteed fund we have until after the election. Between the normal fall fall and the possibility of an election fall, I believe that is the prudent thing to do. We'll see if it happens or not.

Reached that number two days ago, it went up a hair yesterday. Moved 50% of my 401 into the guaranteed fund that we have today. Will probably look at moving the remaining amount into it at the end of September. I am anticipating a serious drop prior to the elections. I have to wait 30 days before I can move it a second time, so it will be ready to jump back in as soon as Trump is re-elected

 

[Irrelevant]

Investors should be wary of Warren Buffett’s crash warning

Leaving the party too early can cost you as much as leaving too late

www.marketwatch.com

As a relative noob I found this rather interesting to read

 

[SAJ-99]

Investors should be wary of Warren Buffett’s crash warning

Leaving the party too early can cost you as much as leaving too late

www.marketwatch.com

As a relative noob I found this rather interesting to read

The theory has been around for a while. It looks great on a long-term backtest because it cuts off the deepest part of the dip. I think it has gotten more dangerous because of the speed of the markets. Looking at the portfolio only at the end of month may have worked this time (got you out in Feb at 2984 back in in May at 3044), but if that cross over of the 200day would have been two days later, say March 2, the investor would have sold at 2584 and ended up buying back at 3044 (17.8% higher). And it could have been worse. The index crossed its 200day on May 27th. If it had been 3 days later the investor wouldn't have bought in May because it was still below the 200day and would have had to wait until June 30 at 3100. There are also a few instances over the last 10 years where the index went below the 200day only to bounce back. As long as it doesn't cross on a month end you are ok. As they say, actual returns may vary from backtest.
And why in the author bringing up a crash warning Buffett made over 20 years ago?
Here is an interesting chart. The ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500. Cue "but they make money now!" argument.

 

[Sytes]

A day or days(?) to be on the Put / Short side of...

Big boys club playing the market? Or... there some economic trigger? Debt exceeding, tech pauses? Jobless --- improving?

 

[jabber]

A day or days(?) to be on the Put / Short side of...

Big boys club playing the market? Or... there skme economic trigger? Debt exceeding, tech pauses? Jobless --- improving?

View attachment 152807

I had FB shorted that I picked up yesterday afternoon and sold this morning for a quick 42% gain. Turned that around and bought a couple of calls on it this morning. I think you are probably right on the big boys club

 

[Tiredofthebickering]

I'm having a tough day to be sure lol. Down 11%+ on my accounts. But I'm not super worried as it's mostly in pretty aggressive stuff. I've seen it recover nearly as hard too. But a tough day nonetheless.

 

[noharleyyet]

Looks like it's capital gains correction day for the longriders

 

[Addicting]

I jumped back in yesterday to make a quick buck and sell. I’m losing money faster than a company selling leaded bottled water.

 

[Irrelevant]

creed caught me with my pants down today. AMD erased the last month of solid moves for me.

 

[Sytes]

Been sitting on MSFT the past couple weeks... it's wiped a good % in one day.