Will mostly be in VTI so the Feb high was $172.56 on Feb 19. I sold on Feb 26 at $161. VTI fell then hit low of $109.49 on March 23. Highest price since Feb 19 has been 162.81 on June 10. I am not the smartest guy but have CPA and MBA and am valuing the stock as I would a house. This ignores upward price pressure by "no where else to invest but stocks" and "don't bet against the Fed" so you can be smarter. I think VTI was not worth $172 back in February but owned it so was not complaining. I think VTI is worth more than $110. I doubt the market falls to $100 if there is another pull back this year but could see $130 then back to $160 a year after that. Again, you are smarter than me.
I bought and resold VTI 6 times in the up/down swings and at times was 100% VTI then. I was 80% VTI and 20% BND in February and had been for 4 years other than a single re-balance each January to restore the 80/20 balance. Yes, I am a buy and hold investor but was confident prices would roller coaster for a while once they were moving 5% in a day or two down then up then down then up. I have traded more times this year than in total the past 5 years.
I do not do options. I am not smart enough to do so or maybe am smart enough not to. I figure with equity trades the worst outcome is I overpaid a bit for stock or was not invested so missed an upswing in the stock. I can sleep fine with those outcomes. I sleep great with buy and hold so will head back to that philosophy once the market settles down.
Anyway, if VTI hits 150 I will go 25% VTI.
If hits $140 will go another 25%.
If hits $130 will go all in. If there is a flash crash then will go all in if dips below $130. I have zero need for these funds the next 7 years then will be drawing down 3%. I will sell though at any point if seems is still volatile and I can lock in a $5 or greater price increase after holding a day or more.
At some point if am 100% VTI and the market is calmed down then will shift so pick up 20% BND at the point I feel stocks are relatively high and bonds are low in comparison. Then, likely never trade except the annual rebalancing.
I will likely stop divendend reinvesting in 7 years and use that to fund retirement along with SSI and some other cash flows. As my attorney says, "LopeHunter, you can either start flying First Class or your offspring will once you are gone." I flew First Class to Europe last Thanksgiving. Not impressed though my spouse liked the reclining chair that was flat like a bed so looks like European trips are more expensive for us now. I fly Southwest for 90% of my U.S. travel. Those are my people just like when I am in Walmart.
I have friends that swing for the fences. Entrepreneurs launching start ups. Heck, some could buy and sell me 100 times over. Most can not though have had moments where they were lashed to a rocket when flipping homes or trading options or bitcoins, etc. Life was very good for them. Many have gone BK. At some point when you go all in, Lady Luck might decide to laugh at you. But, not everyone so Survivor's Bias will generate some 20-somethings that make $Millions this year at RobinHood and they will write a book and sell their "system" as they launch a brand. I work with two guys active on RobinHood and they are way out of their league. Will likely end the same way as when they were about to turn to being Professional Poker players.
