T Bone
Well-known member
Yes, 25%.
The housing market feels off to me right now. Spec fueled, and over inflated.
Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
- Thread starter NEWHunter
- Start date
Yes, 25%.
The housing market feels off to me right now. Spec fueled, and over inflated.
Yea I pretty much went all in with my list for long term holdings. Its been Little gut wrenching but so far so good.
NASDAQ is off the charts! Higher than it was prior to covid within 2 months gain vs the 2.5 years prior... These companies are inventory overlap... Yet it's better than what it was?
People are buying into companies, not necessarily their current status. It can be blamed / diverted to covid. Purchased on the cheap and somehow the run continues up...
People are buying into companies, not necessarily their current status. It can be blamed / diverted to covid. Purchased on the cheap and somehow the run continues up...
SAJ-99
Well-known member
Housing is the same as every other asset class - supply and demand determine price. The only way it differs is that most purchasers have to borrow to purchase, so interest rates have a role in determining demand. Lower rates help demand, all else being equal. The money from the Government may have assisted people with the downpayment as well, as long as they kept their jobs. We have seen supply dry up due to "shelter-at-home" orders. Hard to buy or sell your home when most people are stuck in them. Also, the temporary freeze in bankruptcy proceedings further cut supply. Maybe the deals come after everything settles? Some of you more in-touch with that market might have a better guess. I don't see it as a spec market, at least not yet.
thusby
Well-known member
Well my investment in shale has so far lagged the market in general. I'm hoping it just gives me time to buy more at a discount. I'm 50/50 on whether that money just slowly disappears or if it just skyrockets.
MU (Micron): Feel as though I'm taking a peek over shoulders at a Las Vegas hot craps table... haha! I'm sitting on hobby Puts. I played a few calls on the rise and watched the purse gain some back though I'll hop out pre earnings. Well maybe a very very simple strangle, if it's not priced out already.
finance.yahoo.com
This market acts as though Covid-19 was a superhero of American (and world) economics! Haha!... Ya, ya. I know market and economics don't necessarily tie shoe laces the same.
Micron Option Trader Bets $1.5M On 5% Upside Ahead Of Earnings
Shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) traded higher Friday after a pair of Wall Street analysts raised their price targets for the memory leader ahead of the company's earnings report later this month.Micron shares are up just 3.8% overall in the three weeks since the company...
This market acts as though Covid-19 was a superhero of American (and world) economics! Haha!... Ya, ya. I know market and economics don't necessarily tie shoe laces the same.
There's a wave of selling estimated to be in the billions that's about to hit the stock market
With the stock market's sharp gains this quarter, traders are expecting more volatility as investors take gains from equities and move them into bonds.
Interesting read. Bonds and profit taking... Just one market journo's take on market activity.
***
On a separate note for the humor side of the market, I've entered another, "I changed the market" blog. All humor intended.
A couple friends and I whine about our bad coin flips w/in our market blog.Another single handed action that changed the course of MU... I sold my October Puts - and bought a few July calls. Figured my Put run was hampered w/ analysts upgrades, and going into earnings week MU may see an uptick. W/$65 projections and company raised outlook maybe... Just maybe I should flip sides and ride it through the day of aftermarket earnings release and sell around 1400 est before my crystal ball claims some sell off.
Well, BMC downgraded to "Perform" from "Outperform" after they saw my massive $2.5k move to calls. So while my former puts were sold the other morning and swapped to calls... Now those puts are gold and my calls are... Sewage... Haha! Glad I'm not playing a single company though, well I'll be!
Yep, sorry if my move put a crinkle in you folio.
Addicting
Well-known member
There's a wave of selling estimated to be in the billions that's about to hit the stock market
With the stock market's sharp gains this quarter, traders are expecting more volatility as investors take gains from equities and move them into bonds.www.cnbc.com
Interesting read. Bonds and profit taking... Just one market journo's take on market activity.
***
On a separate note for the humor side of the market, I've entered another, "I changed the market" blog. All humor intended.
Another single handed action that changed the course of MU... I sold my October Puts - and bought a few July calls. Figured my Put run was hampered w/ analysts upgrades, and going into earnings week MU may see an uptick. W/$65 projections and company raised outlook maybe... Just maybe I should flip sides and ride it through the day of aftermarket earnings release and sell around 1400 est before my crystal ball claims some sell off.
Well, BMC downgraded to "Perform" from "Outperform" after they saw my massive $2.5k move to calls. So while my former puts were sold the other morning and swapped to calls... Now those puts are gold and my calls are... Sewage... Haha! Glad I'm not playing a single company though, well I'll be!
Yep, sorry if my move put a crinkle in you folio.
It wouldn’t hurt my feelings at all for a massive sell off. I have my TSP parked In the G fund waiting for the S&P to take a drop So I can move it back over.
Irrelevant
Well-known member
a massive sell off right now would be xmas in June for me.
thusby
Well-known member
This could be the start of it.
Yeah, I recall your earlier post you made your gains and are sitting equal to where you were at prior.
We're already pretty much above where we were before Covid-19. Never hurts to let it sit for a couple and then pop it back in once things are really getting nailed down. Then again, I'm a simple hobby player for the market though doing pretty darn good with my TSP working from the safe angle.
I hopped into the G fund right before the drop... So I still held the money gained to that point. I hopped into the G and the F closer to the bottom. F predominantly, I believe it's 70%.
It still has its risks and as you, I don't believe our roller coaster is over just yet.
Addicting
Well-known member
I see it’s already 2.5% down. Hopefully that continues.
Addicting
Well-known member
Managing my TSP has more attention to it now. I can’t make contributions anymore now that I’m done with my service. So hopefully I can make it grow a little more till I can draw from it.
MU (Micron): Feel as though I'm taking a peek over shoulders at a Las Vegas hot craps table... haha! I'm sitting on hobby Puts. I played a few calls on the rise and watched the purse gain some back though I'll hop out pre earnings. Well maybe a very very simple strangle, if it's not priced out already.
Micron Option Trader Bets $1.5M On 5% Upside Ahead Of Earnings
Shares of Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) traded higher Friday after a pair of Wall Street analysts raised their price targets for the memory leader ahead of the company's earnings report later this month.Micron shares are up just 3.8% overall in the three weeks since the company...
This market acts as though Covid-19 was a superhero of American (and world) economics! Haha!... Ya, ya. I know market and economics don't necessarily tie shoe laces the same.
Bet this institution, firm, or person or... whomever is feeling it today! That 1.5 million may have dumped some 20-30% in this one day alone... I sure know I'm feeling it... more so as I just sold my Puts that would have given a nice 30% gain today instead... I need another box of tissues. Haha! Today stung and may call for a larger movement to pull gains before it drops, again... UNLESS it turns out, this is another big boys and girls club sell off for some profit taking and pressing for a brief drop to buy back.
If you're good with sharing (Sharing is caring...,
) What stocks are you shorting or have puts on?
Irrelevant
Well-known member
None, I'm sitting on the most liquid capitol I've ever had waiting to pounce.Bet this institution, firm, or person or... whomever is feeling it today! That 1.5 million may have dumped some 20-30% in this one day alone... I sure know I'm feeling it... more so as I just sold my Puts that would have given a nice 30% gain today instead... I need another box of tissues. Haha! Today stung and may call for a larger movement to pull gains before it drops, again... UNLESS it turns out, this is another big boys and girls club sell off for some profit taking and pressing for a brief drop to buy back.
If you're good with sharing (Sharing is caring...,
LopeHunter
Well-known member
Me as well. Am 20% invested and rest is cash. Am sometimes 100% cash as have been buying/selling a couple of up/down stocks that are profitable so if I am left holding them I am not concerned as that means a sale is going on. Will go 20% bonds via BND but may be a year or more after go 100% stocks. I had hoped could buy BND then sell as rose and buy into VTI stock as fall then rinse and repeat when stocks were hyper volatile but I did not foresee BND and VTI moving in tandem rather than in opposite directions for the most part.
Investment total of all accounts is where would be if sold in February at the top of VTI value. I got here by heading to 100% cash in late February then trading mostly VTI. No option plays for me. A big fall this summer or fall would get me back to 100% invested. No hurry as feel as though am playing with House money though a bit of Survivor bias as I did take on risk with each trade so far.
Irrelevant
Well-known member
I'm not that deep. I left 60% to do what it will in aggressive growth funds and stocks. But 40% is either in bonds or just cash. I plan to keep it that way even without a crash through the new year. Not sure what the election will bring. But if I see $350 Telsa or 1,600 Amazon at any point I'm all in with that 40%.
LopeHunter
Well-known member
For those of you in cash, at what level would you put that money to work in equities?
@neffa3 you might be waiting a long time for a 60% and 40% drop in those names. However, i have been wrong before.
Will mostly be in VTI so the Feb high was $172.56 on Feb 19. I sold on Feb 26 at $161. VTI fell then hit low of $109.49 on March 23. Highest price since Feb 19 has been 162.81 on June 10. I am not the smartest guy but have CPA and MBA and am valuing the stock as I would a house. This ignores upward price pressure by "no where else to invest but stocks" and "don't bet against the Fed" so you can be smarter. I think VTI was not worth $172 back in February but owned it so was not complaining. I think VTI is worth more than $110. I doubt the market falls to $100 if there is another pull back this year but could see $130 then back to $160 a year after that. Again, you are smarter than me.
I bought and resold VTI 6 times in the up/down swings and at times was 100% VTI then. I was 80% VTI and 20% BND in February and had been for 4 years other than a single re-balance each January to restore the 80/20 balance. Yes, I am a buy and hold investor but was confident prices would roller coaster for a while once they were moving 5% in a day or two down then up then down then up. I have traded more times this year than in total the past 5 years.
I do not do options. I am not smart enough to do so or maybe am smart enough not to. I figure with equity trades the worst outcome is I overpaid a bit for stock or was not invested so missed an upswing in the stock. I can sleep fine with those outcomes. I sleep great with buy and hold so will head back to that philosophy once the market settles down.
Anyway, if VTI hits 150 I will go 25% VTI.
If hits $140 will go another 25%.
If hits $130 will go all in. If there is a flash crash then will go all in if dips below $130. I have zero need for these funds the next 7 years then will be drawing down 3%. I will sell though at any point if seems is still volatile and I can lock in a $5 or greater price increase after holding a day or more.
At some point if am 100% VTI and the market is calmed down then will shift so pick up 20% BND at the point I feel stocks are relatively high and bonds are low in comparison. Then, likely never trade except the annual rebalancing.
I will likely stop divendend reinvesting in 7 years and use that to fund retirement along with SSI and some other cash flows. As my attorney says, "LopeHunter, you can either start flying First Class or your offspring will once you are gone." I flew First Class to Europe last Thanksgiving. Not impressed though my spouse liked the reclining chair that was flat like a bed so looks like European trips are more expensive for us now. I fly Southwest for 90% of my U.S. travel. Those are my people just like when I am in Walmart.
I have friends that swing for the fences. Entrepreneurs launching start ups. Heck, some could buy and sell me 100 times over. Most can not though have had moments where they were lashed to a rocket when flipping homes or trading options or bitcoins, etc. Life was very good for them. Many have gone BK. At some point when you go all in, Lady Luck might decide to laugh at you. But, not everyone so Survivor's Bias will generate some 20-somethings that make $Millions this year at RobinHood and they will write a book and sell their "system" as they launch a brand. I work with two guys active on RobinHood and they are way out of their league. Will likely end the same way as when they were about to turn to being Professional Poker players.
noharleyyet
Well-known member
