Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Gus Chiggins]

So is there a scenario where unemployment stays super low near current levels and inflation comes down? That’s probably what the best case scenario would be but is that even possible?

Good question I think that's what Fed is trying to figure out. Not in an enviable position at this point. Other than employment, however, home prices many places are coming back down, as are car prices, and thought I read that orders or purchasers of other durable goods is declining (because over the past 3 years everyone bought all new stuff at Home Depot). Household CC debt is rising, and interesting to see more "newer" used vehicles on car lots. Not sure if that means people are turning the keys back over to the bank on their 2021 4Runner TRD Pro or not.

 

[SAJ-99]

So is there a scenario where unemployment stays super low near current levels and inflation comes down? That’s probably what the best case scenario would be but is that even possible?

My personal guess, No. If people are employed, they have the money to spend even when prices are increasing. If there are more jobs than people to do them, they can command higher wages. It's the wage-price spiral. Something will break eventually. It has to.

 

[rogerthat]

My personal guess, No. If people are employed, they have the money to spend even when prices are increasing. If there are more jobs than people to do them, they can command higher wages. It's the wage-price spiral. Something will break eventually. It has to.

My thoughts as well

 

[BigHornRam]

Lovely!

Dow closes more than 300 points lower, posts worst week since June as Silicon Valley Bank collapse sparks selloff: Live updates

Stocks tumbled Friday as tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank shut down following losses in its bond portfolio and sent shockwaves through financial markets.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Flatrock]

Lovely!

Dow closes more than 300 points lower, posts worst week since June as Silicon Valley Bank collapse sparks selloff: Live updates

Stocks tumbled Friday as tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank shut down following losses in its bond portfolio and sent shockwaves through financial markets.

www.cnbc.com

That's good! Things are on a nice sale this week. Got to buy some SPY this morning about 4% cheaper than at the beginning of the week. Hopefully it'll be cheaper next week and next month.

 

[SAJ-99]

Add this one to the "bad idea" pile.

Wait!...wait! Back in the to-be-determined pile.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Whelp, it is let’s shitthebed March so far! Buy the dip, they say

 

[TOGIE]

 

[schmalts]

A lot of people are tired of the uncertainty and said screw it and moved to cash. I put my Wife's 401k 100% cash 3 weeks ago. Making 4% on it. So far it's played out. Reality is rising rates will take older people to a safe haven and for me I say bring it on. My 401K is all over the damn place... I also dropped my 401 contribution by half, as I can make 4% on my money and invest other than stocks with it. I am too old to look for the LOOOOOOONG road. Another key thing, those older folks have the highest amount in those 401K's so I would not be surprised if rates go high enough a mass exodus will happen causing a big market drop

 

[Flatrock]

A lot of people are tired of the uncertainty and said screw it and moved to cash. I put my Wife's 401k 100% cash 3 weeks ago. Making 4% on it. So far it's played out. Reality is rising rates will take older people to a safe haven and for me I say bring it on. My 401K is all over the damn place... I also dropped my 401 contribution by half, as I can make 4% on my money and invest other than stocks with it. I am too old to look for the LOOOOOOONG road. Another key thing, those older folks have the highest amount in those 401K's so I would not be surprised if rates go high enough a mass exodus will happen causing a big market drop

So do you think you'll keep that money in cash for good or would you put it back in stocks at some point? I know that's a hard question to answer in such an uncertain time but still curious. When people throw in the towel though on the near term, I'm always curious as to what their strategy is for the next 1-3 years.

 

[schmalts]

So do you think you'll keep that money in cash for good or would you put it back in stocks at some point? I know that's a hard question to answer in such an uncertain time but still curious. When people throw in the towel though on the near term, I'm always curious as to what their strategy is for the next 1-3 years.

It's fluid. But right now I'm looking for safer investments and stocks are too risky to be heavy in for older people. For far too long there were limited options for income in a 401k but that has changed. If I could get a super safe 6% ill take 100% percent out of my investments. Don't be fooled by anyone telling you otherwise because I truly believe the reason the markets will keep going down is too much uncertainty and now other options for older investors. And again.... younger investors don't have shit in the game compared to the millionaire clubbers near or at retirement. When those investors move out of stocks It's going to drop and I know it's been happening and I ain't the only one. I welcome rate hikes with open arms because it's good for retirees. My savings account went to 4% interest

 

[homers]

I’ll put my cash back in when the S&P is < 3200

 

[stealthy_bowman]

I actually like all the negative sentiment. When retail investors start leaving the market in mass, history has shown time and again that it’s a great time to invest.
If your time horizon is a year or two then sure, bailing might very well make sense. But if you’re looking at 5+ years out, that’s a whole different story.

 

[huntandfly]

It’s just one cherry-picked example, but if you invested in a nasdaq composite etf in Jan 2000 (I know they didn’t exist yet, just for sake of argument), you wouldn’t have seen a profit until October 2016. 5 years is a significant simplification

 

[schmalts]

I actually like all the negative sentiment. When retail investors start leaving the market in mass, history has shown time and again that it’s a great time to invest.
If your time horizon is a year or two then sure, bailing might very well make sense. But if you’re looking at 5+ years out, that’s a whole different story.

Exactly. But I would say more like 10+ years out. When covid hit and markets tanked i was more worried about dying from stress than covid because I got caught with my pants down. Not letting that happen again now that there's alternatives in a 401k

 

[Brittany Chukarman]

A lot of people are tired of the uncertainty and said screw it and moved to cash. I put my Wife's 401k 100% cash 3 weeks ago. Making 4% on it. So far it's played out. Reality is rising rates will take older people to a safe haven and for me I say bring it on. My 401K is all over the damn place... I also dropped my 401 contribution by half, as I can make 4% on my money and invest other than stocks with it. I am too old to look for the LOOOOOOONG road. Another key thing, those older folks have the highest amount in those 401K's so I would not be surprised if rates go high enough a mass exodus will happen causing a big market drop

Same here. I bailed in Spring of 2022 with the DOW at 32600. My gut told me to bail Fall of 2021 and I didn't listen, big mistake. At 69 I can't play games with my retirement. I'm digging the peace of mind and knowing how much I can spend.

 

[BigHornRam]

My $4.00 DFLI order filled this afternoon. You DFLI investors are really #@)(*%* now!

 

[SAJ-99]

My $4.00 DFLI order filled this afternoon. You DFLI investors are really #@)(*%* now!

Gotta hold through earnings, even though there won’t be any. CEO better be a good salesperson. I need and sunshine coming from that guy.

 

[stealthy_bowman]

Exactly. But I would say more like 10+ years out. When covid hit and markets tanked i was more worried about dying from stress than covid because I got caught with my pants down. Not letting that happen again now that there's alternatives in a 401k

Could be 10 years, who knows. For me, I’m sitting tight, but I do have about 10 years where I intend to be well invested.
I do think that this SVB Fed induced collapse is a game changer for rates though. For sure the Fed has to rethink their misguided strategy as there is real collateral damage that is starting to occur across the economy and the SVB collapse could be just the start of that. This really has serious implications for the broader economy and this will become more apparent next week. Nevertheless, for long term investors, this will create a nice opportunity for those that can stomach it.

 

[Sytes]

My $4.00 DFLI order filled this afternoon. You DFLI investors are really #@)(*%* now!

Dr. Denis Phares (DFLI CEO) appears to be no older than 28. Between the "uhhh" and "ahhh". I like their game plan - would like a solid CEO though time will tell. Haha!

Hopefully, big fish take their bait at a quality share value.. or DFLI becomes one of those, one big hit wonders of the market.

The most recent interview (today) involves their public SPAC merger announcement.

Dragonfly Energy CEO On SPAC Merger | The Watch List| TD Ameritrade Network

<p>Dragonfly Energy is to go public via SPAC merger. Dr. Denis Phares, CEO of Dragonfly Energy, joins Nicole Petallides to discuss the SPAC merger. The deal values the combined company at $500M. Dragonfly Energy is a producer of deep cycle lithium-ion storage batteries. Phares goes over how the...

tdameritradenetwork.com

SPAC is a means to sidestep the IPO process. A bit of shell company gamesmanship.