Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[BigHornRam]

Gotta hold through earnings, even though there won’t be any. CEO better be a good salesperson. I need and sunshine coming from that guy.

I am anticipating him saying something like "storage for off grid bunkers is expected to grow by 1000% in 2023...... van life hippie chicks are buying the shit out of our batteries!"

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

It’s just one cherry-picked example, but if you invested in a nasdaq composite etf in Jan 2000 (I know they didn’t exist yet, just for sake of argument), you wouldn’t have seen a profit until October 2016. 5 years is a significant simplification

Doesn’t that imply though that the price of the ETF shares stayed flat for 5 years, and you can only put ~20k a year into a 401k so that means you get 100k in at a good share price.

Then the market averages what percent a year? 6-9% depending on how you far back you extend the average. Meaning that if it stays flat for 5 then in a 10 year period the next 5 years will be in the 12-18% range?

I totally get @schmalts position as someone in or near retirement, but if you’re 10-15 years seems like an amazing time to be buying.

 

[Treeshark]

I totally get @schmalts position as someone in or near retirement, but if you’re 10-15 years seems like an amazing time to be buying.

Agreed, that’s what I keep telling myself as it continues to dump days after making large purchases (to me anyway). Betting that the old “time in the market beats timing the market” mantra rings true as it usually has over a longer timeline.

I do agree that for those in schmalts position he hit the nail on the head. That’s exactly how I’d be playing it too.

 

[howl]

The market makes little sense to me at times like these. My biggest gambles are the only things doing real well right now. I mean straight gambling. One is RDFN.

I bought a little more FNILX yesterday and am about to do so again today. Then I'll spend several months worth of IRA contributions on TIPS here in a week or so. We'll see what is up in September.

My only real issue right now is understanding how continuing buying of life cycle funds in my 457 works in face of inflation. Bond holdings seem to be dragging them down irrecoverably.

 

[schmalts]

Agreed, that’s what I keep telling myself as it continues to dump days after making large purchases (to me anyway). Betting that the old “time in the market beats timing the market” mantra rings true as it usually has over a longer timeline.

I do agree that for those in schmalts position he hit the nail on the head. That’s exactly how I’d be playing it too.

F'ing Nio and TNCC.... still holding those turds because I am already down 35% and 70%. I still feel Nio will recover but not sure that TNCC is not a scam and just a CEO skimming off the top.

 

[huntandfly]

I totally get @schmalts position as someone in or near retirement, but if you’re 10-15 years seems like an amazing time to be buying.

That’s exactly what I’m saying. But I’m also saying that his originally quote of “5+ years” could very easily not be the case.

 

[SAJ-99]

F'ing Nio and TNCC.... still holding those turds because I am already down 35% and 70%. I still feel Nio will recover but not sure that TNCC is not a scam and just a CEO skimming off the top.

At least you didn't own SIVB...or I hope you didn't.

 

[AvidIndoorsman]

That’s exactly what I’m saying. But I’m also saying that his originally quote of “5+ years” could very easily not be the case.

Gotcha yeah totally agree.

 

[Treeshark]

I still feel Nio will recover

I’m here to lift you up… I’m down 85.01% on NIO. It’s so bad it makes ARKK look like a good decision.

I’m riding these b$&@!s off the cliff until they crash into a ball of flames at this point.

 

[antelopedundee]

F'ing Nio and TNCC.... still holding those turds because I am already down 35% and 70%. I still feel Nio will recover but not sure that TNCC is not a scam and just a CEO skimming off the top.

I'm down some too on NIO, but fortunately I have just a token number of shares.

 

[SAJ-99]

A lot of these names, including DFLI, should just be fun money. They are lottery tickets. Bets that you can watch disappear over years instead of every Wednesday or Saturday. The implosion of SVB is the "Risk Man" coming to collect. A lot of small tech companies held their operating cash (millions of $) at SVB and it is now frozen and uninsured. Vultures are circling offering 70cents on the $. Given some of these companies burn money like a grass fire, and they don't really make money to begin with, they might be out of business by the end of the month. Many won't even have to be in SVB, they just have to be "tech-adjacent". When you buy these names, make sure you can lose it all and not have it impact your end goal.

Open discussion on whether you think the government should step in and potentially save these small companies for choosing the wrong bank. Personally I think we have to let it burn, but I get both sides. Might solve the overvaluation of Montana vacation real estate, too.

 

[TOGIE]

Open discussion on whether you think the government should step in and potentially save these small companies for choosing the wrong bank. Personally I think we have to let it burn, but I get both sides. Might solve the overvaluation of Montana vacation real estate, too.

 

[jryoung]

Open discussion on whether you think the government should step in and potentially save these small companies for choosing the wrong bank. Personally I think we have to let it burn, but I get both sides. Might solve the overvaluation of Montana vacation real estate, too.

I'm curious if another bank like Goldman doesn't step in. Not sure what the logistics would be, of if it's even possible to move that fast.

My good friend was going to keep another friends car in his garage while we went to lead his BU in EMEA for SVB. He asked if he was okay, and just replied "too soon to tell".

 

[Flatrock]

It's fluid. But right now I'm looking for safer investments and stocks are too risky to be heavy in for older people. For far too long there were limited options for income in a 401k but that has changed. If I could get a super safe 6% ill take 100% percent out of my investments. Don't be fooled by anyone telling you otherwise because I truly believe the reason the markets will keep going down is too much uncertainty and now other options for older investors. And again.... younger investors don't have shit in the game compared to the millionaire clubbers near or at retirement. When those investors move out of stocks It's going to drop and I know it's been happening and I ain't the only one. I welcome rate hikes with open arms because it's good for retirees. My savings account went to 4% interest

Sounds like a good plan. I agree things have changed a lot in the last year and there are other options besides stocks in a 4-5% interest rate world. While that's not the best for stocks, it's probably a good thing overall.

And I don't know if boomers moving out of stocks would be enough to have a meaningful impact but I hope so. Anyone with a horizon of more than 3 years who is buying every 2 weeks in a 401k should be hoping for lower prices.

 

[rogerthat]

I’m here to lift you up… I’m down 85.01% on NIO. It’s so bad it makes ARKK look like a good decision.

I’m riding these b$&@!s off the cliff until they crash into a ball of flames at this point.

No wonder you haven’t bought any uw landowner tags yet

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm curious if another bank like Goldman doesn't step in. Not sure what the logistics would be, of if it's even possible to move that fast.

My good friend was going to keep another friends car in his garage while we went to lead his BU in EMEA for SVB. He asked if he was okay, and just replied "too soon to tell".

When the vultures offer 70cents on the $, you have a pretty good idea what the assets and liabilities net out to be. Maybe a major bank steps in with the hope of winning IPO business for these cos when that market picks back up. Maybe. We should know by tomorrow. Doesn’t change the fact that these companies are being run by 20-something, potential geniuses that disregarded what an FDIC limit meant. And we have to note that they are funded by public and private pensions across the country that eventually bear the loss.

 

[homers]

At least you didn't own SIVB...or I hope you didn't.

2nd largest bank failure in US history. Might ripple.

 

[LopeHunter]

A lot of these names, including DFLI, should just be fun money. They are lottery tickets. Bets that you can watch disappear over years instead of every Wednesday or Saturday. The implosion of SVB is the "Risk Man" coming to collect. A lot of small tech companies held their operating cash (millions of $) at SVB and it is now frozen and uninsured. Vultures are circling offering 70cents on the $. Given some of these companies burn money like a grass fire, and they don't really make money to begin with, they might be out of business by the end of the month. Many won't even have to be in SVB, they just have to be "tech-adjacent". When you buy these names, make sure you can lose it all and not have it impact your end goal.

Open discussion on whether you think the government should step in and potentially save these small companies for choosing the wrong bank. Personally I think we have to let it burn, but I get both sides. Might solve the overvaluation of Montana vacation real estate, too.

If the Feds can't get warrants in the companies with uninsured deposits then let it burn and innovation will get throttled for a while as a result but I am not rescuing millionaires at 100 cents on the dollar. I want equity in exchange for creating fast liquidity at close to 100 cents on the uninsured dollar deposited.

 

[SAJ-99]

If the Feds can't get warrants in the companies with uninsured deposits then let it burn and innovation will get throttled for a while as a result but I am not rescuing millionaires at 100 cents on the dollar. I want equity in exchange for creating fast liquidity at close to 100 cents on the uninsured dollar deposited.

Sure. Just like last time. But what about “small business as the backbone of ‘Merica.” Just wait. You will hear it. Just curious as to what “side” says it first.

 

[Benfromalbuquerque]

Sure. Just like last time. But what about “small business as the backbone of ‘Merica.” Just wait. You will hear it. Just curious as to what “side” says it first.

Yeah, I’ve seen that movie! It’s like the one where legislators fake care about retirement funds of the constituency? There’s some bicameral hot potato and concessions. In the last script political extremists had little screen time for crazy. This sequel will bring back the former crew though I do believe more in supporting roles while some grade B talent gets their first starring roles!