So I just did a little math and a little research...I think this is a great question.
It isn't perfect science or math, but it is close between Idaho and Nevada...with the edge over time going to Nevada in my opinion.
So, if my math is correct, it takes 13 independent 5% drawings to have a 50% chance at drawing once over that time period. This is the Idaho model because residents can find some hunts in the 5% draw odds range.
Right now, if you're a resident in NV and have 13 points, there are several units with slightly over 50% odds.
Again, not perfect math because they have different application models, but somewhat similar. Obviously working up the points in NV your odds get better depending on where you are and where you started.
Definitely the edge is with NV if you started 13 years ago. If you start today, it is tougher to know.
Interesting thought.
Alaska, however, wins when it comes to getting a resident ram tag.