https://www.wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2019/HB0042

- Thread starter jtm307
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https://www.wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2019/HB0042

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There is a good portion of the non online forum public that will be for this.

https://www.wyoleg.gov/Legislation/2019/HB0042

A lot of people view preference points as a way to draw Deer 102 and Elk 100.

It can also be sold as a way to generate income to fund wildlife as well.

I would not be shocked if this passes.

I would bet on it failing.

IMO, a point system makes sense for resident buck antelope; but not deer or elk. All deer or elk points would do is create a log jam, due to not a lot of units and the general tag that is available.

I will probably get some flack on that pronghorn view, but it is what it is My Opinion, man.

Of course, I apply in a different unit and they also award 10 tags but only 50 people apply so 10/50 is 20% odds and I should draw every 5 years which I have. Not lucky. Just average. As you were to no draw yet after 10 years.

Even if I was applying for the same unit as you there will be a few "lucky" and "unlucky" applicants yet most will have average luck but if do not do the math then will decide the system is broken. I want MY tag now.

Let's put a point system into my example and look at you the next 40 years. Oh, and you have a kid that is 1 year to young to buy a point the first year of the point system.

Under the random system you should draw a tag at 20 years and at 40 years plus your son should draw a tag 1 year after your first tag and 1 year after your second tag. And you have a kid too young to apply in the first year of the system. And let's award 100% of the tags to those with most points. Year 1 you are at zero points.

Year 1. 200 applicants. All at 0 points. All have 5% odds to draw. 10 draw. 190 go to the next year at 1 point while the rest will have 0 points.

Year 2. 200 applicants. 190 at 1 point. 10 at zero points including your kid who can now apply. 10 at 1 point draw. They had better than 5% odds since 10/190 is a bit better. Your kid has 0% chance to draw as does anyone who drew in Year 1. If the old system had continued the kid had 5% odds this year but the point system started.

Year 16. 200 applicants. 50 at 15 points of which 10 draw so 20% odds. Woo hoo. Your kid is still at 0% though. After 15 draws. Rather than having 5% odds each of those 15 draws. You may have drawn by now but if did then are at the tail end of the line and point creep will mean you likely will need more than 20 years to draw the tag the 2nd time. And the penalty to you kid was to have to wait 20 years.

If instead change the point system to a species such as sheep with under 5% odds then your kid is waiting 30 or 50 or 150 years to get to Max Pool so obviously most applicants die before reach Max Pool unless are in Year 1, 2 or 3. Your kid that can get in the game Year 4 or 14 is screwed. But, hey, they are just unlucky.

200 applicants. 180 at 2 points, 10 at 1, 10 at 0. 10 at 2 points draw.

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Or you can buy a chitload of HopZone and live a happy life.

In the example given, there are annually 200 applicants with a quota of 10. This is already problematic because in WY, good units experience long term annual increases in applicants, even for resident draws. Let's ignore that for a moment. The probability of drawing this fictional unit in any given year is 5%. The average Joe with very little exposure to probability will think he has to apply for 20 years to draw a tag. This is false. Here are some probabilities that demonstrate my point. 1) If I apply for twenty years, the probability of me drawing on year 20 is 1.9%. 2) The probability of drawing at least once in those twenty years 64.2%, not 100% as Lopehunter implies. 3)The probability of my friend, having applied for 10 years, drawing at least once in those 10 years is 40.1%. My odds of drawing at least once in those 10 years are exactly the same as his. This is the way it SHOULD be IMO. Unbiased! 4)The probability of me drawing at least once in the 10 years prior to my friend entering the draw is 40.1%.

If these numbers seem counter-intuitive, take a free online course in basic probability. It'll make you a more informed big game applicant.

Now to MY example. The probability of drawing my "dream" unit for moose was .1% in 2018, I don't even bother considering preference points because the number of points required to draw goes up by at least one every year. I'll never have enough points to draw. The probability of me drawing at least once in the next 40 years is 5.5%. This assumes odds remain the same. In reality, they will get worse. Without a preference point system, the probability of me drawing at least once in that time frame goes up to 20.2%.

You forgot to add a "must be present to enter" tag expo to the mix

I've been writing all my WY representatives about how this is a terrible idea

Statistics are harder. I mean 5 out of 4 people have issues with them.Math is very hard for a lot of people.

For Antelope, When the Odds are 15-25% in most units are here; it would make sense to incorporate a system where it allows people to hunt and get through the system.

For Deer & Elk, it makes zero sense; because Deer 102 and Elk 100 gets around 3,000 people a year for 100 permits.