Wyoming Elk

[Treeshark]

But what if every "app" was a party app with 4 guys. So realistically odds where only 12.5% correct?

I could be wrong, but I always assumed that only the party organizer was actually entered into the draw/odds (IE: all members of the party, due to shared party number, enter as one entity).

 

[WIbiggame]

I could be wrong, but I always assumed that only the party organizer was actually entered into the draw/odds (IE: all members of the party, due to shared party number, enter as one entity).

That is what my understanding is/was too. So than your odds could be way worse than what is posted?

 

[WIbiggame]

So I was redoing my math for the above scenario. And the 12.5% is not accurate.

First app pull: 10/20 chance 50%
2nd pull: 6/19 chance 31.5%
3rd pull: 2/18 chance 11.1%

 

[kwyeewyk]

Have a question and this seemed to be the best place.

When looking at the draw odds for random for example # of tags vs # drawn; How accurate is that percentage?

I ask bc of the group application process. For example tag X has 10 random tags given, the draw report shows 20 applicants in the random. Should be 50% odds right?

But what if every "app" was a party app with 4 guys. So realistically odds where only 12.5% correct? Or does WY break it down in the report by per actual person that could've gotten a tag?

Pretty sure the number of applicants is every hunter regardless of whether they are in a party. If there's 10 tags available they pull the first name/party (assigned by random number), if it's a party they issue that many, repeat until the available tags are all issued. If the last name drawn is a party and there's more people in the party than available tags remaining they issue tags to everyone in the party and exceed the quota by 1 or a few tags.

The odds would practically be 50%, but the actual odds would be difficult to calculate because that would depend on how many parties make up the 20 applicants complicated by the random number of tags issued for each name/party pulled out of the hat.

Example using Google AI:

 

[WapitiBob]

Every 1st choice app is shown in the demand reports but, for a party app, the demand report shows the party members at the party's points average. The party I looked at had 3 members, two with 1 point ea and one with 5. Those three 1st choice apps are shown in the <3 point pool in the report (2.3333 points).