Wyoming Elk

[WIbiggame]

I could be wrong, but I always assumed that only the party organizer was actually entered into the draw/odds (IE: all members of the party, due to shared party number, enter as one entity).

That is what my understanding is/was too. So than your odds could be way worse than what is posted?

 

[WIbiggame]

So I was redoing my math for the above scenario. And the 12.5% is not accurate.

First app pull: 10/20 chance 50%
2nd pull: 6/19 chance 31.5%
3rd pull: 2/18 chance 11.1%

 

[kwyeewyk]

Have a question and this seemed to be the best place.

When looking at the draw odds for random for example # of tags vs # drawn; How accurate is that percentage?

I ask bc of the group application process. For example tag X has 10 random tags given, the draw report shows 20 applicants in the random. Should be 50% odds right?

But what if every "app" was a party app with 4 guys. So realistically odds where only 12.5% correct? Or does WY break it down in the report by per actual person that could've gotten a tag?

Pretty sure the number of applicants is every hunter regardless of whether they are in a party. If there's 10 tags available they pull the first name/party (assigned by random number), if it's a party they issue that many, repeat until the available tags are all issued. If the last name drawn is a party and there's more people in the party than available tags remaining they issue tags to everyone in the party and exceed the quota by 1 or a few tags.

The odds would practically be 50%, but the actual odds would be difficult to calculate because that would depend on how many parties make up the 20 applicants complicated by the random number of tags issued for each name/party pulled out of the hat.

Example using Google AI:

 

[WapitiBob]

Every 1st choice app is shown in the demand reports but, for a party app, the demand report shows the party members at the party's points average. The party I looked at had 3 members, two with 1 point ea and one with 5. Those three 1st choice apps are shown in the <3 point pool in the report (2.3333 points).

 

[NativeIndian]

Not my first time applying, but if my party doesn’t draw the W general with an average of 6.75 I may actually quit

you should be fine with that

 

[NativeIndian]

Pretty sure the number of applicants is every hunter regardless of whether they are in a party. If there's 10 tags available they pull the first name/party (assigned by random number), if it's a party they issue that many, repeat until the available tags are all issued. If the last name drawn is a party and there's more people in the party than available tags remaining they issue tags to everyone in the party and exceed the quota by 1 or a few tags.

The odds would practically be 50%, but the actual odds would be difficult to calculate because that would depend on how many parties make up the 20 applicants complicated by the random number of tags issued for each name/party pulled out of the hat.

Example using Google AI:

View attachment 401261
View attachment 401262
View attachment 401263

DAMN, I didn't need my cheaters to read this!

 

[WIbiggame]

So there is no real way to know true odds because of the group application process? Only way to know is if every application only has 1 person attached to it?

Sorry its irrelevant I just was going down a rabbit hole in my head and figured I would ask here.

Good luck all in the draws!

 

[WapitiBob]

So there is no real way to know true odds because of the group application process? Only way to know is if every application only has 1 person attached to it?

Sorry its irrelevant I just was going down a rabbit hole in my head and figured I would ask here.

Good luck all in the draws!

Correct and you don't know the number and size of party apps till after the draw.

 

[Bluffgruff]

Every person in the draw is shown. No hidden apps, random draw reports include every party member. For the points drawing reports in Wyoming, all members of a party are shown at the average points level.

This is different than Colorado where party members are shown at their individual point level, and there is no averaging of points. Still no hidden applications.

 

[dfbeatty65]

I think my odds are better of pooping gold than drawing tag. ;o)

 

[The_Coloradoboy]

I didn’t get that carried away. I have plenty of points in Wyoming. Plenty of WTF points in Colorado. 12 points for bear in Colorado is dumb.

Feel ya there. I always got bear points over the years even though I was always killing bears on otc and left over tags… now I have 21 points

 

[BootsontheGround18]

I put in the a general tag, as point creep got me last year. Hoping I am successful this year. Good luck to all!

 

[Addicting]

I think my odds are better of pooping gold than drawing tag. ;o)

You could greatly increase those odds if you just eat some gold or drink some Goldschläger.

 

[LCH]

I think I have a pretty good strategy for a 2nd or 3rd choice tag.. definitely not a lock, but I think I have a chance.

 

[cgasner1]

80% chance things go my way on this

 

[Lostinthewoods]

I could have drawn solo, but decided to average in a buddy. We are right on the line of drawing 95 so let’s see how the results play out.

I had all the points and he had zero.

I’m a good friend sometimes!

 

[Pagosa]

I applied with another guy at 5 points each for a western region elk, prefer to not draw this year and I dont think 5 points will be enough for the preference point pool, but will have a 1:10 odds in the random. Is the drawing date still May 21st? Good luck to those that applied.

 

[El Jason]

Is the drawing date still May 21st?

Yes

 

[RunNGunSC]

Rolling the dice for regular random LE.

 

[longtail55]

my best guess for general....

East - 4 points
West - 7 points
South - 7 points