WASHINGTON, D.C. (DTN) -- New York Mercantile Exchange oil futures and Brent
crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange powered higher early Monday,
briefly sending the U.S. and international crude benchmarks above $130 bbl
after U.S. and European officials said they are considering sanctions on
Russian oil exports in response to escalating violence in Ukraine, resorting to
the most potent economic pressure on the Russian government, but also removing
millions of barrels from the global market that is in dire need of supplies.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said over the weekend the United
States and Western allies are "in active discussions about banning imports of
Russian oil to our countries, while at the same time maintaining a steady
global supply of oil."
The unprecedent measure would remove as much as 5.7 million bpd of oil
instantaneously from the global oil market, lifting oil prices to unsustainably
high levels and chocking economies around the world. Exinity wealth management
estimates oil prices could jump above $200 bbl should Western economies
sanction Russian oil without a response from the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries.
To that end, U.S. officials are said to have initiated dialogue with the
Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro to quickly lift U.S. sanctions on the
country's oil exports that were under strict sanction regime since 2019. As of
2021, Petrleos de Venezuela SA, the country's state oil company, was producing
about 800,000 bpd -- only a quarter of what it pumped in the 1990s. Some
analysts suggest the country could get production up to 1.2 million bpd in
under eight months, particularly if Chevron, the only major American oil
producer in Venezuela, can step up production.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, Venezuelan exports would not be enough
to replace the loss of Russian barrels unless Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates quickly open up the taps, and sanctions on Iran were lifted allowing
the Islamic Republic to sell oil openly on the global market.
The issue of sanctioning Russian oil is particularly acute for European
Union that draws around 25% of its oil imports from Russia. European refiners
imported some 1.7 million bpd of Russian crude oil via tankers last year, 85%
of which consisted of Urals crude, according to data from Kpler. In addition to
waterborne flows, the Druzhba pipeline system can supply up to 1.4 million bpd
of Urals crude to the continent.
Total U.S. imports of Russian oil averaged 670,000 bpd or 7.9% of total
demand in 2021. It's also important to note that of this volume just 198,000
bpd was crude oil.
For Russia, however, the move would be devastating, cutting a vital artery
for the government and military budget. Oil and gas make up 60% of the Russian
economy's exports, accounting for nearly 20% of Russian gross domestic product
and 40% of Russian government revenues.
The EU is Russia's largest trading partner and accounts for nearly 40% of
Russia's total global trade, with about half of Russia's oil exports and 70% of
their natural gas exports going to Europe.
Even prior to sanctions chatter, oil traders have been reluctant to deal
with Russian oil exports, increasingly wary of dealing with Russian oil given
the legal and reputational risks involved. Analysts estimate a "self-imposed"
embargo cut as much as 2.5 million bpd from the global oil market in recent
days.
The list of companies fleeing Russia's energy complex have now expanded to
ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and British Petroleum, as investors increasingly
view Russian business as toxic. J.P. Morgan estimates that nearly 70% of
Russian oil is currently struggling to find buyers.
So far, economic sanctions have done little to change Russian President
Vladimir Putin's strategy in Ukraine, with reports suggesting shelling against
civilians is getting progressively worse across major cities. Several major
Ukrainian cities, including Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Odessa, have been or
are close to being encircled by Russian military, trapping over five million
people, and creating a humanitarian catastrophe.
Near 7:45 AM ET, NYMEX April West Texas Intermediate rallied $4.92 to trade
at $120.66 bbl, and ICE Brent May contract advanced $6.14 to $124.20 bbl. NYMEX
April RBOB futures surged 14.16cts to $3.6856 gallon, and April ULSD futures
spiked 21.35cts to $3.9877 gallon.
Thank you for your business,