Selling Public Land for Budget Reconciliatory Bill

[Pucky Freak]

The phrasing of the questions being asked likely lead to heavy response bias though, let’s be real. In many instances, the hypothetical benefit of keeping status quo was over emphasized while the hypothetical negatives of PLT/sale were clearly the point of emphasis.

I’m not sure the information presented in those surveys is legitimate data.

I think you just edged yourself out of being the “transferable LO tag guy” to being the “data isn’t real, man”

By all means, please provide links to unbiased surveys that show completely different results on these topics. Phrasing does matter, but overcoming 10:1 or 5:1 positions on issues is a tall order no matter how you serve it up.

 

[Forkyfinder]

The phrasing of the questions being asked likely lead to heavy response bias though, let’s be real. In many instances, the hypothetical benefit of keeping status quo was over emphasized while the hypothetical negatives of PLT/sale were clearly the point of emphasis.

I’m not sure the information presented in those surveys is legitimate data.

Point me to that, please.

Theres 2 pretty unbiased questions. Its pretty flat.

 

[Hunting Wife]

The phrasing of the questions being asked likely lead to heavy response bias though, let’s be real. In many instances, the hypothetical benefit of keeping status quo was over emphasized while the hypothetical negatives of PLT/sale were clearly the point of emphasis.

I’m not sure the information presented in those surveys is legitimate data.

One thing I am confident of is that citizens of every western state I have worked or lived in do seem to be vastly more pro-public lands than folks from Wisconsin I see speak on the issue.

 

[Treeshark]

One thing I am confident of is that citizens of every western state I have worked or lived in do seem to be vastly more pro-public lands than folks from Wisconsin I see speak on the issue.

That could very well be, I have no reason to doubt your personal experience.

My point isn’t that western residents aren’t pro-public land. It does appear that the some of questions being asked in the survey appear to me to be leading ones.

 

[Treeshark]

Theres 2 pretty unbiased questions. Its pretty flat.

Thanks for doing my homework for me, those were the exact two examples I would have chosen.

Careful wordsmithing to elicit a desired response is not unusual in polling, perhaps we just see it differently in this case.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Thanks for doing my homework for me, those were the exact two examples I would have chosen.

Careful wordsmithing to elicit a desired response is not unusual in polling, perhaps we just see it differently in this case.

Where is the bias?

In pointing out that the state would hold management and costs?

 

[Treeshark]

Where is the bias?

In pointing out that the state would hold management and costs?

Yes. Absent of equal emphasis on potential benefit, that question is leading the respondent to a desired response.

Consider the following two questions- one seemingly simple, one with a bit more info but ostensibly asking the same thing?:

1. Do you support predator management to promote a healthy ecosystem?

2. Some people run coyotes down with snowmobiles, wound wolves and parade them around in bars, and shoot sow bears in front of their cubs. Do you support all forms of predator hunting?

Word choice is a powerful tool in surveys.

 

[Forkyfinder]

Yes. Absent of equal emphasis on potential benefit, that question is leading the respondent to a desired response.

The management is the benefit.

 

[Treeshark]

The management is the benefit.

I think it would likely be viewed by many that management responsibility is as much a liability as it is an asset.

 

[Forkyfinder]

It would likely be perceived many most as much a liability as it would an asset.

Which - accurately reflects the issue.

 

[Treeshark]

Which - accurately reflects the issue.

Yep. So does my example of predator hunting questions.

Both “accurate” and yet would likely lead to very different results.

 

[rogerthat]

I heard Burgum say in an interview that most Wrsterners are on board with selling public lands, except Montanans, because “they’re different”. I hope that’s not true, but it was also kind of telling.

Yeah unfortunately Burgum doesn’t appear to be interested in truthful and factual discourse from what I have seen. Just pushing an agenda. He has been a giant disappointment for me.

Unfortunately, even if this ill conceived reconciliation bill public land sale idea can be stopped, I suspect the next battle will be a push by Burgum and DOI to make good on disposal of any lands already identified for disposal in an existing land plan.

And for anyone reading this that think these lands probably don’t have much wildlife or public value if they are already identified for disposal, you would be wrong. I hunted an absolute monarch of a public land Montana whitetail on one of these parcels 10 years ago. A 190 class buck.

 

[Big Fin]

To address the critics who usually claim "survey bias" when survey results don't agree with their own biases, this study has hired two different groups to conduct the survey jointly. As you see, one is a survey group for Rs and one does the same for Ds.

If there is a bias in these results, nobody has ever been able to show me a credible, long-standing survey that is contrary to these findings. Until I'm shown such contrary findings, I'll go with the longest-standing bi-partisan survey I've been able to find.

 

[nrpate05]

I think it is important to emphasize the process that this is being done through. FLPMA already has a process for disposing of public lands and those lands are outlined in local resource management plans. Disposal includes the NEPA process, public comment, etc. A budget reconciliation bill is not the place to do it and sets a bad precedent. I wonder if this kind of softer messaging will change some minds in DC?

 

[SAJ-99]

That could very well be, I have no reason to doubt your personal experience.

My point isn’t that western residents aren’t pro-public land. It does appear that the some of questions being asked in the survey appear to me to be leading ones.

Every survey question can be looked at that way. It is usually because the questions need to be "interpreted" so the taker puts their own view to "simplify" the questions. That is the case in almost every survey question on "views". No way to avoid it IMO.

The problem is probably our cognitive dissonance. We hold views that are totally the opposite of each other, and both can be valid.
We worry about debt and deficits, but think our taxes are too high.
We don't believe the US should be run by an aristocracy of land barons, but believe in private property rights and hate death/estate taxes.
I would bet you could have asked the exact same people some version on if they hate the federal government and the answer would flip in a lot of those states.

 

[Treeshark]

I would bet you could have asked the exact same people some version on if they hate the federal government and the answer would flip in a lot of those states.

Yes I agree.

Not saying it’s not strategically a good play here, more so that we should be careful relying too heavily on those surveys in forming our own opinions.

 

[Forkyfinder]

@Treeshark surely in the world of PLT - you can find a biased survey that reflects your views?

 

[BuzzH]

@Treeshark surely in the world of PLT - you can find a biased survey that reflects your views?

Yeah, he could survey Mike Lee (R) Utah, his hero.

 

[Treeshark]

@Treeshark surely in the world of PLT - you can find a biased survey that reflects your views?

There is ample evidence that most people prefer decision-making power to rest with state and local governments vs federal.

 

[Forkyfinder]

There is ample evidence that most people prefer decision-making power to rest with state and local governments vs federal.

Ample *unquoted and unprovided* evidence