New Mexico Outfitter Draw Set-Aside is Toast -Finally !

[CMF]

75% or more of NonResidents applying in the outfitter pool will switch to the DIY NR pool

99% of the residents applying in the outfitter pool will switch to the DIY resident pool

So what do you think the other %25 of NR is going to do? And why?

Additional DIY non residents will apply because more hunt codes will be open to them and more net tags will garnish interest

What hunt codes are not available now that are going to suddenly bring someone in from the sidelines? I can see some fresh headlines drawing interest, but it's obvious that net tags in the pool aren't going to increase the odds of tags in hand for NR.

End result will probably be flat to slightly harder draw odds for DIY NR and flat to slightly easier draw odds for DIY residents

Even if your assumption is right, of only %75 NR in the outfitter pool switching to the diy pool(plus the additional that you assume), the math is clear, it will be much worse than "slightly harder" odds.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

So what do you think the other %25 of NR is going to do? And why?


What hunt codes are not available now that are going to suddenly bring someone in from the sidelines? I can see some fresh headlines drawing interest, but it's obvious that net tags in the pool aren't going to increase the odds of tags in hand for NR.


Even if your assumption is right, of only %75 NR in the outfitter pool switching to the diy pool(plus the additional that you assume), the math is clear, it will be much worse than "slightly harder" odds.

I said 75% or more. My guess is you'll have some people in the guided pool drop out with lower draw odds and not wanting to pay the license fee to apply with no points gained on the investment.

Look at the hunts that are currently between 10 and 12 tags. Currently DIY NR have no chance at those, if it goes to 90/10, they will. Quite a few pronghorn tags like this.

NR DIY pool will get 4% more tags. 75% x 90% x 10% is 6.75%. So your right, odds will go down, slightly is relative i guess

 

[CMF]

Look at the hunts that are currently between 10 and 12 tags. Currently DIY NR have no chance at those, if it goes to 90/10, they will. Quite a few pronghorn tags like this.

Yea, I didn't think there were too many hunts like that. Pronghorn is the only one I don't always put in for. I do know Mcgregor range ES barbary is one of them. That would add a hunt that didn't previously exist. I even emailed the state and bio's about that hunt, because there are so many F/IM tags but not enough es tags that nr has a chance at a mature ram tag.
But anyway, I can't imagine more than a fraction of a percentage of people are going to suddenly jump in because of one tag on one hunt. Especially considering they could have applied for that hunt in the guided pool if it's a hunt they're really after.

NR DIY pool will get 4% more tags. 75% x 90% x 10% is 6.75%. So your right, odds will go down, slightly is relative i guess

If ~33% reduction is "slightly" to you, then I suppose you're right.
Maybe you missed the math on the numbers from actual previous draw data in post #38...
Here's a piece of it

• Current situation (2026 actual results)Total tags issued: 60,719Nonresidents actually drew: 9,059 tags (≈14.92% of total)→ This came from the 6% DIY nonresident pool (≈3,643 tags) + the portion of the 10% guided pool that went to nonresidents (≈5,416 tags).
• New 90/10 structureResident pool: 90% = 54,647 tagsNonresident pool: 10% = 6,072 tags
• Key point: The total number of nonresident applicants does not change under your assumption. All previous nonresident applicants (DIY + guided) would now compete together in the single 10% nonresident pool.

Result for nonresidents:They would receive only 6,072 tags instead of 9,059 while facing the same number of applicants.

Their overall success rate (odds) would therefore drop to ≈67% of current odds (a reduction of about 33%). Exact calculation:6,072 ÷ 9,059 ≈ 0.670 (or 67.0%).



As this keeps getting branded as a "win for non-residents", and "more non-resident tags", I would wager that we would see a total increase in NR applicants as those on the sidelines think this might finally be their year to apply.

 

[WildWill]

So what if my terrible odds get a little more terrible in the NR DIY draw. Small price to pay IMO for getting rid of the outfitter draw. It's a absolute BS welfare system that helps private enterprises profit off a public resource. I understand why guy's use the outfitter draw to up their odds and I get it. I hate the game not the player. But other then "it helps my odds" or "it'll hurt my odd" I'm not hearing much else. Are odds really the biggest concern on this issue? How about it's a horrible system that flies in the face of the NAM and directly helps to monetize wildlife? Outfitters will still have plenty of clients from the draw, and landowner tags will still be available. The only change I see is middle men won't be able to make a profit from helping people cut in line.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

So what if my terrible odds get a little more terrible in the NR DIY draw. Small price to pay IMO for getting rid of the outfitter draw. It's a absolute BS welfare system that helps private enterprises profit off a public resource. I understand why guy's use the outfitter draw to up their odds and I get it. I hate the game not the player. But other then "it helps my odds" or "it'll hurt my odd" I'm not hearing much else. Are odds really the biggest concern on this issue? How about it's a horrible system that flies in the face of the NAM and directly helps to monetize wildlife? Outfitters will still have plenty of clients from the draw, and landowner tags will still be available. The only change I see is middle men won't be able to make a profit from helping people cut in line.

Totally agree. Its not only the "welfare" system its also the abuse of that pool with the stupid 2 day rule.

 

[CMF]

It's a absolute BS welfare system that helps private enterprises profit off a public resource.

I agree with your statement.

So what if my terrible odds get a little more terrible in the NR DIY draw. Small price to pay IMO for getting rid of the outfitter draw.

I'm just pointing out that going to 90/10 will reduce NR odds. There are guys on this and other forums who are trying to sell 90/10 as a win for both sides, and that simply isn't true. An 85/15 split would be break-even for both sides, as that is how tags have been allocated in previous draws.

But other then "it helps my odds" or "it'll hurt my odd" I'm not hearing much else. Are odds really the biggest concern on this issue?

Yes. Odds are the issue that is driving this. Residents not drawing tags is the issue driving this. The outfitter pool is the lowest-hanging fruit to go after.

Outfitters will still have plenty of clients from the draw

If outfitters have the same number of clients when this shakes out, then what really is accomplished? If it goes to a 90/10 split and outfitters have the same number of clients, the only loser is NR's and their odds.

The only change I see is middle men won't be able to make a profit from helping people cut in line.

I assume you're talking about the 2-day guide?
I agree, it's a little BS.
But if the alternative is giving up 3,000 or 1/3 of the NR tags just to do away with it, then I'd rather stick to what we have.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

I agree with your statement.

I'm just pointing out that going to 90/10 will reduce NR odds. There are guys on this and other forums who are trying to sell 90/10 as a win for both sides, and that simply isn't true. An 85/15 split would be break-even for both sides, as that is how tags have been allocated in previous draws.

Yes. Odds are the issue that is driving this. Residents not drawing tags is the issue driving this. The outfitter pool is the lowest-hanging fruit to go after.

If outfitters have the same number of clients when this shakes out, then what really is accomplished? If it goes to a 90/10 split and outfitters have the same number of clients, the only loser is NR's and their odds.


I assume you're talking about the 2-day guide?
I agree, it's a little BS.
But if the alternative is giving up 3,000 or 1/3 of the NR tags just to do away with it, then I'd rather stick to what we have.

If this is being sold to the DIY NR as a better chance to get a tag or better odds, I would agree with you that it's false advertising. However the facts are that there will be more DIY NR net tags, more available hunts and it will be "more fair". You dont get better odds by paying for it by using an outfitter and that just sits better with most people. But let's be honest, this change is 99% about more resident tags, no reason to pretend otherwise.