New Mexico Outfitter Draw Set-Aside is Toast -Finally !

[bayoublaster7527]

You guys really need to do the math before you get excited about this as a NR. It definitely moves the needle in. In the wrong direction.
This will absolutely hurt DIY NR odds. Of the 10% outfitter pool, 90% of those apps are non-residents. Meaning right now, about 15% of the tags go to NR. If the NR from the outfitter pool moves to the DIY pool, and the total NR pool is reduced to 10%, It's not going to be good for NR draw odds.

I don't blame the residents for pushing this, but don't be fooled by the ones saying this is a win for non-residents.

It sounds good on the surface, but it doesn't math out. You would actually see a decline in odds..
At least, with some basic assumptions that:
If the guide pool goes away, those people still apply in either the r or nr pool
The data stays similar to that of previous years.

If the guided/outfitter pool is eliminated and replaced with a straight 90/10 split (90% of all tags to a resident-only pool and 10% to a nonresident-only pool), nonresident odds would worsen significantly.

Here’s the exact impact, based on the actual 2026 draw numbers and the assumption that everyone who applied in the guided pool simply reapplies in their correct residency category (guided nonresidents move to the new nonresident pool; guided residents move to the new resident pool):

• Current situation (2026 actual results)Total tags issued: 60,719Nonresidents actually drew: 9,059 tags (≈14.92% of total)→ This came from the 6% DIY nonresident pool (≈3,643 tags) + the portion of the 10% guided pool that went to nonresidents (≈5,416 tags).
• New 90/10 structureResident pool: 90% = 54,647 tagsNonresident pool: 10% = 6,072 tags
• Key point: The total number of nonresident applicants does not change under your assumption. All previous nonresident applicants (DIY + guided) would now compete together in the single 10% nonresident pool.

Result for nonresidents:They would receive only 6,072 tags instead of 9,059 while facing the same number of applicants.

Their overall success rate (odds) would therefore drop to ≈67% of current odds (a reduction of about 33%). Exact calculation:6,072 ÷ 9,059 ≈ 0.670 (or 67.0%).

This is an overall average across the entire big-game draw.

• On popular species like elk and deer, where the guided pool is used almost exclusively by nonresidents, the drop would be very close to this 33% reduction.
• On species like bighorn sheep (where more residents use the guided pool), the impact on nonresidents would be slightly less severe, but still a net loss of tags.

In short: Nonresidents would be competing for roughly one-third fewer tags in a single larger pool, making every hunt code noticeably harder to draw. Residents, by contrast, would see their pool grow from ~85% to 90% of tags, improving their overall odds.

Absolutely. If NM residents want to get rid of the outfitter draw that is 100% their prerogative. But spinning it as somehow benefiting NR DIY hunters just doesn’t seem to bear out when you run the numbers with most NRs from the guided draw jumping over into the combined NR pool.

And I also have a hard time believing this myth that it’s so difficult for NM residents to draw tags. Like many things, I suppose it depends on what you apply for. If you are in for the Gila and Valle Vidal every year you probably won’t draw many elk tags.