New Mexico Outfitter Draw Set-Aside is Toast -Finally !

[CMF]

75% or more of NonResidents applying in the outfitter pool will switch to the DIY NR pool

99% of the residents applying in the outfitter pool will switch to the DIY resident pool

So what do you think the other %25 of NR is going to do? And why?

Additional DIY non residents will apply because more hunt codes will be open to them and more net tags will garnish interest

What hunt codes are not available now that are going to suddenly bring someone in from the sidelines? I can see some fresh headlines drawing interest, but it's obvious that net tags in the pool aren't going to increase the odds of tags in hand for NR.

End result will probably be flat to slightly harder draw odds for DIY NR and flat to slightly easier draw odds for DIY residents

Even if your assumption is right, of only %75 NR in the outfitter pool switching to the diy pool(plus the additional that you assume), the math is clear, it will be much worse than "slightly harder" odds.

 

[5yearcoueshunter]

So what do you think the other %25 of NR is going to do? And why?


What hunt codes are not available now that are going to suddenly bring someone in from the sidelines? I can see some fresh headlines drawing interest, but it's obvious that net tags in the pool aren't going to increase the odds of tags in hand for NR.


Even if your assumption is right, of only %75 NR in the outfitter pool switching to the diy pool(plus the additional that you assume), the math is clear, it will be much worse than "slightly harder" odds.

I said 75% or more. My guess is you'll have some people in the guided pool drop out with lower draw odds and not wanting to pay the license fee to apply with no points gained on the investment.

Look at the hunts that are currently between 10 and 12 tags. Currently DIY NR have no chance at those, if it goes to 90/10, they will. Quite a few pronghorn tags like this.

NR DIY pool will get 4% more tags. 75% x 90% x 10% is 6.75%. So your right, odds will go down, slightly is relative i guess