Nevada draw

[Zim]

Oneye, I strongly agree with what others have posted here. If you are on the ground floor, don't buy into Nevada. It's a terrible value for your dollars due to 20 years of guys with squared points ahead of you. But their draw system is doomed to collapse, so who knows what will happen then. It's just you never know what the system will morph into down the road. Stick with stress where you know you can draw mediocre units every 3-5 years.

 

[Thomas11]

Well I’m in this yr on ground floor. I’m pretty good w odds etc. and it is obviously the worst value state out there in my opinion w maybe the exception of Oregon and Washington. But honestly, I really don’t have a glory tag state so I needed some kinda hope! I’m on the waiting list in Utah, drew AZ this yr and should draw WY next yr. so only other trophy type tag is really NM, which I apply as well. But it too went up to basically 100 bucks for a random chance every yr. AZ and Utah are way better deals then NV by far. Half the price or less for both and much better draw odds

 

[Carnage2011]

Well I’m in this yr on ground floor. I’m pretty good w odds etc. and it is obviously the worst value state out there in my opinion w maybe the exception of Oregon and Washington. But honestly, I really don’t have a glory tag state so I needed some kinda hope! I’m on the waiting list in Utah, drew AZ this yr and should draw WY next yr. so only other trophy type tag is really NM, which I apply as well. But it too went up to basically 100 bucks for a random chance every yr. AZ and Utah are way better deals then NV by far. Half the price or less for both and much better draw odds

Interesting that you believe Utah to be a better deal that NV. I'd say if you archery deer hunt Nevada has 10000x better value than Utah. Both states have tough odds for elk and sheep, but if you want to have a quality deer hunt with very few hunters NV is much better than Utah. You can draw the utah general quite often, but you'll have a ton of hunters and mostly smaller deer (yes, I know a couple giants are killed every year). A lot of guys chase the 231 and 241 deer tags in NV and whine about not drawing for 20 years. You can draw some really solid deer units with 3-5 points, and probably have a better chance of shooting a nice buck than waiting 20 years to draw one tag. Don't get stuck in the rut of chasing the top end tags and you'll have a good chance of drawing with fairly low points.

 

[Mattff200]

Interesting that you believe Utah to be a better deal that NV. I'd say if you archery deer hunt Nevada has 10000x better value than Utah. Both states have tough odds for elk and sheep, but if you want to have a quality deer hunt with very few hunters NV is much better than Utah. You can draw the utah general quite often, but you'll have a ton of hunters and mostly smaller deer (yes, I know a couple giants are killed every year). A lot of guys chase the 231 and 241 deer tags in NV and whine about not drawing for 20 years. You can draw some really solid deer units with 3-5 points, and probably have a better chance of shooting a nice buck than waiting 20 years to draw one tag. Don't get stuck in the rut of chasing the top end tags and you'll have a good chance of drawing with fairly low points.

I agree with that but with five choices you can chase 231 and 241 tags with your first couple choices just incase you get lucky and end with hunts that you ate more likely to draw.

 

[Thomas11]

Interesting that you believe Utah to be a better deal that NV. I'd say if you archery deer hunt Nevada has 10000x better value than Utah. Both states have tough odds for elk and sheep, but if you want to have a quality deer hunt with very few hunters NV is much better than Utah. You can draw the utah general quite often, but you'll have a ton of hunters and mostly smaller deer (yes, I know a couple giants are killed every year). A lot of guys chase the 231 and 241 deer tags in NV and whine about not drawing for 20 years. You can draw some really solid deer units with 3-5 points, and probably have a better chance of shooting a nice buck than waiting 20 years to draw one tag. Don't get stuck in the rut of chasing the top end tags and you'll have a good chance of drawing with fairly low points.

Yea I really shoulda clarified better. I do believe u prolly right on the deer front. It is my understanding that NV has some pretty good deer hunts w a few pts. I was coming at it w a emphasis on elk I guess. But still the license in Utah is much cheaper and can be bought every other yr and the general hunts aren’t terrible. Anyways, I’m in it now! I obviously applied for deer since I bought the license. If there’s any recommendations for deer u have there shoot me a PM. I’m def not a glory tag kinda guy so I would be real interested in some deer hunts w a few pts

 

[ImBillT]

From the elk standpoint UT is the better deal. The odds of drawing once in the next twenty years similar, but due point squaring in NV, and UT pulling some of the highest point holders out of the drawing in the first round, the odds of drawing earlier in those twenty years is better in UT. NVs point system will likely collapse before any other state as well.

I’d like to see the average age of an elk hunter who draws a tag in NV vs other western states, especially ID, MT, and NM. I bet it would be revealing.

 

[Gr8bawana]

The situation for drawing tags is what it is. We may not like the rules but then nobody is forcing us to play the game.

 

[Auburnpack]

Well the elk, sheep, and mule deer are much better in NV/Utah than what I can hunt here in NC.
I am already applying for all other western states except Montana.

 

[Sliverflipper]

I love it when people keep claiming that Nevada's point system will crash. Having been on a county advisory board for 10 years I saw firsthand how it works. By squaring the points all they are doing is giving you more chances to draw a low number. Which if I remember correctly is between 1 and 100,000,000. Then they look at all your choices before moving on to the next number. In 2005 I drew my first archery bull elk and desert bighorn tag. Didn't shoot a bull because I was chasing 3 bulls that were around the 400 mark and was willing to eat the tag and wait 5 years and start over. People thought I was crazy when they saw the bulls I was passing up but it was my choice. I killed my sheep and he was the biggest in the area taken for about 5 years. In 2015 I drew another archery bull tag and shot a 6 x 8 that green scored 373 and I had to take him because he was so unique. People asked why I should get a second tag when some people have never had one and I told them I'm going to draw a third as well as another sheep tag. If you understand how it works, and don't get hung up on what the so called experts tell you, you can play the game and actually be successful. It doesn't matter if you are just starting out or have 20 points, someone has to draw the low number! Put in for 3 or 4 premium areas and if you want to hunt put in for a marginal area last. Even the marginal areas in Nevada put out some monsters every year. I helped a guy who worked for me last year and he passed up over 80 bucks before he decided to kill one and it was an early rifle hunt in a non premium area but every year someone kills a monster. Don't handicap yourself by buying into the hype. By the way, I'm 53, retired for 5 years now, back in the sheep draw game and only 3 years away from being back in the elk draw. I apply in 5 western states and have drawn 4 Montana archery elk tags and killed 4 bulls which is why I think they haven't given me one for a couple years but it doesn't stop me from trying. Hunting is what I love and am not going to stop trying to get tags. I have to blow my money somewhere!

 

[Sliverflipper]

Sorry for the long rant but I just got done listening to someone piss and moan about it not being fair and he was gonna go eat worms, blah blah blah. Someone has to draw and it might as well be us!

 

[ImBillT]

Sorry for the long rant but I just got done listening to someone piss and moan about it not being fair and he was gonna go eat worms, blah blah blah. Someone has to draw and it might as well be us!

Most people saying anything negative about applying in NV are simply saying that it should be toward the bottom of your list if you are not a NV resident and can’t afford to apply in all the states you would like to hunt.

You seem to be a resident. Your price to apply is far lower than for a NR and your odds of drawing a tag are far higher. When you drew your first archery bull tag in 2005, the highest point holders had twelve points, or 145 random numbers. Today the highest point holding resident has twenty-six points or 677 random numbers. The situation will continue to compound year after year. A hunter with 26pts is 677 times more likely to draw a sufficiently low number than a new applicant. Next year it will be 730 to 2, followed by 785 to 5, 842 to 10, 901 to 17. That’s only comparing one applicants relative odds to another’s, but each year the number of applicants with more than X points increases as well. You said it yourself. All they’re doing is giving the point holder more chances to draw a low number. This year they’re giving him 676 more chances. There will be an unavoidable point in the future at which someone your age, who started applying at age twelve, will have 41 points, or 1681 more chances to draw a low number than someone just starting out. It’s unavoidable because the number of applicants sufficiently exceeds the number of tags to prevent clearing of all high point holders for perpetuity. With each passing year you’ll see the average number of points held by tag holders increase, and you’ll see the average age of tag holders increase. That is until it breaks under its own weight, or hunting becomes sufficiently unpopular.

Point systems do not increase or decrease opportunity. They skew the distribution of opportunity, and the skewness increases with each passing year.

If anyone has a strong desire to hunt NV, then they should apply, because that’s the only way they’ll draw a tag. On the other hand, if they simply want to go hunting as often as possible, they need to consider whether applying in NV will result in their inability to apply somewhere else. If so, then NV is statistically a bad call. If it won’t prevent them from applying in the other states they want to apply in, then why not add NV? You apply in five states. It’s probable that even if you were not a NV resident, the money you would spend each year applying in NV would not prevent you from applying somewhere else that you want to hunt. For me on the other hand, if I added NV to my list of applications, I would have to remove another state(or two). I have to ask myself if the current situation in NV is worth dropping another state that I’m more likely to draw a tag in.

For a resident elk hunter there are five archery hunts and one rifle hunt above 1% draw odds with zero points, and the highest is 14%. For a non-resident, the highest draw odds elk hunt for zero points is .19%.

 

[Thomas11]

Most people saying anything negative about applying in NV are simply saying that it should be toward the bottom of your list if you are not a NV resident and can’t afford to apply in all the states you would like to hunt.

You seem to be a resident. Your price to apply is far lower than for a NR and your odds of drawing a tag are far higher. When you drew your first archery bull tag in 2005, the highest point holders had twelve points, or 145 random numbers. Today the highest point holding resident has twenty-six points or 677 random numbers. The situation will continue to compound year after year. A hunter with 26pts is 677 times more likely to draw a sufficiently low number than a new applicant. Next year it will be 730 to 2, followed by 785 to 5, 842 to 10, 901 to 17. That’s only comparing one applicants relative odds to another’s, but each year the number of applicants with more than X points increases as well. You said it yourself. All they’re doing is giving the point holder more chances to draw a low number. This year they’re giving him 676 more chances. There will be an unavoidable point in the future at which someone your age, who started applying at age twelve, will have 41 points, or 1681 more chances to draw a low number than someone just starting out. It’s unavoidable because the number of applicants sufficiently exceeds the number of tags to prevent clearing of all high point holders for perpetuity. With each passing year you’ll see the average number of points held by tag holders increase, and you’ll see the average age of tag holders increase. That is until it breaks under its own weight, or hunting becomes sufficiently unpopular.

Point systems do not increase or decrease opportunity. They skew the distribution of opportunity, and the skewness increases with each passing year.

If anyone has a strong desire to hunt NV, then they should apply, because that’s the only way they’ll draw a tag. On the other hand, if they simply want to go hunting as often as possible, they need to consider whether applying in NV will result in their inability to apply somewhere else. If so, then NV is statistically a bad call. If it won’t prevent them from applying in the other states they want to apply in, then why not add NV? You apply in five states. It’s probable that even if you were not a NV resident, the money you would spend each year applying in NV would not prevent you from applying somewhere else that you want to hunt. For me on the other hand, if I added NV to my list of applications, I would have to remove another state(or two). I have to ask myself if the current situation in NV is worth dropping another state that I’m more likely to draw a tag in.

For a resident elk hunter there are five archery hunts and one rifle hunt above 1% draw odds with zero points, and the highest is 14%. For a non-resident, the highest draw odds elk hunt for zero points is .19%.

Very well put. I don’t think most ppl realize the real truth behind the numbers. It’s very demoralizing lol

 

[Desk Pop]

I hear a lot of talk about NV's system imploding. I tend to disagree. I think people forget supply and demand. Everyone points to NM and ID as great states for those new to the game. NM has only 6% of tags going to NR without an outfitter. That is not a lot...like maybe one sheep tag and two rifle ibex tags. ID gives up to 10%, but it is $275 for 1-100 chance at a sheep or maybe 1-50 chance at a goat....$275 people...which is worth it if you are already hunting Idaho anyway. So here are my thoughts: at some point, enough newcomers will put in for ID and NM and the odds will get worse and worse to where $275/year (which keeps rising) is not worth it to start at the same level. There are "x" tags in the west, which fluxuate a bit, but opportunity is not rising. Moose are struggling. Starting new sheep herds is like lighting a match in a hurricane. And when goat and sheep habitat overlap, most departments favor sheep, so goats lose. And...western hunting has gotten sexier and sexier each year....more and more instaclowns saying, "look at me look at me," more and more applicants. Every new guy who puts in for random draw states make them less appealing over time.

So this idea that NV or other states will implode is not as likely as some think. I think people would rather have something to show for their money as the odds of the random non-point states decrease. Eventually odds get so bad they aren't worth considering and it is a shit-shoot on either, and a shit-shoot with points is more appealing than a shit-shoot with no points.

Point systems have issues, but I do not see them going away. Supply is stagnant at best and probably decreasing in the OIL species. Demand is rising fast. Hunters can either put in for draws, or buy guided hunts, which, I might add, have prices that are rising fast as well. The other option is OTC.

 

[brownbear932008]

I tend to disagree because at the end of the day these states want licence fees and P&R funds brought into their budgets and they could care less about your points you have paid dearly for over the years. Because fact is systems that have pp and squared points ect ect do not attract new hunters just coming into the game which equals less money for these budgets. Look closely at what happened in AZ. prime example they threw their high point holders under the bus basically and I think it won't be the last state to do so over time. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think I am.
Now being in the game a while I love squared point systems but if I where a new hunter just beginning I'd feel totally screwed in such a system like NV or MT. Sure they still "could" draw but the chances are so slim for them.
At the end of the day the decisions will be based on the old mighty $$ by these states.

 

[Gr8bawana]

 

[ImBillT]

View attachment 105460

There’s a big difference between focusing only on the negative, and using logic to choose which states fit your budget and plans most effectively.

Opportunity is essentially tags/hunters. Point schemes or lack thereof do not really change opportunity. They change the distribution of opportunity. Random draws have equally distributed opportunity. BP draws have linearly distributed opportunity favoring those with more points. Squared BP draws distribute it quadratically. Then there are preference points. Nevada doesn’t have enough opportunity for everyone. Points don’t fix it in the long term. If applications trends continue, in twenty-four years there will be people with fifty point who have never drawn an elk tag, and it won’t be because they were holding out. A random system would not result in everyone eventually getting a tag. Elk in NV is essentially once i a lifetime regardless of the scheme(random, bonus, preference). The issue is that as the point system matures, it becomes more and more likely that the day you draw you’ll be too old to enjoy it.

It’s an undeniable fact that it changes the distribution to favor those who have applied the longest without drawing. In a state, or for a species with limited opportunity, that favorability gets out of hand.