Nevada draw who is applying?

Mattff200

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Mar 1, 2019
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I put in for everything. First year applying there, any chance I get my results earlier than the published date?
 

LopeHunter

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I put in for everything. First year applying there, any chance I get my results earlier than the published date?
Results are tomorrow per F&G alert I was sent re was time to resolve any credit card issues if something changed since day applied.

Here is the email:

Check Your Credit Card Before the Draw

Nevada's Big Game Draw takes place on Wednesday (May 22)! Results will be posted to your account on May 24. Double check the default credit card on your account by logging into ndowlicensing.com, and clicking "Payment Methods" on the left side of your profile under "My Account".

If you change or add a new card, make sure the correct card is set it as your "default" card, so the right card will be charged. You can do this by clicking the down arrow next to the card you want to use, and selecting "Set Default".
 

Carnage2011

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Whitehall, MT
Results are tomorrow per F&G alert I was sent re was time to resolve any credit card issues if something changed since day applied.

Here is the email:

Check Your Credit Card Before the Draw

Nevada's Big Game Draw takes place on Wednesday (May 22)! Results will be posted to your account on May 24. Double check the default credit card on your account by logging into ndowlicensing.com, and clicking "Payment Methods" on the left side of your profile under "My Account".

If you change or add a new card, make sure the correct card is set it as your "default" card, so the right card will be charged. You can do this by clicking the down arrow next to the card you want to use, and selecting "Set Default".
We must have different calendars. Mine says the 24th is Friday....not tomorrow.
 

rtraverdavis

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OREGON
No credit card hit today, so I’m going with Fin’s explanation that they’ll run cards after the draw...
 

p_ham

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Jul 6, 2017
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Fallon, NV
They ran cards when results came out last year. The old system used to hit early but NV switched from systems consultants to kalkomey starting 2018. This week has been draaaggggiiiing by.
 

Elkdog

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Oct 7, 2014
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Nevada
Interesting. I figured since they’d be conducting the draw today, they’d be hitting cards too. I was looking forward to futilely checking my statement every five minutes today.
I did check my CC statement every 5 minutes. I’m surprised I didn’t get some type of attempted fraud alert call. LOL. Alright, Friday it is then.....
 

Rodzilla

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Apr 9, 2016
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Nor Cal
Did anyone watch the live draw? It s was like watching pain draw, figured it was more involved than just pressing a few buttons on a Mac computer. Anyways results can't be here soon enough, I applied for everything, with 11 points for deer 5 for antelope and 16 for elk and sheep(s), thinking may actually draw my last choice deer. very doubtful for everything else.. good luck everyone.
 

BrokenArrow

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Mar 23, 2017
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Did anyone watch the live draw? It s was like watching pain draw, figured it was more involved than just pressing a few buttons on a Mac computer. Anyways results can't be here soon enough, I applied for everything, with 11 points for deer 5 for antelope and 16 for elk and sheep(s), thinking may actually draw my last choice deer. very doubtful for everything else.. good luck everyone.
I opened the youtube link on my 2nd screen in the office. Watched until they started the draw program process (10 mins) and then they left the room. Then I forgot about it.
About two hours later they walked back on screen suddenly and scared the s(*t out of me.
Then the poor deputy attorney on the left just played on his phone, while the other guy copied and pasted for 30 minutes. It was funny to me that they seemed so nonchalant about the fact that they held the future of so many peoples lives on one "unnamed" thumb drive!
Draws are sacred, sacred moments. At least name the drive that goes to Ndow...

One thing I did notice was that the one screen shot of their computer stated that 8391 unique applicants generated approx 319,616 individual/party applications and 6,609,763 unique random numbers. 28,177 total tags available. Yikes.
That includes Silver state, Resident, and Non-res applications. ImBillT care to chime in?
That part was interesting. It got my gears turning and can't wait to see the draw statistics later.

I kinda want to do a Freedom of Info Act to see what my lowest number was? or I'll just wait til Friday.
 
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ImBillT

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Oct 29, 2018
Messages
614
I opened the youtube link on my 2nd screen in the office. Watched until they started the draw program process (10 mins) and then they left the room. Then I forgot about it.
About two hours later they walked back on screen suddenly and scared the s(*t out of me.
Then the poor deputy attorney on the left just played on his phone, while the other guy copied and pasted for 30 minutes. It was funny to me that they seemed so nonchalant about the fact that they held the future of so many peoples lives on one "unnamed" thumb drive!
Draws are sacred, sacred moments. At least name the drive that goes to Ndow...

One thing I did notice was that the one screen shot of their computer stated that 8391 unique applicants generated approx 319,616 individual/party applications and 6,609,763 unique random numbers. 28,177 total tags available. Yikes.
That includes Silver state, Resident, and Non-res applications. ImBillT care to chime in?
That part was interesting. It got my gears turning and can't wait to see the draw statistics later.

I kinda want to do a Freedom of Info Act to see what my lowest number was? or I'll just wait til Friday.
Either I’m misunderstanding something, you got something wrong, or something is incredibly fishy. Those number don’t make sense at all. If 8391 applicants generated 319,616 applications, that would mean that each applicant applied for an average of 38 different hunts. I don’t have to look very deep to know that seems wrong. Next, 6,609,763/319,616 means there were an average of 20.68 random numbers per application. Subtract one and take the square root and you get an average of 4.55 bonus points. You can look at all the published data and check that easily enough, but it would take a while. 28,177 tags and only 8391 applicants? What are all these tags for and where are the leftovers? I think I’m missing something, or some of the information here is incorrect.

Either way, if the 6,609,763 numbers for 319,616 applications is correct, then someone entering the draw today, would on average have about 1/20.68 the probability of drawing a tag that the average applicant in NV has. If the number applicants did not change, and the distribution did not change(because a lot of high point holders died, and a lot people with 1-2pts dropped out next year) then you could reach the average in just five years....and still have pretty low odds. Unfortunately it doesn’t work that way, and you don’t get to climb the ladder like that. Looking at a single non-res elk tag, there were 87 applicants with zero points and 67 with one point. That means last year there were 87 numbers for new applicants and 134 numbers for apps with one point. Next year that would most likely become 174/4556!!! Under a non-squared system it would have been 174/261. Not only that, but for that tag there was one non-res with 20 points. That means his name was in the hat 401 times. All the first year, second year, and third year applicants combined(191 people) had 406 random numbers. There were 301 applicants for five tags. In a random system that’s 1.67% draw odds. Points can’t fix that. There are enough tags to let each of those applicants hunt once every sixty years. You could make it once in a lifetime and peel 20-40 people out of that, but there were 87 new applicants, so the problem will continue to compound.
 
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BrokenArrow

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SW CO
Hey Bill,
I agree with you. I’m sure there is an explanation beyond what they projected on the computer screen and displayed to the general public. So, In a couple of hours, I will get to work and screen shot what they did display.
Then let’s huddle and see what we can come up with.
Thanks for work in this and chiming in. I figured you would after the April statistics thread.
 

ImBillT

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Oct 29, 2018
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614
Hey Bill,
I agree with you. I’m sure there is an explanation beyond what they projected on the computer screen and displayed to the general public. So, In a couple of hours, I will get to work and screen shot what they did display.
Then let’s huddle and see what we can come up with.
Thanks for work in this and chiming in. I figured you would after the April statistics thread.
I don’t really care to dig any deeper. It kept me mentally stimulated through breakfast. The elk draw odds aren’t good enough to get me in NV in my current life position. If there’s something fishy I’ll let someone whose actually applying there worry about it.
 
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BrokenArrow

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I don’t really care to dig any deeper. It kept me mentally stimulated through breakfast. The elk draw odds aren’t good enough to get me in NV in my current life position. If there’s something fishy I’ll let someone whose actually applying there worry about it.
Copy that.
I did really enjoy the April thread. It was eye opening
 

BrokenArrow

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SW CO
S
One thing I did notice was that the one screen shot of their computer stated that 8391 unique applicants generated approx 319,616 individual/party applications and 6,609,763 unique random numbers. 28,177 total tags available. Yikes.
SO, a point of clarification. I missed one thing = 8391 was the initial sum of unique applicants once the draw program started. That number increased throughout the data collection and processing phase. When the process was completed it finalized at 245,551. I mistook what the gentleman said in the beginning stream, sorry for that.

I am assuming entries generated includes: all applicants, all species applied, all choices per species, all points squared per species, and all silver state choices, and then all folks just applying for points? Did I miss something?
Without knowing peoples points going into the draw, who actually applied for hunts and not just points, and who jumped in after accumulating points for years, silver state chances, etc... it's really hard to determine parameters until the statistics come out.

I know people care about this stuff, so that's why I mentioned this stuff in the first place.
I just found all this interesting because of the total random numbers assigned.
Has this total increased from last year? Better hunter recruitment for many reasons? More out-of-state interest in Nevada? Does this equal more money for wildlife efforts in NV? On and on...


106829

And then, when processing was complete, this is where it all landed.
106830

I'll shut up now and wait for tomorrow.
 

ImBillT

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Messages
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BrokenArrow - that makes the numbers work out more reasonably. It seems like most people applied for 1-2 tags instead of 38, and it explains the scarcity. About one tag per ten applicants.

Also, the one tag per sixty applicants I mentioned earlier paints a darker picture than reality. It doesn’t account for having five choices, which should bring that number down around fifty-sixish. Then of course other units have different odds. Then there’s attrition. One time when I spent quite a few hours weighing it out I decided that there was reasonable probability to draw a good rifle elk tag once in 20-30 years.
 
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