Montana General Deer vs Permit Applications

It seems dumber than hell to me the 25% random draw is ONLY for someone who has not purchased a preference point. If number of applicants continues to increase this could really screw folks with one point.
If I recall correctly that language carries over from back in the day when you could buy a point only and before we had the later point purchase period that I think came into place in 2019. As a result, prior to that time it was referring to people who had done the "point only" purchase at the time of their application, as they were not included in the draw.

And even with that language being how it is, they will tell you that "applicants who have not purchased any preference points" only applies to that year, not to any past years. That is how it was explained to me when I asked. So, if you have points, say 1 point, but you did not buy a point only option this year, you are still in the 25% pool, as you would be an "applicants who have not purchased any preference points."

They walked me through how the 2020 draw was conducted. See the chart below. Their numbers, not mine.

Anyone who didn't draw in the 75% and didn't select "point only" was in the draw for the other 25%. Even if they had 1 point from the year before.

When you add the Big Game Combo and Elk Combo, the cap is 17,000. We issued 16,999 that year (12,843 + 4,156). The random 25% portion of the 17,000 is 4,250.

If the 25% (4,250) was allocated only to those with zero points, the draw rate of those zero point holders would have been much higher, as shown in the chart. We only issued 3,497 (2,395 +1,102) of those 4,250 to zero point holders. Yet, we had more zero point holders than the 3,497 issued. We had 5,338 (3,660 +1,678) zero point holders. Using the methodology that is being stated by some, we would have had the entire 25% random pool of 4,250 tags allocated to zero point holders.

That isn't how they did the 2020 draw. We only issued 3,497 of the 4,250 to the zero point holders. So, either FWP continues to do it the same way they did pre-2019, or 753 (4,250-3,497) people at zero points should have received a 2020 elk/elk-deer tag and did not.

If they had done it the way some are stating and the zero point holders got the entire 25% random pool, draw odds for zero point holders would have been 4,250/(3,660+1,678) = 79.6%. In actual numbers, the draw rate for zero point holders was about 65%, which is close to what it was in the one-point pool.

Screen Shot 2021-07-03 at 11.21.08 AM.png

When the legislature starts messing with things, you have bill writers who don't understand the complications wording changes can have. From my understanding they should have clarified that language to reflect that now we have a later point purchase period.

I would suggest calling FWP licensing office in Helena if you want further explanation. If they are doing it wrong after the change of the statute in 2019, let them know. The 2020 results show it is not being done with the 25% random being allocated only to the zero point holders. If it was done only to the zero point pool, they would have received another 753 tags to get to the 25% random total of 4,250.

I agree with @JLS, it would be ridiculously punitive to the sandwich point holders who are above zero and below the point break of the 75%. I suspect FWP knows that would be a problem also and they are using their definition of who is "applicants who have not purchased any preference points."

I don't have any skin in the game. I'm a resident. I don't really care how they do it or what interpretation they use for "applicants who have not purchased any preference points." When I was preparing for my podcast with MOGA this spring I got these numbers from FWP and I talked to them so I would understand how the 25% was being done.

Anyone who wants to get worked up over it should call FWP and find out how they are doing it. Hopefully you get the same person I talked to. If they are doing it wrong and you are impacted, proceed as you find necessary.

Carry on ........
 
Appears as though Huntin' Fool has been told the same thing by FWP. In their 2021 March edition, here is how they explain the PP portion of the draw in their magazine. Neither HF or I are the final authority, but the draw results show this is how the 25% random portion is being conducted.

Screen Shot 2021-07-03 at 11.56.34 AM.png
 
@Big Fin, if that’s the case that would certainly make more sense. The statue makes no distinction as to WHEN one purchased the point(s). Maybe FWP and the legislature should figure out what the he’ll the intent of the law was and decide that words do indeed matter. Right now they appear to be in violation of law if they are allowing anyone with PP in the random draw.

02A05A75-13B5-46AB-B4C4-6F02B5EBD490.jpeg
 
If I recall correctly that language carries over from back in the day when you could buy a point only and before we had the later point purchase period that I think came into place in 2019. As a result, prior to that time it was referring to people who had done the "point only" purchase at the time of their application, as they were not included in the draw.

And even with that language being how it is, they will tell you that "applicants who have not purchased any preference points" only applies to that year, not to any past years. That is how it was explained to me when I asked. So, if you have points, say 1 point, but you did not buy a point only option this year, you are still in the 25% pool, as you would be an "applicants who have not purchased any preference points."

They walked me through how the 2020 draw was conducted. See the chart below. Their numbers, not mine.

Anyone who didn't draw in the 75% and didn't select "point only" was in the draw for the other 25%. Even if they had 1 point from the year before.

When you add the Big Game Combo and Elk Combo, the cap is 17,000. We issued 16,999 that year (12,843 + 4,156). The random 25% portion of the 17,000 is 4,250.

If the 25% (4,250) was allocated only to those with zero points, the draw rate of those zero point holders would have been much higher, as shown in the chart. We only issued 3,497 (2,395 +1,102) of those 4,250 to zero point holders. Yet, we had more zero point holders than the 3,497 issued. We had 5,338 (3,660 +1,678) zero point holders. Using the methodology that is being stated by some, we would have had the entire 25% random pool of 4,250 tags allocated to zero point holders.

That isn't how they did the 2020 draw. We only issued 3,497 of the 4,250 to the zero point holders. So, either FWP continues to do it the same way they did pre-2019, or 753 (4,250-3,497) people at zero points should have received a 2020 elk/elk-deer tag and did not.

If they had done it the way some are stating and the zero point holders got the entire 25% random pool, draw odds for zero point holders would have been 4,250/(3,660+1,678) = 79.6%. In actual numbers, the draw rate for zero point holders was about 65%, which is close to what it was in the one-point pool.

View attachment 187304

When the legislature starts messing with things, you have bill writers who don't understand the complications wording changes can have. From my understanding they should have clarified that language to reflect that now we have a later point purchase period.

I would suggest calling FWP licensing office in Helena if you want further explanation. If they are doing it wrong after the change of the statute in 2019, let them know. The 2020 results show it is not being done with the 25% random being allocated only to the zero point holders. If it was done only to the zero point pool, they would have received another 753 tags to get to the 25% random total of 4,250.

I agree with @JLS, it would be ridiculously punitive to the sandwich point holders who are above zero and below the point break of the 75%. I suspect FWP knows that would be a problem also and they are using their definition of who is "applicants who have not purchased any preference points."

I don't have any skin in the game. I'm a resident. I don't really care how they do it or what interpretation they use for "applicants who have not purchased any preference points." When I was preparing for my podcast with MOGA this spring I got these numbers from FWP and I talked to them so I would understand how the 25% was being done.

Anyone who wants to get worked up over it should call FWP and find out how they are doing it. Hopefully you get the same person I talked to. If they are doing it wrong and you are impacted, proceed as you find necessary.

Carry on ........
😂😂😂. Leave it to any political entity to make things overly confusing. I did the same math you just very thoroughly explained and came up with the same conclusions. Thanks again for taking the time to help clarify things. Definitely not worked up over it by any means. Just confused. Haha. And I’m intently trying to learn these systems.
 
If I recall correctly that language carries over from back in the day when you could buy a point only and before we had the later point purchase period that I think came into place in 2019. As a result, prior to that time it was referring to people who had done the "point only" purchase at the time of their application, as they were not included in the draw.

And even with that language being how it is, they will tell you that "applicants who have not purchased any preference points" only applies to that year, not to any past years. That is how it was explained to me when I asked. So, if you have points, say 1 point, but you did not buy a point only option this year, you are still in the 25% pool, as you would be an "applicants who have not purchased any preference points."

They walked me through how the 2020 draw was conducted. See the chart below. Their numbers, not mine.

Anyone who didn't draw in the 75% and didn't select "point only" was in the draw for the other 25%. Even if they had 1 point from the year before.

When you add the Big Game Combo and Elk Combo, the cap is 17,000. We issued 16,999 that year (12,843 + 4,156). The random 25% portion of the 17,000 is 4,250.

If the 25% (4,250) was allocated only to those with zero points, the draw rate of those zero point holders would have been much higher, as shown in the chart. We only issued 3,497 (2,395 +1,102) of those 4,250 to zero point holders. Yet, we had more zero point holders than the 3,497 issued. We had 5,338 (3,660 +1,678) zero point holders. Using the methodology that is being stated by some, we would have had the entire 25% random pool of 4,250 tags allocated to zero point holders.

That isn't how they did the 2020 draw. We only issued 3,497 of the 4,250 to the zero point holders. So, either FWP continues to do it the same way they did pre-2019, or 753 (4,250-3,497) people at zero points should have received a 2020 elk/elk-deer tag and did not.

If they had done it the way some are stating and the zero point holders got the entire 25% random pool, draw odds for zero point holders would have been 4,250/(3,660+1,678) = 79.6%. In actual numbers, the draw rate for zero point holders was about 65%, which is close to what it was in the one-point pool.

View attachment 187304

When the legislature starts messing with things, you have bill writers who don't understand the complications wording changes can have. From my understanding they should have clarified that language to reflect that now we have a later point purchase period.

I would suggest calling FWP licensing office in Helena if you want further explanation. If they are doing it wrong after the change of the statute in 2019, let them know. The 2020 results show it is not being done with the 25% random being allocated only to the zero point holders. If it was done only to the zero point pool, they would have received another 753 tags to get to the 25% random total of 4,250.

I agree with @JLS, it would be ridiculously punitive to the sandwich point holders who are above zero and below the point break of the 75%. I suspect FWP knows that would be a problem also and they are using their definition of who is "applicants who have not purchased any preference points."

I don't have any skin in the game. I'm a resident. I don't really care how they do it or what interpretation they use for "applicants who have not purchased any preference points." When I was preparing for my podcast with MOGA this spring I got these numbers from FWP and I talked to them so I would understand how the 25% was being done.

Anyone who wants to get worked up over it should call FWP and find out how they are doing it. Hopefully you get the same person I talked to. If they are doing it wrong and you are impacted, proceed as you find necessary.

Carry on ........
Thanks for taking the time on this one - HAppy 4TH to all !
 
I do know 240 is a bitch to hunt though. Glad that member got his tag, but he better bring his A game. mtmuley
@mtmuley 240 caught my eye, is it a bitch due to the rough country? Or deer numbers right down? I assume it’s less crowded than general due to being a draw (for the tag that ends Nov 14)
 
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