LO Battle Ahead?

[Buschy]

You can hunt wyoming every year if you put in a little effort. I could easily have a bull elk tag every year if I didn't live in a western state its not as easy as it was 5 years ago but you guys complaining because you cant hunt the state of your choice on the drop of a hat is funny.

I couldn’t agree more. I have said for a long time there is way more opportunity for tags and hunts in the West than I have time for. Just takes research and work.

 

[Matthew57]

More people get involved when it affects them personally. Like it or not, if a guy can only hunt wyoming once every 6-10 years, do you think they'll put much effort into access? Now what if they were hunting it every couple of years? I bet more would be inclined to help.

I could direct my money and efforts to access initiatives in states that have potential to impact me every year or two. Access is gained with popularity. More hunters leads to more effort being put towards access opportunities and conservation. "the best conservationists are hunters"

How exactly has more hunters led to more access?

 

[WapitiBob]

How exactly has more hunters led to more access?

More hunters and social media just might save the access we currently have.

 

[Matthew57]

More hunters and social media just might save the access we currently have.

I hope that’s true. The insinuation of the post is if you can’t get a tag every year then who cares. A lot of the non hunting public could save it as well.

 

[Archer86]

I hope that’s true. The insinuation of the post is if you can’t get a tag every year then who cares. A lot of the non hunting public could save it as well.

Thats a more likely option non hunting public has to speak up along with hunters or it doesn't matter. Hunters are a small group of public land users compared to the rest.

 

[Mallardsx2]

Some quick math:
Wyoming 2025 elk application cost me $2014.13
$1950 that was held for about 4 months. My high interest savings account pays roughly 1.5% monthly = $1950 * 1.5/12 compounded = $9.77 lost interest.
2025 Elk PP cost = $53.30
Total 2025 out of pocket cost for a roughly 1/20 chance at an elk tag = $127.20.

Lets say this same hunt takes 12 points to draw by the time you do this for 12 years to earn 12 years of points which would mean applying for 13 years.
12 years of applying and failing = $127.20 * 12 = $1526.40.
13th year, $2014.13 app cost and securing the tag.
Total elk tag cost assuming by a miracle none of these prices increase over 13 years = $1526.40 + $2014.13 = $3540.53

That sure is an expensive elk tag for a slightly above average unit. The unit I referenced above in NM has had about a 1/20 chance to draw the tag the last few years. $4k is about the going rate - not the inflated huge money maker that everyone is making these tags out to be.

I like this example.

And you’re not even taking into account the increase in fees over the 12 years… You’re going to be more like $6000-7,000 in 12 years.

 

[Forkyfinder]

I like this example.

And you’re not even taking into account the increase in fees over the 12 years… You’re going to be more like $6000-7,000 in 12 years.

Some quick math:
Wyoming 2025 elk application cost me $2014.13
$1950 that was held for about 4 months. My high interest savings account pays roughly 1.5% monthly = $1950 * 1.5/12 compounded = $9.77 lost interest.
2025 Elk PP cost = $53.30
Total 2025 out of pocket cost for a roughly 1/20 chance at an elk tag = $127.20.

Lets say this same hunt takes 12 points to draw by the time you do this for 12 years to earn 12 years of points which would mean applying for 13 years.
12 years of applying and failing = $127.20 * 12 = $1526.40.
13th year, $2014.13 app cost and securing the tag.
Total elk tag cost assuming by a miracle none of these prices increase over 13 years = $1526.40 + $2014.13 = $3540.53

That sure is an expensive elk tag for a slightly above average unit. The unit I referenced above in NM has had about a 1/20 chance to draw the tag the last few years. $4k is about the going rate - not the inflated huge money maker that everyone is making these tags out to be.

The "quick math" doesnt include time/value. Or otherwise known as - the relevant math.

3500 over 13 years isnt a lot compared to 4000 this year - especially when the major portion of the cost is the license in year 13. Net present value im sure the 4k one is a lot better than you are showing.

If you think this is the same - glad to pay out 4000 over 13 years and take 4000 from one of you math experts today.

Also doesnt include inflation... And before the whining about NR increases commences, what do you thinks gone up more in the last 15 years - outfitting fees or game and fish permit costs?

 

[Mallardsx2]

The "quick math" doesnt include time/value. Or otherwise known as - the relevant math.

I think he was trying to just keep it simple for people like yourself.

 

[seeth07]

The "quick math" doesnt include time/value. Or otherwise known as - the relevant math.

3500 over 13 years isnt a lot compared to 4000 this year - especially when the major portion of the cost is the license in year 13. Net present value im sure the 4k one is a lot better than you are showing.

If you think this is the same - glad to pay out 4000 over 13 years and take 4000 from one of you math experts today.

Also doesnt include inflation... And before the whining about NR increases commences, what do you thinks gone up more in the last 15 years - outfitting fees or game and fish permit costs?

There is a lot of doesn't take into account. Point was just a quick visualization of what the cost really looks like for any elk tag today

 

[Forkyfinder]

There is a lot of doesn't take into account. Point was just a quick visualization of what the cost really looks like for any elk tag today

No - your point, as is the other 2 hters who perpetually argue this, is that game agencies are charging as much as the transferable tags. It isnt true. At least if youve got enough firing cells to see it.

Its a complete and total fantasy land - looking at the highest cost state and a very desirable LE permit and comparing it to a very low end eplus tag isnt a real great basis for comparision.

Everytime one of you whines about the cost (yet pays for a mountain of states) - it makes it easy to not care. Perhaps thats how we got here.

 

[Forkyfinder]

I think he was trying to just keep it simple for people like yourself.

Ironically - simplifying it past the point of useful is only even mildly interesting if you are "simple" or stupid.

 

[Mallardsx2]

Ironically - simplifying it past the point of useful is only even mildly interesting if you are "simple" or stupid.

You check all the boxes.

 

[Lostinthewoods]

Maybe we can keep having the same convo without the need to talk about people's IQ or intellect?

 

[Forkyfinder]

Maybe we can keep having the same convo without the need to talk about people's IQ or intellect?

My bad. Ill own this thread derail.

The point remains. Im tired of some whiner doing a bad version of mathematical gymnastics to justify land owner tags. Those tags are a raw deal - even compared to one of the best states with a prestigous unit permit. Anyone who states otherwise clearly needs help investing.

Ive seen that nonsense touted around as fact for too long.

 

[Forkyfinder]

You check all the boxes.

So have you bought one?

 

[seeth07]

Its a complete and total fantasy land - looking at the highest cost state and a very desirable LE permit and comparing it to a very low end eplus tag isnt a real great basis for comparision.

No it's not fantasy land - its simple economics and mathematics.

First off, it is getting close to the same amount, not quite the same amount which should be scary to everyone and is the main driver for my argument.

Lets do apples to apples then if you want.

NM annual non-refundable portion of the high quality elk draw is $82. They only hold onto the up front tag cost for about 2 months and its only about $2 in interest lost so lets just ignore that.

The unit I'm going to use is the one in my example - the tag I drew and then had the opportunity to buy a voucher for. In 2024, 6 NR drew this tag which was the allotted NR cap and there were 200 first choice applicants. Sorry @Forkyfinder but I'm not quite so sure I'd call this a "very low end eplus tag" with only 6/200 draw odds. You can also go read my hunt recap if you want to see how great that elk hunt was.

At a 3% chance, the average person will take 34 years to get this tag. $82 x 34 years = $2788. Not quite the $3800 but its approaching and getting alarmingly close. I say this because all it takes is for that $82 application (which is honestly I think the lowest state out there to apply for elk?) to rise up to $112/year and it would match.

EDIT: Technically the draw odds may actually be worse as NM looks at 2nd and 3rd choices first. So at best, its 6/200 assuming that no 2nd or thirds are used when the first 1st choice apps are drawn.

 

[Forkyfinder]

No it's not fantasy land - its simple economics and mathematics.

First off, it is getting close to the same amount, not quite the same amount which should be scary to everyone and is the main driver for my argument.

Lets do apples to apples then if you want.

NM annual non-refundable portion of the high quality elk draw is $82. They only hold onto the up front tag cost for about 2 months and its only about $2 in interest lost so lets just ignore that.

The unit I'm going to use is the one in my example - the tag I drew and then had the opportunity to buy a voucher for. In 2024, 6 NR drew this tag which was the allotted NR cap and there were 200 first choice applicants. Sorry @Forkyfinder but I'm not quite so sure I'd call this a "very low end eplus tag" with only 6/200 draw odds. You can also go read my hunt recap if you want to see how great that elk hunt was.

At a 3% chance, the average person will take 34 years to get this tag. $82 x 34 years = $2788. Not quite the $3800 but its approaching and getting alarmingly close. I say this because all it takes is for that $82 application (which is honestly I think the lowest state out there to apply for elk?) to rise up to $112/year and it would match.

Again. Youre missing time value money.

 

[Lostinthewoods]

My bad. Ill own this thread derail.

The point remains. Im tired of some whiner doing a bad version of mathematical gymnastics to justify land owner tags. Those tags are a raw deal - even compared to one of the best states with a prestigous unit permit. Anyone who states otherwise clearly needs help investing.

Ive seen that nonsense touted around as fact for too long.

No worries at all. Lots of strong opinions in here, some good data, and it's been a pretty good convo so far.
I just don't want it going from people talking about eachother's IQs to other posters mothers...

 

[Bighorner]

More people get involved when it affects them personally. Like it or not, if a guy can only hunt wyoming once every 6-10 years, do you think they'll put much effort into access? Now what if they were hunting it every couple of years? I bet more would be inclined to help.

I could direct my money and efforts to access initiatives in states that have potential to impact me every year or two. Access is gained with popularity. More hunters leads to more effort being put towards access opportunities and conservation. "the best conservationists are hunters"

This is also a pretty speculative statement. Wyoming changes it's state statues and you might donate some unspecified amount of money or time on access until something else peaks your fancy. If you are not currently contacting your elected officials over the federal land sell off threat, I don't thing LO tags in Wyoming is going to help someone get off their butt for thr greater good. (If you are tuned into this I'm sure you are tuned in and active there too.)

What I have seen is the exact opposite. Access is reduced by popularity. As popularity increases there are more people ready to out dollars up to jump to the head of the line (pretty much the topic of this threas) rather than put in time and hours to the greater good.

I can completely see your point of view. But having watched access be eroded by pay to play over the past 20 years i can't take your statement very seriously.

 

[seeth07]

Again. Youre missing time value money.

Yes but so is inflation. So is price increases. So is tag allocation changes.