Im bowing out

[TN2shot07]

The "we are running out of resources" angle to population was pushed in the 70's and none of the predictions have come true. In fact, most projections have the human population dropping in the future - something that is likely to create significant economic, social and political challenges we haven't faced in centuries.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist that thinks we’re on the edge of running out. I was coming from the point that there is a finite amount and we are using it. Fields and woodlands becoming strip malls and subdivisions are way more concerning to me. I’m only in my 30s and have seen a lot disappear and I don’t think it goes the other way very often

 

[VikingsGuy]

I’m not a conspiracy theorist that thinks we’re on the edge of running out. I was coming from the point that there is a finite amount and we are using it. Fields and woodlands becoming strip malls and subdivisions are way more concerning to me. I’m only in my 30s and have seen a lot disappear and I don’t think it goes the other way very often

I was not suggesting a conspiracy theory. It was the mainstream academic concern of that time. As for running out of space - if you look at US population density we aren't even in the same ballpark/area code of too high. I get it, from a personal level if that if you used to enjoy a particular rural area close to a growing city and now there is creeping development into that green space that may be a bummer, but it is no way is it an issue that needs families to alter their wishes for number of kids due to overpopulation - just not an issue in 2022.

 

[TN2shot07]

I was not suggesting a conspiracy theory. It was the mainstream academic concern of that time. As for running out of space - if you look at US population density we aren't even in the same ballpark/area code of too high. I get it, from a personal level if that if you used to enjoy a particular rural area close to a growing city and now there is creeping development into that green space that may be a bummer, but it is no way is it an issue that needs families to alter their wishes for number of kids due to overpopulation - just not an issue in 2022.

The question is do we want to get near that population density number before we start addressing it? That seems like people who drive until the gas light is on before looking around for a gas station…

 

[VikingsGuy]

The question is do we want to get near that population density number before we start addressing it? That seems like people who drive until the gas light is on before looking around for a gas station…

My point is we are nowhere near that number and no one with expertise in the field has us on a population growth path even close to that number. To use your metaphor, the tank is full, the jerry cans are full, and we are on a highway with gas stations every 20 miles - no reason to worry about the gas gauge. In my opinion, on a list of 100 challenges in the US right now, excess population growth is about 98th. YMMV.

 

[westbranch]

Double wide?

The finest of double wides.

 

[Irrelevant]

The "we are running out of resources" angle to population was pushed in the 70's and none of the predictions have come true.

If buildable private land is a resource, then that is not true. It is definitely running out, and it is one of the driving forces behind the housing crunch in the west.

 

[VikingsGuy]

If buildable private land is a resource, then that is not true. It is definitely running out, and it is one of the driving forces behind the housing crunch in the west.

I am speaking in general, I am sure nitch locations have reached peak density.

If folks want 40-acre ranchettes some areas may seem tight, but at a traditional housing density it is not even close to max. The housing crunch has much more to do with zoning, permitting, environmental, large landholdings, construction labor, etc. Heck, just allowing duplexes in areas zoned for single-family would add housing opportunities far outstripping any population growth we can imagine.

 

[SAJ-99]

Ugh. Still no inventory. Considering there are like 1.4m realtors, you would think the commission charges would be more negotiable.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Ugh. Still no inventory. Considering there are like 1.4m realtors, you would think the commission charges would be more negotiable.

View attachment 215570

Times of uncertainty highlight that much of the US housing market is driven by folks already in a home just swapping up or swapping down. We can feel good about a "hot market" even though that market actually adds few new homes and few new/first-time owners. Housing markets seems great and we miss that we have too little new construction (especially in the sub $350,000 market) to account for new owners because all the realtors and bankers are busy - but they are just busy shuffling around the deck chairs. And it really shows up when the current owners stand pat for a few years during uncertainty.

In my opinion, we need significant zoning, permitting, and coding changes to re-open the market to more sub-$350,000 housing options for the next generation of first-time buyers.

There are some good articles out there (no links handy at the moment, but I trust you can google without assistance) about the costs of zoning, permitting, and code changes in home building (as well as NIMBY issues) that are driving out entry level housing in America - especially in Blue states. One example, a builder in MN was going to build several hundred affordable new houses that would have sold in the mid-$200,000s. But progressive politicians would not approve the building plan if the buildings weren't certified LEED to a very high level under their publically stated view that climate change is the number one issue for the working poor/lower middle class. The builder said that the rules would add $40,000 to each house cost and as such the final sales prices would be outside the allowable targets for some govt program that was making this development viable so they were canceling the project. A new developer is now targeting the spot for a bunch of McMansions where well-off purchasers will be happing to add a $100K to the price to feel good about LEED. Well done MN.

 

[Irrelevant]

Ugh. Still no inventory. Considering there are like 1.4m realtors, you would think the commission charges would be more negotiable.

View attachment 215570

Actually my buddy said he signed up for a service that actively markets your home sale to licensed realtors to then bid on the opportunity to sell your home. Not just commission rates but marketing, cleaning, setup, etc. I was shocked when he told me the package some were offering.

 

[hank4elk]

Trumps book keepers just appraised my place,online.
I'm worth millions I tell you. This is not a singlewide,it's a destination retirement.

 

[BigHornRam]

Homebuilders' sales expectations drop dramatically, as mortgage rates soar

Rising mortgage rates are starting to take their toll on homebuilder confidence, especially sales expectations.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Nick87]

The last three weeks I've seen more houses come up for sale than I did probably all last summer here. Not that there any cheaper but at least it's a start of at least having more than one house to knife fight other potential buyers in the driveway for.

 

[Letthemgrow]

Based on the way we are continuing to use resources, watching land disappear to development, and where the world in general is headed limiting how many children you have may not be the worst thought ever.

Isn't it odd that you have to pass a test to drive a vehicle but breeding is open season to anyone?

Would it be better if you had to pass a basic common sense and math test before your ovaries and testes worked?

 

[Nick87]

Isn't it odd that you have to pass a test to drive a vehicle but breeding is open season to anyone?

Would it be better if you had to pass a basic common sense and math test before your ovaries and testes worked?

Is the government going to be in charge of this "common sense" test?

 

[TN2shot07]

Isn't it odd that you have to pass a test to drive a vehicle but breeding is open season to anyone?

Would it be better if you had to pass a basic common sense and math test before your ovaries and testes worked?

My wife is a teacher, I’m 100% confident there should be a test…

 

[VikingsGuy]

Is the government going to be in charge of this "common sense" test?

Yup. Seems to be a key feature in most dystopian novels - wonder why?

 

[Don Fischer]

Double wide here in Antelope just sold for over $200k! Over 30 miles from here to any services! Food, gas, medical ect!

 

[hank4elk]

Is the government going to be in charge of this "common sense" test?

no,some wise ass like you will get the "contract"...lol

 

[Nick87]

no,some wise ass like you will get the "contract"...lol

In that case Hank I say bring it on. In all seriousness though I've said for years there's so many people who just shouldn't reproduce. I liked it better back when if you were that dumb you starved to death much cleaner gene pool.