Idaho owes me...

the nikster

the nikster

Well-known member
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
1,550
Location
Alaska
Nothing.
I have been applying for 3 species most years since the draw system started. I have not drawn a limited permit since 1991. But I have no sour grapes because...
My wife has drawn 2 bull elk tags and an antelope tag and my daughter has drawn a bull moose and a bull elk tag recently.
If Idaho went to a points system I might have drawn by now but they would not have and would have been discouraged long before they accumulated enough point to draw as they have done. I am alright with that.
It sucks that my brother, nephew and wife have each drawn 2 bull tags while I have none, but I have been apart of taking 6 bulls recently and you can't beat that with a stick.
The look on their face when you tell them to pass on a 6 x 6 bull because it is too small is priceless.
 
I put in for hunts with gpod odds. Sometimes I still don't draw. This winter I get to hunt with my son. In the end, it works how it's supposed to.
 
I hear a lot of complaints this time of year it's always the same thing
"I never draw"

Me, "you had that unit 40 tag 5 years ago?"

" Yeah 5 years ago"

Me, "well what are you putting in for now?"

"40 deer"

Me, "you do realise that it has 4% odds of drawing"

"Yeah we need a points system"

Me, " well the law of averages says you should draw that tag about every 25 year and a preference point system is going to take at least 25 or more so for the next 20 years you are one of the lucky ones who drew a tag! You should be happy that we don't have a point system or you would be years behind the rest of us at this point in time."

5 min later I over hear him complaining to someone else who raises their voce in agreement.

Math is hard.
 
I'd like to see Montana get on track and make moose, sheep, and goat ONCE IN A LIFETIME TAGS! No-one truly deserves to kill more than one of these fabulous animals and it would give more folks like you and me a chance to get drawn. No it will not be a large change in the odds, but I'm sure tired of hearing every year about someone else who has now drawn their second moose, sheep, or goat tag.

David
 
I get a bit bent when my family gets another tag and I get skunked, but eventually I get over it and get to planning the hunt. I agree that moose, sheep and goat should be OIL. But I don't live in Montana so they tend to ignore me.
Preference points, to me, are a Ponzi. If you got in at the start you can benefit but in the long run, only the managers of the scheme benefit. It seems to work for some, bless them. I don't want to see it here.
But dang it would be nice to pull a tag. My family and friends ask me when was the last time I actually took an elk, I reply, a lifetime if you are under 20.
 
I put in for Deer, Elk, and Pronghorn for 13 years and never drew. Drew a Moose on year 3 and a sheep tag 1st year. Random draw has it's advantages but some disadvantages as well. Take for instance my moose hunt. I drew the tag at 3 years which was great. My buddy drew it after 26 years (same unit.) And the same unit took 35 years for another friend to draw. 35 years in an average 1 in 8 odds hunt. Talk about disappointment. I wish Idaho would go to a combination system. Say a 25% point and 75% random. Draw the randoms first and then the points to the unlucky people. So your random odds would go from 1 in 8 to 1 in 10. However, at 10 years of not drawing you would have enough points to start leading the pack in the point system and draw a tag eventually hence eliminating the "unfair" 35 year wait for a 1 in 8 odds moose hunt. It would equal things out on the draws. The fortunate would still have a reasonable chance at drawing early but the less fortunate would draw eventually.
 
Firedude said:
I put in for Deer, Elk, and Pronghorn for 13 years and never drew. Drew a Moose on year 3 and a sheep tag 1st year. Random draw has it's advantages but some disadvantages as well. Take for instance my moose hunt. I drew the tag at 3 years which was great. My buddy drew it after 26 years (same unit.) And the same unit took 35 years for another friend to draw. 35 years in an average 1 in 8 odds hunt. Talk about disappointment. I wish Idaho would go to a combination system. Say a 25% point and 75% random. Draw the randoms first and then the points to the unlucky people. So your random odds would go from 1 in 8 to 1 in 10. However, at 10 years of not drawing you would have enough points to start leading the pack in the point system and draw a tag eventually hence eliminating the "unfair" 35 year wait for a 1 in 8 odds moose hunt. It would equal things out on the draws. The fortunate would still have a reasonable chance at drawing early but the less fortunate would draw eventually.
Click to expand...


Math is hard. You just made both systems draw odds worse.
 
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The lack of a point system is one major reason I'm trying to get my wife to move to Idaho. She's still set on MT......coming from CT I'm pretty sure I'll be happy either way lol.
 
I hear a lot of people claiming that they have applied for 20 or more years and never drawn a tag. Sometimes they are talking about a specific tag sometimes its any tag at all. If I dig into it I usually find out one of two things either, 1)They are applying for tags with 5% or less odds or 2) They applied for some hard to get tags for a few years got discouraged didn't apply for a few years then tried again and didn't draw so they were disinterested for the next few years so that by the time they've applied for ## years and not drawn a tag they've only actually applied for about half of those years.
 
What I find is that most the guys complaining of not drawing tags apply for the hardest to draw tags in the state they live in.

Pretty tough to beat horrible draw odds when you only apply for one state and then to top it off, the toughest draw odds.

The way you "win" the tag draw game is:

1. Apply smartly and not chase the best units.
2. Apply in as many States as you can afford.
3. Make the tag application game a marathon, not a sprint.
4. Be content to hunt OTC or very easy to draw tags in some states.
5. Avoid having to draw for some species if you can buy a hunt somewhere.
6. Stay the course on whatever you decide to do.

Finally, my advice to a young hunter that is really into hunting and wants to hunt sheep, moose, goat, trophy elk, deer, etc...go to college and get a high paying job.

Money eliminates the need to wait in line, play stupid preference/bonus point games, filling out applications for decades, and not being forced to hunt anything but the very best units. The Western States, via the outfitter lobby, have made sure that the well-heeled hunters don't have to wait in line.

Its that simple.
 
A few weeks ago I had a conversation with a co-worker and he mentioned that he doesn't know anyone that drew Wyoming deer this year and we should go to a point system for Non Residents.

I asked if he knew that 3,000 people applied for the 140 permits and with a look of shock and bewilderment he said "Really, that many people?"

The automatic go to for non drawing a tag is to change the system.

If you are looking at units with draw probabilities that are <10%, a point system wont fix the supply and demand issue.

If you are looking at units with draw probabilities that are >25% a point system can fix the supply and demand issue.

If you are looking at units with draw probabilities that are 10-25% you are in the abyss and neither system is great with the supply and demand issue.

If I could change one thing about the Idaho Draw to make it better, it would be to separate the NR/R applications rather than an up to 10%.

I will agree with Buzz that getting a high paying job will give you access to all sorts of the hunting opportunities, by jumping to the head of the line.

I think college may not be the option for everyone.

Many friends have went down the rabbit hole of degrees that are not too marketable in the job field.

Working at Smiths grocery during college and working at Smiths grocery after college living with the parents to pay off the student loans.

I was fortunate to go a different route, but I can see that the college is the way to get a lot of money can be flawed depending on your major.

I think that skilled professionals should be an option that some folks should look into.

There are jobs out there that pay more per year, than most jobs coming out of college.

You can make a lot of money without going into debt with the hope of a return on your investment.

The skilled professionals that work at my job work a schedule that gives them one entire week off a month and with overtime make more than I do.

You could do a lot of hunting with an additional week in September, October, November, and December without using any paid time off.

It is just something to consider, college isn't a catch all to make good money.
 
...on the issue of jobs and hunting.

For things like (some) landowner tags for deer, elk, pronghorn you can dabble in those with a decent paying job.

If you really want to cut to the head of the line for the top hunting by purchasing commission, governors tags, and pay for access to the best places, etc...you really need "f-you" type of money.

Montana sheep tag...300,000K, WY sheep tags around 70K, WY moose tags 25-30K,...you get the picture.

Lawyer, dentist, doctor....
 
Ah yes as soon as any sort or form of a points system heads explode. Math is not hard however figuring odds on a unknown, mystical, system can become a lot of guesswork sounding like proven mathematical theorems. The law of averages is a misnomer. It's not a "law". More of a, "well generally speaking we have a theory based on past results you may most likely probably potentially have this outcome because of things typically evening out over the course of time..." Meaning no matter how you spin it, luck or the lack thereof is still a factor.

As I mentioned I like the random draw but feel we can tweek it a little to even out the extreme at the unlucky end. I believe Wyoming has a system similar to the one I mentioned but yes 50/50 is to much. We don't have to have it 75%random/25%point it can be 95%random/5%point for all I care. Yes, an all out points system sucks. We don't want it or need it. However I have been that guy pounding his head on the wall bewildered at my poor luck. As mentioned I put if for hunts for 13 years religiously without drawing. They were not particularly hard tags to draw. 1 in 3 to 1 in 9 odds. But 1 in 3 odds does not mean at 6 years your are guaranteed a tag because the numbers are in your favor. It means every year the odds are 2 to 1 against your drawing with chance becoming a factor after so many attempts. Which is why you can loose everything you own on a straight flush in Vegas. The odds are ridiculously in your favor, but they are still odds. It would be nice if some method could be found for the terribly miss fortunate to get a tag when their years of not drawing have become beyond the fair time frame. 35 years for a 1 in 8 odds hunt is beyond that in my opinion. I would like to note that nobody offered any other suggestion but simply chose to accuse me of being uneducated in Algebra. In fact not true but as one of my favorite professors in college mentioned, "No matter how you try to quantify a regularly predictable event, sometimes shit happens." Some of us grasped that concept more than others.

It would be easier to swallow if Idaho Fish and Game had at any point divulged how tags were "randomly" drawn. Which is partly why by law Idaho Fish and Game now has to contract the drawings out after this year. I mean are we talking about numbers out of a hat? Most people can then come to the conclusion that in a 1 in 5 odds hunt your odds drop with each tag drawn that is not yours. How about the license number equation method. Where (+)(-)(x)and(/) are randomly put into your application number with the lowest outcome getting tags first. Doesn't take you long to determine if you have a lot of Zeros your odds go WAY up. Which would explain my sheep tag... I just looked and had 4 zeros and 3 ones on my application. Hmmm... Maybe I should just wait in line until the application numbers are favorable. Or they could be using the the well fed cow in a pasture full of your applications thrown about. The closest in proximity to the first poo get the tags. This would explain why it takes so long sometimes. Hay has become costly as of late. Could be their method for all we know.

Point being don't be quick to judge when someone says it's unfair. I've been fortunate as of late since I gave up on big game in Idaho and started putting my money elsewhere. I however still remember missing out on great hunts year after year after year when some guy was saying, "Huh, drew that one again. That was fun the last 2 times I've drawn that tag. I LOVE this random drawing!" You would be frustrated too. It's a problem that really could use a good solution for.
 
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A couple of weeks back there was a lottery drawing for half a billion dollars. Many people played because the odds, while very long indeed, were issued at a one to one balance. You might increase odds by purchasing multiple tickets but each one had the same value.
If everyone that has played for years got increased odds via a point system, younger folks simply would not buy tickets. Without the support of the youth, prices would have to go up, participation would be at all time lows, the lottery might be doomed. Sound familiar to anyone? We need to INCREASE youth participation in order to propagate our sport. A point system deters rather than encourages.
 
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