How long does it usually take to draw a goat tag?

[grandejuan]

The NV deadline is 29 April at 11:30 PM I believe. If you wish to just buy a point, it's an extra week. Just a few more stats from NV. There are several units where the odds are pretty fair ( for NR Desert Ram tags). I'll give the odds but not the unit number, you guys/gals have to do some of the research yourselves, it's good for your souls!!! There are two new hunts in new units so odds have yet to be determined. Here are some odds: 1/150, 1/130, 1/113, 1/116, 1/48, 1/115, 1/112, 1/80, 1/133, 1/65, 1/85, 1/89, 1/84. Just for fun here are some tough odds: 1/800, 1/1400, 1/500, 1/980, 1/628. The tough odds are mostly around Las Vegas. Get the info from NDOW, and unit map. FWIW. GJ

 

[npaden]

The NV deadline is 29 April at 11:30 PM I believe. If you wish to just buy a point, it's an extra week. Just a few more stats from NV. There are several units where the odds are pretty fair ( for NR Desert Ram tags). I'll give the odds but not the unit number, you guys/gals have to do some of the research yourselves, it's good for your souls!!! There are two new hunts in new units so odds have yet to be determined. Here are some odds: 1/150, 1/130, 1/113, 1/116, 1/48, 1/115, 1/112, 1/80, 1/133, 1/65, 1/85, 1/89, 1/84. Just for fun here are some tough odds: 1/800, 1/1400, 1/500, 1/980, 1/628. The tough odds are mostly around Las Vegas. Get the info from NDOW, and unit map. FWIW. GJ

The way Nevada lists their odds they are ugly, but you don't get the feeling that there is no hope. The problem is they don't show the bonus points and the fact that those bonus points are squared so you get the real feel for how bad things are. You are also just comparing the first choice in those numbers, you actually need to be using all 5 choices, that changes things as well since in Nevada you get all 5 choices looked at before they move to the next application.

For your 1 in 48 odds unit, there were actually 612 total applicants for that tag, just most of them were on later choices other than the 1st choice. Then factor in that some of those applicants had as many as 26 bonus points (squared so those applicants got 676 numbers in the hat) and it gets even more bleak. If you put it into TopRut it shows that you have less than a .1% chance of drawing that tag with 0 bonus points. Up it to 10 bonus points and you climb all the way up to .6% chance. And that is the "easiest" unit to draw in Nevada.

I'm still applying, but not with very high expectations.

 

[BuzzH]

To circle back to the original question about the goat tag and how long it takes. I applied from 1980-1998 before I drew in Montana as a resident. My brother drew in 1988, but had only applied a couple years.

The "odds" ranged from probably 1-10 in the early/best odds years I applied to 1-22 in the worst years and all the years I applied there were no bonus points. I would say when averaged out I drew a goat tag right there with the odds by applying for 18 years.

Odds are wayyyy worse now.

 

[npaden]

If I did the math correctly, when you look at that "easiest" to draw unit in Nevada, if you go through and square all the bonus points there were 35,521 chances for those applicants to draw the tag. If you had zero points you got 1 chance in 35,521 to draw that tag, not 1 chance in 48. Slightly different perspective once you include all of the choices and square the bonus points. I may not be doing the math correctly because those are even worse odds than TopRut is showing!

They are showing that for a max point holder applying in the "easiest" to draw unit in Nevada they have a 3.8% chance of drawing the tag. Using my math I got a 1.9% chance. Probably something to do with factoring in all 5 choices for everyone. I know they have a separate place where you can put all 5 choices in for Nevada and then get your overall odds of drawing a tag as well.

 

[grandejuan]

Realistically, only the first choice needs to be counted since there are to few tags to be selected (1-2). I look at how many first choice apps applied and what their pt total was. Only the first choice matters, the others have no real chance. If there were 48 apps and the guy/gal gets a low enough random number that's who gets it, one out of 48 first choice apps. Now for sure if the applicant has 25 pts he/she has more chances to draw a very low number than someone with 2 pts, but it does happen as it did last year. JM

 

[Mtnhunter1]

geeter,,,, There have been a whole lot of folks giving out good info and advise in this thread. I shall add some sobering stats for your original question about Mtn. Goats.

Last year, 2018, Montana awarded (18) Nonresident goat tags. Three of these successful nonresidents applied with MAX points at (17). One lucky nonresident drew a goat tag with only (3) points. Average the points across all (18) successful nonresident applicants, you get 10+ points needed. But there is always the “LUCK” factor as the (3) point applicant shows.

Mtn. Goats do not have the same “WOW” factor as has been applied to sheep. Hence, the Mtn. Goat populations spiraling downward trend is largely being ignored. Example; 2008 Montana issued (18) nonresident and (255) resident Mtn. Goat tags, (273) tags total. Fast forward to 2018 and Montana issued (18) nonresident and (159) resident goat tags, (177) tags total. In just a decade, Montana has lost 35% of the available goat tag opportunities.

Compound the dwindling resource with the squaring bonus point factor and you will soon see a dismal chance of drawing a tag in your lifetime. But then again, there will always be that “LUCK” factor that will keep the ember of hope glowing!

I wish you “GOOD LUCK” with your Mtn. Goat hunt ambitions. Goats are the true pinnacle big game species of our public lands.

Mtnhunter1

 

[Gr8bawana]

Realistically, only the first choice needs to be counted since there are to few tags to be selected (1-2). I look at how many first choice apps applied and what their pt total was. Only the first choice matters, the others have no real chance. If there were 48 apps and the guy/gal gets a low enough random number that's who gets it, one out of 48 first choice apps. Now for sure if the applicant has 25 pts he/she has more chances to draw a very low number than someone with 2 pts, but it does happen as it did last year. JM

That's ok, let them keep believing there is ZERO chance.

 

[Trial153]

Goat I wouldnt waste money on, not when you can buy hunt in Canada or Alaska for reasonable prices.
Sheep you have no choice ...apply in every state you can afford and hope to get lucky.

 

[geetar]

Montana and Idaho applications are due at the end of the month. Time to shit or get off the pot.

Lol I did the Montana Application this morning. Side note that woman in the video you sent me is one of the best looking guides I’ve ever seen.

 

[corndog1]

30 years and counting

 

[Huntin' Fool]

In Idaho for Mt Goats - Last season 230 NR apps got 4 tags

 

[geetar]

The NV deadline is 29 April at 11:30 PM I believe. If you wish to just buy a point, it's an extra week. Just a few more stats from NV. There are several units where the odds are pretty fair ( for NR Desert Ram tags). I'll give the odds but not the unit number, you guys/gals have to do some of the research yourselves, it's good for your souls!!! There are two new hunts in new units so odds have yet to be determined. Here are some odds: 1/150, 1/130, 1/113, 1/116, 1/48, 1/115, 1/112, 1/80, 1/133, 1/65, 1/85, 1/89, 1/84. Just for fun here are some tough odds: 1/800, 1/1400, 1/500, 1/980, 1/628. The tough odds are mostly around Las Vegas. Get the info from NDOW, and unit map. FWIW. GJ

I did the research on Nevada draw results and odds and ended up putting in for desert sheep and California bighorns. Rocky mtn bighorns weren’t available to me as a non resident and same with goats. Thanks for the info.

 

[geetar]

I did the research on Nevada draw results and odds and ended up putting in for desert sheep and California bighorns. Rocky mtn bighorns weren’t available to me as a non resident and same with goats. Thanks for the info.

Also put in for goat in Montana and started saving for the possibility that I never get drawn and have to go guided before I’m too old to do it and I plan to hunt Montana’s unlimited units starting with scouting this year and hunting the next few years afterwards.

 

[Mtnhunter1]

Seems like you have come up with a good game plan. You will be in good goat country while scouting the MT sheep unlimited units. You will then know if a goat hunt is still a future bucket list item.

Good Luck!

Mtnhunter1

 

[Deleted member 20812]

@geetar honestly before you go down the sheep rabbit hole just apply for archery mule deer in a high alpine unit. Deer will be at the exact same elevation and areas as sheep, do that hunt and afterwards decide if you really need to kill a sheep/goat.

You can do that muley hunt every year.

Honestly, this is where I am at. I went on a sheep hunt, had a great time, and realized big mule deer are really no different (or harder) to hunt than sheep. I spend months every year chasing chukars, mule deer, and elk in sheep country, without the wait.

 

[BestDeerHunterEver]

I think it just depends on the state and your budget. If i’m already buying a license for other species, why not apply for goat/sheep? Some states only make you buy the point to apply so it’s less expensive but even worse odds. I know I will likely never draw but there is no chance if I don’t put name in the hat. I also save money monthly in my “hunting fund” to pay for an outfitted hunt or two down the road as well. Getting to a point in my life I need to get serious about booking an outfitted hunt with those dollars as i’m not getting younger.

 

[TheGrayRider]

Geetar, you will find a way to mountain goat and bighorn sheep hunt in your lifetime, if thats truly your goal. A brand new loaded pickup truck costs about $55,000 today. Skip the expensive piece of depreciating scrap metal and buy yourself private hunts in Alaska or BC with the truck money. The truck will be in the junkyard in fifteen years. Your mountain hunts will still be conversation when you get to the nursing home in about 50 years. Good luck, TheGrayRider.

 

[3855WIN]

Also put in for goat in Montana and started saving for the possibility that I never get drawn and have to go guided before I’m too old to do it and I plan to hunt Montana’s unlimited units starting with scouting this year and hunting the next few years afterwards.

Have you been on any Western hunts so far? If not, start with antelope and go from there.

 

[EYJONAS!]

How long does it take....... about 45 days from now in MT. That's when I'll find out. All 17 years before that don't even matter when I get one. Pretty optimistic about it.

 

[EYJONAS!]

My dad, my older brother, myself, my younger brother, and my sister in law, all drew goat tags the first time we put in. My dad also drew the second time he put in.

Yea, it was a while back. Times are changing. I know,... it isn't funny.

Sweet jesus that's incredible