Housing Risk by County Map

[BigHornRam]

Some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it truly is. Appears that fast growth areas, and large metropolitan areas are at most risk. Florida, California, and Arizona don't look good.

 

[elkduds]

Some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it truly is. Appears that fast growth areas, and large metropolitan areas are at most risk. Florida, California, and Arizona don't look good.

View attachment 404260

@Oak , @marksjeep , @Phaseolus , Mesa County representin'. Which is whack, where TF are Pitkin, Routt and Eagle counties with all their trophy mostly empty vacation homes and no housing for locals?

 

[BigHornRam]

@Oak , @marksjeep , @Phaseolus , Mesa County representin'. Which is whack, where TF are Pitkin, Routt and Eagle counties with all their trophy mostly empty vacation homes and no housing for locals?

Like Teton County in Wyoming, likely few of those expensive properties have mortgages on them. So not really any risk of foreclosure.

 

[2rocky]

So highly leveraged homes....How many of those are because of Home Equity Lines of Credit to do a remodel, or pay off credit cards, or invest in toys that depreciate? I'm not innocent in that realm but access to easy credit has folks over extended. If you want to Make America Healthy Again start with mandatory credit counseling for anyone with a Debt to Asset Ratio over .4.

 

[marksjeep]

The article that the map is from is paywalled. But there are certainly quite a few new subdivisions going in, especially Fruita area. At least that's where I see them in my travels. I'm sure there are other areas in the valley growing as well. High risk? IDK. I don't see how any of the homes will help with affordability issues, none of them appear to be "starter" homes. Perhaps that weighs into the risk?

 

[Phaseolus]

Row crop farming is barely making a living for most farmers in this valley, especially the smaller farmer. Growing fruit is still profitable, that's why more growth is taking place in the lower valley, ie, Fruita. Of course there is also a lot more land in the Fruita area.

 

[SAJ-99]

I have a couple of people in my neighborhood putting houses up for sale this spring. My initial reaction to the potential listing prices has leaned toward "too high". Certainly rooting for them to sell, but wow. But I'm not sure there is "risk" other than the seller being disappointed. This is how the market ended last summer. Basically like being stuck in the mud.

 

[mevertsen]

I have a couple of people in my neighborhood putting houses up for sale this spring. My initial reaction to the potential listing prices has leaned toward "too high". Certainly rooting for them to sell, but wow. But I'm not sure there is "risk" other than the seller being disappointed. This is how the market ended last summer. Basically like being stuck in the mud.

How "too high" on your scale.

Is it, high, but you see that as a point for negotiation, which gets to a reasonable number easily.

Or is it like, "HOLY CRAP" , jumped the shark, off the charts high?

And either its going to sell to a cash buyer or set on the market for quite some time.

 

[406dn]

Our next door neighbor has put her house on the market, the last two summers, for the same price. She has not sold it yet. I have thought she was pretty ambitious with the asking price.

 

[SAJ-99]

How "too high" on your scale.

Is it, high, but you see that as a point for negotiation, which gets to a reasonable number easily.

Or is it like, "HOLY CRAP" , jumped the shark, off the charts high?

And either its going to sell to a cash buyer or set on the market for quite some time.

25-30% above what Zillow/county might have as a market estimate. At a total price point with limited buyers (2 to 3x median home price for larger region). High enough that a large mortgage at 6% would be tough, so a large chuck of cash will be needed. Just doesn’t feel like the market for that. We will see. Only takes one buyer.

 

[SAJ-99]

Another article, sort of showing the same picture on map and interactive table. My area is near the top, so that explains my view on the neighborhood.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91513094/housing-market-spring-2026-above-key-inventory-threshold-that-benefits-homebuyers

 

[SAJ-99]

How "too high" on your scale.

Is it, high, but you see that as a point for negotiation, which gets to a reasonable number easily.

Or is it like, "HOLY CRAP" , jumped the shark, off the charts high?

And either its going to sell to a cash buyer or set on the market for quite some time.

Update. One house went on market 4 wks ago with an open house. List was 3.5X median. Price cut 10% after one week.
Second house went on last week at 6x median. Beautiful, unique house, but the price point is tough.

my thoughts/ observations
- number of buyers for houses in these price ranges is very limited.
- If you don't get the price right from the start it might make selling more difficult because you lose interest from what few buyers that came through. Either people need to fire their RE agent or listen to them more, IMO.
- Cutting the price looks like an invitation to negotiate. We will have to see how that works out, but it will be a lower price.
- I still think sellers have anchored on "covid" prices that are too high for my area. The economy here is neither good nor bad, but with rates where they are, it makes affording the house hard for any family. They need some 'family money'.

Also, I saw a map that said the state of WA has 25% more sales inventory than this time last year (close to tops in nation). Midwest was best, IIRC. It will be interesting to see how that affects prices.

 

[BigHornRam]

There was a Doctor couple in the subdivision I lived in 20 years ago. Big house, big shop, decided to put in a tennis court, then decided to build even bigger on a 20 acre property. Put the tennis court house up for sale after finishing the 20 acre house. Listed it at an astronomical price for that time, with no buyer interest. Lowered the price, then the 2008 housing crash hit. Kept lowering the price with no buyers, while coming over every weekend to mow and maintain the property. This went on for around 6 years, and finally sold it for 1/3 of what they originally listed it for. They never were at risk of losing it, but what a crappy way to spend 6 years of your life! Be realistic when pricing a house you don't need, that is more than most buyers can afford, if you want to sell.

 

[BigHornRam]

Update. One house went on market 4 wks ago with an open house. List was 3.5X median. Price cut 10% after one week.
Second house went on last week at 6x median. Beautiful, unique house, but the price point is tough.

my thoughts/ observations
- number of buyers for houses in these price ranges is very limited.
- If you don't get the price right from the start it might make selling more difficult because you lose interest from what few buyers that came through. Either people need to fire their RE agent or listen to them more, IMO.
- Cutting the price looks like an invitation to negotiate. We will have to see how that works out, but it will be a lower price.
- I still think sellers have anchored on "covid" prices that are too high for my area. The economy here is neither good nor bad, but with rates where they are, it makes affording the house hard for any family. They need some 'family money'.

Also, I saw a map that said the state of WA has 25% more sales inventory than this time last year (close to tops in nation). Midwest was best, IIRC. It will be interesting to see how that affects prices.

Is this the start of wealthy folks getting the flock out of Washington state?

 

[SAJ-99]

Is this the start of wealthy folks getting the flock out of Washington state?

LOL. Everyone says that. I don't think it's that given last year Florida saw the same situation. But I can send those people a link to moving companies if they need help. Maybe they can move to WY.

 

[BigHornRam]

LOL. Everyone says that. I don't think it's that given last year Florida saw the same situation. But I can send those people a link to moving companies if they need help. Maybe they can move to WY.

Real estate sales have been slow, with prices coming down around here lately, as well. The covid craziness is a thing of the past, at least for now. High gas prices might curb tourism a little this season, and that is when real estate activity heats up.

Don't know how many more people Florida can squeeze in, before it becomes wall to wall housing. Way too crowded for me.

 

[Irrelevant]

Update. One house went on market 4 wks ago with an open house. List was 3.5X median. Price cut 10% after one week.
Second house went on last week at 6x median. Beautiful, unique house, but the price point is tough.

my thoughts/ observations
- number of buyers for houses in these price ranges is very limited.
- If you don't get the price right from the start it might make selling more difficult because you lose interest from what few buyers that came through. Either people need to fire their RE agent or listen to them more, IMO.
- Cutting the price looks like an invitation to negotiate. We will have to see how that works out, but it will be a lower price.
- I still think sellers have anchored on "covid" prices that are too high for my area. The economy here is neither good nor bad, but with rates where they are, it makes affording the house hard for any family. They need some 'family money'.

Also, I saw a map that said the state of WA has 25% more sales inventory than this time last year (close to tops in nation). Midwest was best, IIRC. It will be interesting to see how that affects prices.

We may go look at a house, it's been listed off and on for 15 years, every time they don't get any real interest, take it off the market, and then relist it a few years later 20% or more higher. Makes you wonder how someone so stupid or maybe disconnected from reality makes it that far in life.

If we like it, which my wife almost certainly will, I might be talked into making an offer, but it'll be <70% of the asking price.