Housing Risk by County Map

[BigHornRam]

Some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it truly is. Appears that fast growth areas, and large metropolitan areas are at most risk. Florida, California, and Arizona don't look good.

 

[elkduds]

Some interesting information. Not sure how accurate it truly is. Appears that fast growth areas, and large metropolitan areas are at most risk. Florida, California, and Arizona don't look good.

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@Oak , @marksjeep , @Phaseolus , Mesa County representin'. Which is whack, where TF are Pitkin, Routt and Eagle counties with all their trophy mostly empty vacation homes and no housing for locals?

 

[BigHornRam]

@Oak , @marksjeep , @Phaseolus , Mesa County representin'. Which is whack, where TF are Pitkin, Routt and Eagle counties with all their trophy mostly empty vacation homes and no housing for locals?

Like Teton County in Wyoming, likely few of those expensive properties have mortgages on them. So not really any risk of foreclosure.

 

[2rocky]

So highly leveraged homes....How many of those are because of Home Equity Lines of Credit to do a remodel, or pay off credit cards, or invest in toys that depreciate? I'm not innocent in that realm but access to easy credit has folks over extended. If you want to Make America Healthy Again start with mandatory credit counseling for anyone with a Debt to Asset Ratio over .4.

 

[marksjeep]

The article that the map is from is paywalled. But there are certainly quite a few new subdivisions going in, especially Fruita area. At least that's where I see them in my travels. I'm sure there are other areas in the valley growing as well. High risk? IDK. I don't see how any of the homes will help with affordability issues, none of them appear to be "starter" homes. Perhaps that weighs into the risk?

 

[Phaseolus]

Row crop farming is barely making a living for most farmers in this valley, especially the smaller farmer. Growing fruit is still profitable, that's why more growth is taking place in the lower valley, ie, Fruita. Of course there is also a lot more land in the Fruita area.

 

[SAJ-99]

I have a couple of people in my neighborhood putting houses up for sale this spring. My initial reaction to the potential listing prices has leaned toward "too high". Certainly rooting for them to sell, but wow. But I'm not sure there is "risk" other than the seller being disappointed. This is how the market ended last summer. Basically like being stuck in the mud.

 

[mevertsen]

I have a couple of people in my neighborhood putting houses up for sale this spring. My initial reaction to the potential listing prices has leaned toward "too high". Certainly rooting for them to sell, but wow. But I'm not sure there is "risk" other than the seller being disappointed. This is how the market ended last summer. Basically like being stuck in the mud.

How "too high" on your scale.

Is it, high, but you see that as a point for negotiation, which gets to a reasonable number easily.

Or is it like, "HOLY CRAP" , jumped the shark, off the charts high?

And either its going to sell to a cash buyer or set on the market for quite some time.

 

[406dn]

Our next door neighbor has put her house on the market, the last two summers, for the same price. She has not sold it yet. I have thought she was pretty ambitious with the asking price.

 

[SAJ-99]

How "too high" on your scale.

Is it, high, but you see that as a point for negotiation, which gets to a reasonable number easily.

Or is it like, "HOLY CRAP" , jumped the shark, off the charts high?

And either its going to sell to a cash buyer or set on the market for quite some time.

25-30% above what Zillow/county might have as a market estimate. At a total price point with limited buyers (2 to 3x median home price for larger region). High enough that a large mortgage at 6% would be tough, so a large chuck of cash will be needed. Just doesn’t feel like the market for that. We will see. Only takes one buyer.