Elk Opportunities: Increasing or Decreasing? Lets find out via the real stats!

[Hem]

Unscientific...since the early to mid nineties. Less elk, more hunters...and even less elk on public land.
I don't believe it is the fault of a particular party,wolves, bears.

 

[The Hedgehog]

It’s the glory days on private land..

 

[Dinkshooter]

It’s the glory days on private land..

Complete with glory holes

 

[Hem]

It’s the glory days on private land..

Pretty much.

 

[Dinkshooter]

No worries though, Colorado completely changed their 5 year season structure to allow time between seasons for the elk to come back from private land to public.

 

[Big Fin]

The original post focuses on elk. And, the original post focuses only on opportunity, which many feel is measured by tags sold.

Should we focus on the number of "hunters/tags issued, per elk" on the public lands or "number of hunters per million acres of accessible lands" rather than just total tags sold (opportunity)? I would argue most Hunt Talkers would equate one of those criteria to the quality of their experience and most on this site would focus on animals available on accessible public lands, not animals on private lands.

For the states with no limits on residents, the numbers below show it is more crowded each decade, if we can assume the new arrivals hunt in the similar proportions as the residents did in 1990, the base line year. I feel it in Montana. Since we cap non-residents (mostly), the added pressure I sense on public land is mostly from resident growth. And, likely combined with displacement of people who previously hunted private land who lost that access and are now hunting public land.

For states with limits on residents (AZ, NM, NV, somewhat CO) these numbers below show how much more resident competition there is for tags. Which, adds to the opportunity problem an individual hunter feels, as a tag every ten years is less opportunity than a tag every four years.

Do we think that animals numbers have kept up with the population growth (and likely resident hunter growth) shown in the charts below? Surely not for mule deer and antelope. Not for public land elk, though possibly private land elk has kept pace. Sheep, in states I apply to have went the other direction, as have moose.

Given the pressures population growth places on habitat I suspect animal numbers have peaked and are likely to go down, if they haven't declined already. We have seen studies that show how much general recreation impacts wildlife, so even if these new residents don't hunt and only bike or hike the impacts on wildlife are still there.

Given how changing land ownership trends closes more lands previously open to hunting, I suspect more lands will be closed to hunting, putting higher hunter densities on public lands.

Add fewer animals on public land, with more resident hunters and more competition for limited entry tags, and I suspect many would feel that the quality of their opportunity has decreased. Even if the actually quantity of the public land tags sold (opportunity) is higher than it was 20 years ago. In some instances, it is a loss of both quantity and quality of the opportunity, and that happens way more than increased quantity and quality of opportunity.

I know that sounds like "Back in my day" and to some degree it is. Hopefully with the population chart below, it is supported by something other than just my gut feeling or another old gray hair wanting something to complain about.



In the last 30 years we've added over 11 million residents in these inter-mountain states, or 82%. Given what I've seen since the 2019 census estimates projected in June 2019, I suspect those numbers are even higher today (November 2020).

The rate of growth in these inter-mountain states is some of the highest in the country. That seems to add even more pressure to the points mentioned herein.

Questions arise in my mind:

- How do we increase numbers of accessible elk (and other game) on public lands?​

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- Is it possible to find ways to get access to elk or other animals on private lands when trends are to closing more lands?​

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- When will the OTC states for residents be required to consider ways that reduce resident crowding or hunting pressure; or will they ever consider such?​

My focus has been to focus my energy on helping put more elk, sheep, deer in the hills. Or in some cases, to slow rate of decline among the wild things. Given our country can't have discussions about population growth (from all sources), I join with many on this forum who feel conservation efforts are the best remaining option to improve/sustain hunting opportunity.

 

[Carl 9.3x62]

I can buy three elk licenses every year in WY, fairly easily and have a good opportunity filling those tags. I feel like it's the good old days.

 

[Big Fin]

Again this is not the original topic, but if we want to talk about "elk opportunity" for traveling non-residents, the data may show such has increased in total (not sure it has), though competition (applicants per tag) for those opportunities seems greater than it has ever been. With the trends in information technology, platforms sharing information (such as we do), displacement of hunters from their home states, and a host of other factors, the competition for these non-resident western opportunities will increase.

I thought the general economy had a greater impact on non-resident interest, but the economic downturn with COVID has shown it is not that significant. It was a big factor in 2008-2010, but for reasons I don't understand, it has not shown to reduce non-resident interest as of the last eight months.

 

[Big Fin]

I can buy three elk licenses every year in WY, fairly easily and have a good opportunity filling those tags. I feel like it's the good old days.

That's a good point. I would hold Wyoming (and Arizona) as models for managing wildlife, especially elk. These agencies actively managing seem to have made it the "good old days" in those states. Wish more states followed that lead.

 

[Pagosa]

I have seen way less elk/deer in the back of pickups this year in western Montana. And the few I have seen were completely whole animals, which I imagine were shot on private land. The six weeks of heavy archery pressure this year, and ongoing rifle has forced the elk into serious hiding mode. It’s time to limit seasons and/or method of take.

 

[Sytes]

In the last 30 years we've added over 11 million residents in these inter-mountain states, or 82%. Given what I've seen since the 2019 census estimates projected in June 2019, I suspect those numbers are even higher today (November 2020).

The rate of growth in these inter-mountain states is some of the highest in the country. That seems to add even more pressure to the points mentioned herein.

Sure makes a quality argument for an outdoor user stamp or version of...

It’s time to limit seasons and/or method of take

Agree, speaking based on my avg joe experience for R1. Also seen the same elk bodies far beyond pack-out size for the antlered bodies in the p/u beds.

 

[HighWildFree]

I'm pretty sure I complain about this every year, but having formerly guided in central MT on private lands and a now strictly public hunter here in region 2, the difference is astounding. I've still have yet to see a legal bull during rifle season here in region 2.

As much as I'd rather have 2 weeks of good elk hunting than 5 weeks of rifle hiking, I just don't think there's the political will power or the level of organization from hunters to get it done. Ranchers and outfitters and a large part of the hunting crowd would balk at it.

The best that I can come up with is keep the 11 week season for private lands only (including BMAs) and shorten the archery and rifle seasons on public lands in general units for general tags to something like 3 weeks of each. FWP could allocate a handful of limited entry extended season tags for public lands, but the goal should be to reduce pressure and not return to the "opportunity spiral" that we're in now. This should keep landowners happy, public land outfitters would lose out. This would probably greatly increase crowding and pressure during those three weeks but hopefully create more pressure on private lands that in turn move elk to public lands.

The season structure is going to have to change along with FWP acknowledging the impact of increasing resident pressure that Randy alluded to earlier. We are probably on a similar trajectory as Colorado in terms of wildlife management so we should start looking at what works for them and what doesn't.

@Greenhorn 's right that the good old days of elk hunting are on private land right now, it's such a shame to see what it could be and how we're pissing it away.

 

[Pagosa]

I'm pretty sure I complain about this every year, but having formerly guided in central MT on private lands and a now strictly public hunter here in region 2, the difference is astounding. I've still have yet to see a legal bull during rifle season here in region 2.

As much as I'd rather have 2 weeks of good elk hunting than 5 weeks of rifle hiking, I just don't think there's the political will power or the level of organization from hunters to get it done. Ranchers and outfitters and a large part of the hunting crowd would balk at it.

The best that I can come up with is keep the 11 week season for private lands only (including BMAs) and shorten the archery and rifle seasons on public lands in general units for general tags to something like 3 weeks of each. FWP could allocate a handful of limited entry extended season tags for public lands, but the goal should be to reduce pressure and not return to the "opportunity spiral" that we're in now. This should keep landowners happy, public land outfitters would lose out. This would probably greatly increase crowding and pressure during those three weeks but hopefully create more pressure on private lands that in turn move elk to public lands.

The season structure is going to have to change along with FWP acknowledging the impact of increasing resident pressure that Randy alluded to earlier. We are probably on a similar trajectory as Colorado in terms of wildlife management so we should start looking at what works for them and what doesn't.

@Greenhorn 's right that the good old days of elk hunting are on private land right now, it's such a shame to see what it could be and how we're pissing it away.

That is a very smart idea, and good thinking. Someone should try to have this plan implemented with the MT FWP. It would probably fix a multitude of problems

 

[BigHornRam]

One vote here for choose your weapon, and pick your unit for elk in Western Montana. If we need to shorten seasons on specific units to reduce pressure, I'm in favor of that too.

 

[Walkalot]

I agree with you bighorn ram.

 

[The Hedgehog]

One vote here for choose your weapon, and pick your unit for elk in Western Montana. If we need to shorten seasons on specific units to reduce pressure, I'm in favor of that too.

I don’t think it will matter much at all. Problem is not that hunter pressure is messing things up in many places. That’ll just mean only a few weeks with crappy hunting, or a short season with fewer other hunters and just as crappy hunting.. unless you’re on some well managed private property.

 

[Walkalot]

Prob true, the best thing to come from it would be less people. But would be a start in the right direction. Selfishly I wish it was all like eastern mt. Limited entry split bow and rifle.

 

[mtmuley]

I don’t think it will matter much at all. Problem is not that hunter pressure is messing things up in many places.

Yep. mtmuley

 

[BigHornRam]

I don’t think it will matter much at all. Problem is not that hunter pressure is messing things up in many places. That’ll just mean only a few weeks with crappy hunting, or a short season with fewer other hunters and just as crappy hunting.. unless you’re on some well managed private property.

Well. We could all just quit hunting elk then.

 

[Nameless Range]

Interesting discussion. I appreciate those trying to explore the topic through quantitative means. There’s certainly a lot of variables.In a similar vein I have an anecdotal story from last Friday.


A few years ago I found a chunk of ground that made me really excited. 10 Square miles or so of a dry sub range of hills easy to overlook and difficult to access, in a hunting district that allowed the taking of a cow elk on your general tag. I’ve been a part of taking 4 cow elk and a bull out of there in the last six years, but I have not seen an elk in there in two years.

On Friday, with two days of snow on the ground, my hunting partner and I did a big 8 mile loop, through sage and timber with a lot of time spent behind the glass. We saw a mountain lion and a few mule deer, but didn’t even cut an elk track.

On our way out we were having a discussion about abandoning this chunk of country, and came up on an old man whose side-by-side had slipped off of his trailer. You could tell he wasn’t up to the situation and so we offered our help and got his side-by-side on the trailer properly and strapped down correctly. Afterwards we BS’d a bit. In talking to him, he told us he had been coming up there for nearly 30 years. He and his children had taken many bulls out of there - deer too - and historically when good snow hit the mountains the elk would migrate down into the valley through this range of hills which themselves are mountains. I asked him if he thought there was enough snow in the high country to push the elk down, and he responded that the elk no longer come down out of the mountains as they never go into them, they just stay down low on private ground.

Him: “FWP really hurt the elk herd when they let this place go to a cow on your general tag.”

Me: “ I believe it. I’ve been here twice this year and a couple times last year and put on a lot of miles and they are just not in here.”

Him. Looking into the mountains: “This whole district is fu#%ed.”


There’s a lot of factors involved in this discussion, but for Montana, something I think is insanely critical, is the current block management program.

There are 27,000,000 acres of public land in Montana, nearly 2 of which is inaccessible. Right now there are 13,000,000 acres of block management enrolled in Montana. That’s half again as many acres to hunt in Montana as the average guy currently has access to. Sure, not all parcels are elk habitat, but I think about what will happen if some of the big black managements near where I live decide to pull out and I cringe. The already hammered public land will become very similar to the dry range of hills mentioned above, and old men and women will be left talking about the good old days with the wind in their face.

This is a war with many fronts, and in some geographies battles have been lost or are on the precipice.

The red on this map are the block management areas of Montana: