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Elk Opportunities: Increasing or Decreasing? Lets find out via the real stats!

seeth07

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Joined
Oct 14, 2016
Messages
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Location
Markesan, WI
There is a recent forum post with a genuine question about the future of elk hunting. (found here: https://www.hunttalk.com/threads/future-of-elk-hunting-in-the-west-on-public-land.300258/)

As I read and participated in that discussion, one of the things that I wanted to know was whether or not actual hunting opportunities are on the increase or decrease. There is a lot of talk about how we are in the "glory days" of elk hunting. At the same time you hear lots of chatter stating that Elk hunting in the West is drastically trending upward. The second statement is pretty easy to prove just by looking at the amount of applicants in the various western big game states. There is no doubt that the interest in big game hunting is soaring as tags are getting harder to draw and OTC units disappear. So the question I have then is: Are we really in the glory days of elk hunting?

To start answering that question, a person has to define the meaning of "glory". I think for most hunters they would define it simply by volume of elk on the landscape and volume of chances to hunt them. Sure some may add that tagging big monster "trophies" is really what defines it but I would like to feel that the majority are more concerned about spending time chasing and harvesting animals for the experience and freezer.

So from my assumption that "glory days" of elk hunting is mostly about opportunity, I'm setting out on a journey to fully investigate how this has changed (or perhaps not changed) over the last 20 years. I'm collecting data from all the various state agencies from 2001 until this current 2020 season. What I'm looking for is the actual amount of licenses that were sold and using that for comparison of "hunting opportunity" over the last two decades. I've got a good start on it and I'll share right now where I'm at. The reason for sharing and jumping the gun on this forum post is because I actually could use some help. Some states I'm really struggling at finding correct and accurate information. Most eastern states were pretty easy (except for the fact of determining whether or not that 1 RMEF auction/raffle tag was including in the report) just simply due to the low volume of issued tags. Western states are much more difficult as not all of them seem to report actual license sales that are easy to find. If anyone has links or direction, I would greatly appreciate it!

When I'm all done, I'm going to write a full summary along with some key observations that I find from this little research project. Some will be obvious (like how eastern state elk hunting is on a very steady incline) and I'm sure some won't (like how Wyoming mountains and plains are actually getting less crowded by elk hunters each year). I also want to take this one step further and look at actual total elk harvests as well. I can already see the argument "yeah well so what if opportunity is increasing. That's just because the states want to make more money by selling more licenses. There are less elk being harvested each year so that is more important to look at".

1595975887147.png
 
Elk harvest stats in Montana will be tough, and probably not accurate. Especially when FWP calls and asks if you saw any wolves, but ignores questions about hunting success. mtmuley
Yes, the Montana elk management plan is horrible on statistics to say the least when I skimmed through it. As much as I enjoy a good read, the 100 some page plan didn't get a full read from me
 
Yes, the Montana elk management plan is horrible on statistics to say the least when I skimmed through it. As much as I enjoy a good read, the 100 some page plan didn't get a full read from me
Go to the FWP site. But, like I said, Montana doesn't keep accurate track of anything. mtmuley
 
So first off, I tried to do something like this last year.

Reporting by states is wildly different, some like Oregon? are very easy, some like Utah are basically impossible. You are going to have to file FOIA requests to get data from some of the western states. Last year I filed them in Utah, WA, CO. Typically they charge you any where between $30-90 dollars for this info. A lot of the pre 2010 data is rough because states gov as a general rule are about a decade behind the times (at least) early-mid 2000 CO data will be in lotus. All of the states have specific FOIA (CORA (CO), GRAMA (UT), PRD Washington coordinators in their state agencies that work on these requests. These folks are not the people who prepare the numbers and presentations for the comission, so you might watch a meeting with a clean spreadsheet, but good luck ever seeing that data, you're gonna get some crap a 18 year old intern threw together for you in 15 min.

Then once you do get the data you have to deal with it...

1. This is CO application data, basically a bunch of codes, I had to go through the brochure + regs for hours figure out this crap. As you can see it's so sliced and diced that aggregating it is kinda "your opinion man" which is why my tables and Steve's looked so different during the great CO SW limited archery debate. He was getting his from Andy Holland via Danielle Isenhart (I'm assuming as she sent me an identical spreadsheet ) at CPW, I disagreed about a few of the ways CPW employees "cut" their data. Draw systems are so different state to state, tag allocation, OTC v. draw, etc it's hard to compare applications apples to apples

2. Harvest numbers... woof... some states, AK, OR, WA, ID, UT (kinda), NV, CA, PA, NM have mandatory reporting so they have good data. CO, MT, WY,AZ basically decided it was "too hard" those states represent around 60% of the elk harvested in the US. These states use a survey with random sampling to get their numbers... like US election polling. It's fine on herd wide/statewide basis but you can't read into it for specific areas. Also the survey varies between all of these states I think ID? actually records the number of 6 points shot, while CO just ask bull or cow.

3. Depredation... have not gotten a straight answer about this from a lot of states, where do animals killed because of damage factor into your numbers. I believe MT issues tags for deer/elk, I don't think CO includes bears killed by sheep herders in their harvest reports even though one permittee in the flattops killed 83 bears in a 3 year period while the total harvest by hunters was ~163.

1595977222842.png

then they straight up changed everything for 2018- Present
1595979330345.png

So yeah this is a task... would be great if you could divvy it up between states and a resident in each state could try and wrap their hands around their data.
 
Last edited:
Here is a lot of the work I did
 
Sorry for the highjack Seeth07. Looking forward to seeing the results of your research.
 
So first off, I tried to do something like this last year.

Reporting by states is wildly different, some like Oregon? are very easy, some like Utah are basically impossible. You are going to have to file FOIA requests to get data from some of the western states. Last year I filed them in Utah, WA, CO. Typically they charge you any where between $30-90 dollars for this info. A lot of the pre 2010 data is rough because states gov as a general rule are about a decade behind the times (at least) early-mid 2000 CO data will be in lotus. All of the states have specific FOIA (CORA (CO), GRAMA (UT), PRD Washington coordinators in their state agencies that work on these requests. These folks are not the people who prepare the numbers and presentations for the comission, so you might watch a meeting with a clean spreadsheet, but good luck ever seeing that data, you're gonna get some crap a 18 year old intern threw together for you in 15 min.

Then once you do get the data you have to deal with it...

1. This is CO application data, basically a bunch of codes, I had to go through the brochure + regs for hours figure out this crap. As you can see it's so sliced and diced that aggregating it is kinda "your opinion man" which is why my tables and Steve's looked so different during the great CO SW limited archery debate. He was getting his from Andy Holland via Danielle Isenhart (I'm assuming as she sent me an identical spreadsheet ) at CPW, I disagreed about a few of the ways CPW employees "cut" their data. Draw systems are so different state to state, tag allocation, OTC v. draw, etc it's hard to compare applications apples to apples

2. Harvest numbers... woof... some states, AK, OR, WA, ID, UT (kinda), NV, CA, PA, NM have mandatory reporting so they have good data. CO, MT, WY,AZ basically decided it was "too hard" those states represent around 60% of the elk harvested in the US. These states use a survey with random sampling to get their numbers... like US election polling. It's fine on herd wide/statewide basis but you can't read into it for specific areas. Also the survey varies between all of these states I think ID? actually records the number of 6 points shot, while CO just ask bull or cow.

3. Depredation... have not gotten a straight answer about this from a lot of states, where do animals killed because of damage factor into your numbers. I believe MT issues tags for deer/elk, I don't think CO includes bears killed by sheep herders in their harvest reports even though one permittee in the flattops killed 83 bears in a 3 year period while the total harvest by hunters was ~163.

View attachment 148431

then they straight up changed everything for 2018- Present
View attachment 148436

So yeah this is a task... would be great if you could divvy it up between states and a resident in each state could try and wrap their hands around their data.

I've spent a lot of time digging through the stats on the CPW website but have yet to pay for any data from them. And I know the column in question on the below screen capture is listed as an estimate and you have a lot more granularity in your data from 2018 above but feel like if you wanted a quick and dirty number for Seeth07's project without having to pay for anything this might be an option. It would hopefully at least provide a number that could be compared year to year.

As a side note I added up what I've got below vs yours above and got a discrepancy of 2398 hunters 225,945 vs 223,547, I wonder why that would be. Maybe someone paid for a tag but never actually went hunting. If the two datasets can be compared at all.

1596040793277.png
 
I've spent a lot of time digging through the stats on the CPW website but have yet to pay for any data from them. And I know the column in question on the below screen capture is listed as an estimate and you have a lot more granularity in your data from 2018 above but feel like if you wanted a quick and dirty number for Seeth07's project without having to pay for anything this might be an option. It would hopefully at least provide a number that could be compared year to year.

As a side note I added up what I've got below vs yours above and got a discrepancy of 2398 hunters 225,945 vs 223,547, I wonder why that would be. Maybe someone paid for a tag but never actually went hunting. If the two datasets can be compared at all.

View attachment 148549

Scroll down to all methods of take... Total hunters 224,385
 
I would first see if someone else has already done this. I found this. https://www.backcountrychronicles.com/elk-harvest-comparison-western-states/
I'm not sure FOIA applies to State agencies, so they may tell you to go fly a kite. However, many states have a similar law to FOIA that would require them to do it so you may be able to take that path. I guarantee that the data is collected. Montana basically has everything online but it is often impossible to find without being very creative. They ten to post the data by years in articles on FWP site. Try this https://faunalytics.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Citation2189.pdf UnfortunatelyYou may need to decipher how they organize the data and collection methods may change so certain blocks of years may not be comparable.
 
So first off, I tried to do something like this last year.

Reporting by states is wildly different, some like Oregon? are very easy, some like Utah are basically impossible. You are going to have to file FOIA requests to get data from some of the western states. Last year I filed them in Utah, WA, CO. Typically they charge you any where between $30-90 dollars for this info. A lot of the pre 2010 data is rough because states gov as a general rule are about a decade behind the times (at least) early-mid 2000 CO data will be in lotus. All of the states have specific FOIA (CORA (CO), GRAMA (UT), PRD Washington coordinators in their state agencies that work on these requests. These folks are not the people who prepare the numbers and presentations for the comission, so you might watch a meeting with a clean spreadsheet, but good luck ever seeing that data, you're gonna get some crap a 18 year old intern threw together for you in 15 min.

Then once you do get the data you have to deal with it...

1. This is CO application data, basically a bunch of codes, I had to go through the brochure + regs for hours figure out this crap. As you can see it's so sliced and diced that aggregating it is kinda "your opinion man" which is why my tables and Steve's looked so different during the great CO SW limited archery debate. He was getting his from Andy Holland via Danielle Isenhart (I'm assuming as she sent me an identical spreadsheet ) at CPW, I disagreed about a few of the ways CPW employees "cut" their data. Draw systems are so different state to state, tag allocation, OTC v. draw, etc it's hard to compare applications apples to apples

2. Harvest numbers... woof... some states, AK, OR, WA, ID, UT (kinda), NV, CA, PA, NM have mandatory reporting so they have good data. CO, MT, WY,AZ basically decided it was "too hard" those states represent around 60% of the elk harvested in the US. These states use a survey with random sampling to get their numbers... like US election polling. It's fine on herd wide/statewide basis but you can't read into it for specific areas. Also the survey varies between all of these states I think ID? actually records the number of 6 points shot, while CO just ask bull or cow.

3. Depredation... have not gotten a straight answer about this from a lot of states, where do animals killed because of damage factor into your numbers. I believe MT issues tags for deer/elk, I don't think CO includes bears killed by sheep herders in their harvest reports even though one permittee in the flattops killed 83 bears in a 3 year period while the total harvest by hunters was ~163.

View attachment 148431

then they straight up changed everything for 2018- Present
View attachment 148436

So yeah this is a task... would be great if you could divvy it up between states and a resident in each state could try and wrap their hands around their data.
 
If anyone thinks their overall big game hunting opportunities have done anything but decrease with the internet’s, social media, application services and TVs, has been on a Colorado ski vacation with a special store down the street......
 
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