Arizona drawing strategies

[A-con]

For those of you who play the “drawing game” in Arizona, this is a year of major changes.
What do YOU think will happen?
Here’s how I see it;

With the new requirements, all money up front, mandatory license purchase, and no internet applications, I think about 30% of non residents will drop out, or mess up on the application and not be in the drawing. This 30% will be mostly the low or no point holders. Resident applications will drop about 10% for the same reasons.
Most of the applicants, especially the non residents will put in for the super premium hunts and units.
With the new single drawing pool for residents and non-residents alike, along with the 30% drop out rate, the odds for non-residents should increase, by 10% to 15% in the premium hunts and increase by 50% or more in the less popular hunts/units. Odds for residents, forced into the same drawing pool with non-residents will drop by 30% or more in the premium hunt/units, and stay about the same in the less popular hunt/units.

With most of the high points holders staying in the game (non resident), applicants with five or fewer points will only see a modest, if any increase. But those with ten or more points will draw lots of tags this year.
Of course, all of the above is pure speculation, 100% guess work.
What do you think, do I have it right? Am I dreaming, do you see it differently?

I recently took a vacation in Arizona and was surprised to see how green everything was, this has been a great winter/spring for rainfall in the southwest. It should be the best year for hunting (antler growth) since the “El nino” of the early 80s.

 

[JoseCuervo]

A-Con,

My guess is the "series of unfortunate events" likely accelearated our expected draw dates by a two years due to the items you cited above.

 

[AZ402]

Most likely the both of you will be ahead of schedule on the draw like you mentioned. The weather has been conducive to antler growth for sure. The rut hunts will still depend on cooler weather in late Aug through mid-sept.

 

[Buschy]

A-Con,

I have seven bonus points for elk as a non-resident. I am looking for an opportunity to hunt AZ before prices go up and draw odds go down. I am not putting in for the premium hunts. I have researched areas for years and have a good idea where I would like to apply. Anyone have any recommendations for a decent unit and a good chance of drawing?? Just thought I would ask to get some ideas. Take care.

 

[Gunner46]

I was a RESIDENT there for a couple of years and had a tough time drawing tags! |oo

My only advise is to Apply..Apply..Apply..Apply..!!!!!!!!!!!!

Prayer doen't hurt...............

Good luck

 

[A-con]

Rifle, muzzeloader or archery ?
Basicly, go to the link to the regulations ( on the "Big Game" page ) and download em. I think if you go with a late season hunt, odds should be pretty good.
With 7 points, 6a muzzeloader or late rifle ?

 

[Cameron Hunt]

I dont think that I will apply here. I will go buy my over the counter tag in wa. or id. better odds in that I think

 

[Buschy]

A-Con,

You are right I forgot to mention a weapon. We are looking at a rifle hunt. I am tryinh to decide which late hunt to put in for.

 

[A-con]

In the mail today were the Az. app.s, regulations and survey data book.