Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[BigHornRam]

Set back for the wealth tax advocates. Nazi guy in Maine is dropping out of Senate race. Stevie Wonder saw that coming.

 

[Bonasababy]

It would be interesting to see what they say. I tilt toward it being part of the Accountant Full Employment rules.

A couple of things to mull over. Guidance is not a requirement. Many companies have gone away from giving it, but the rest of the them still have people working on some stupid financial model to provide a number that CEO doesn't like and he just makes up a number instead. But I digress. (sorry, flashback on that one...).

The talk of less frequent reporting has been bounced around for a long time. Sometimes the argument was "less work for people and cheaper", which no one really bought. I don't think it applies here much either. With today's technology, it should be pretty easy for a greenhorn accountant with minimal training to throw out a 10Q on the SEC website. There is also no law requiring a quarterly conference call, so they can stop doing them.


I mostly just roll my eyes at this. Like I said, it has come up over the last 25 yrs. In the past, the main argument has been investors should be focused on the long term, so quarterly earnings are unnecessary and lead to stock price volatility. The argument is you can reduce the share price volatility if you take away what causes it. What this argument ceases to understand is that the market NEEDS volatility. Every buyer needs a seller. It is as much an input as it is a measurable result. If you take away earnings reports, investors/traders will focus on something else to determine if they should buy or sell. Warsh is going to learn the same thing with Fed communication and interest rate volatility. Add to that, the current environment requires CEO's to be sales people - sell the narrative. Can't do that without a qtly call.

There has always been a political tilt to the arguments. Rep want to help companies reduce cost, Dems argue that investors need more information. I don't think most investors have ever cracked a 10Q and most advisors haven't either. Both groups trade on inside information so they don't care much about investors or transparency.

I know too many people who have lost trust in markets and arent investing like they should. Thankfully most have employers that push hard to help save for retirement. But all these easing decisions dont help peoples trust of the regulators, IMO.

 

[Bonasababy]

Set back for the wealth tax advocates. Nazi guy in Maine is dropping out of Senate race. Stevie Wonder saw that coming.

National news is saying he is mulling over his options. Has until the 13th to allow a replacement in time, I heard.

I dont see this as affecting tax strategy much at all.

 

[Treeshark]

I know too many people who have lost trust in markets and arent investing like they should.

Losing trust in investing in the markets after the past few (or fifteen) years especially seems like a crazy conclusion to arrive at to me.

Any idea why?

 

[BigHornRam]

National news is saying he is mulling over his options. Has until the 13th to allow a replacement in time, I heard.

I dont see this as affecting tax strategy much at all.

He's done.

Democrats begin withdrawing endorsements of Graham Platner after Senate candidate is accused of sexual assault – live https://share.google/Su8uyQ6PwdEwyp5pv

 

[SAJ-99]

He's done.

Democrats begin withdrawing endorsements of Graham Platner after Senate candidate is accused of sexual assault – live https://share.google/Su8uyQ6PwdEwyp5pv

He should just become a Republican.

 

[SAJ-99]

I know too many people who have lost trust in markets and arent investing like they should. Thankfully most have employers that push hard to help save for retirement. But all these easing decisions dont help peoples trust of the regulators, IMO.

It’ll they don’t have trust in markets with quarterly reporting, changing it to semi annual won’t matter. I guess the entire premise may be fraud is harder to detect? My concern is that fraud is almost the point now.

 

[Flatrock]

Set back for the wealth tax advocates. Nazi guy in Maine is dropping out of Senate race. Stevie Wonder saw that coming.

Lol. Oh Bighorn you crack me up. Just always out in the fuggin weeds.

 

[Bonasababy]

It’ll they don’t have trust in markets with quarterly reporting, changing it to semi annual won’t matter. I guess the entire premise may be fraud is harder to detect? My concern is that fraud is almost the point now.

They wont focus on the details/actual impact of the change at all...it will be perceived as yet another reduction in oversight that benefits the wealthy/connected.

 

[schmalts]

I don't mean to be political, as corruption knows no partisan boundaries, but it's tough not the feel like we live in an age of massive political and market corruption, and any market-related EO Trump concocts (or signs for someone else) is likely a furtherance of the current moral decline of our government.

View attachment 411899

Have you felt the same about the Congress and Senate Insider trading? Like Pelosi and her magical returns?

 

[Nameless Range]

Have you felt the same about the Congress and Senate Insider trading? Like Pelosi and her magical returns?

Definitely. Once as a public servant I had to return a Yeti Tumbler that was gifted to a team I was on by a contractor because its value was deemed to exceed $50 - it felt silly but was proper to have to decline that gift. Public service not being a rigged or quid pro quo thing is a virtuous goal. But Pelosi would be embarrassed by the market success of the current administration. Trump has made about 2 billion dollars since becoming president - 1 year and 5 months ago.

We're a long way from Jimmy Carter putting his peanut farm into a blind trust to avoid conflicts of interest. I like this thread because I am largely ignorant of market stuff and it is interesting and I learn from you guys, but to the uninitiated it looks like an Age of Naked Corruption and that seems to be the case with Trump.

 

[BuzzH]

Have you felt the same about the Congress and Senate Insider trading? Like Pelosi and her magical returns?

That's about like comparing a paper cut to having your leg chopped off by a chainsaw...FFS.

 

[schmalts]

That's about like comparing a paper cut to having your leg chopped off by a chainsaw...FFS.

No it's not. Your opinion never matters to me BTW

 

[SAJ-99]

No it's not. Your opinion never matters to me BTW

Buying NVDA calls
vs.
Reynolds donating $5m to MAGA inc., executives having lunch with Trump a few days later, and within a week the FDA is ordered by RFK to reduce the review process on flavored vapes.

These don't seem different? Member of congress just don't have the same control over actions. Both may seem bad to the average person because they are cut out of the information loop, which I understand, but it seems different. And Pelosi didn't create her own meme coin and sell it to her cult members.

 

[BuzzH]

No it's not. Your opinion never matters to me BTW

You never hold team red accountable...so surprising. Its always a whataboutism with you.

 

[Treeshark]

These don't seem different? Member of congress just don't have the same control over actions.

But members of Congress do have privileged information before the public. They really are not different in the sense that both parties are using that info (and influence) via their public position to enrich themselves.

By what mechanism that takes place is different, but the fact that both methods are corrupt as hell doesn’t really change.

 

[SAJ-99]

But members of Congress do have privileged information before the public. They really are not different in the sense that both parties are using that info (and influence) via their public position to enrich themselves.

By what mechanism that takes place is different, but the fact that both methods are corrupt as hell doesn’t really change.

Both are bad, maybe even corrupt, but not the same. And I have long supported limits on Congressional trading. But equating the two is ridiculous. A senator is but one of 100 votes on any legislation. The President sits in a position where his UNILATERAL action can impact stock prices. Ex. buying Intel before announcing your admin negotiated a government stake in the company, or buying a bunch of stocks before announcing a pause on Tariffs. This doesn't even include direct payments from corporations to Trump financial entities and the guy has misused these funds for personal use in the past. I guess there is no one to look into it anymore. I just assume people that don't see it don't want to see it.

 

[Bonasababy]

Both are bad, maybe even corrupt, but not the same. And I have long supported limits on Congressional trading. But equating the two is ridiculous. A senator is but one of 100 votes on any legislation. The President sits in a position where his UNILATERAL action can impact stock prices. Ex. buying Intel before announcing your admin negotiated a government stake in the company, or buying a bunch of stocks before announcing a pause on Tariffs. This doesn't even include direct payments from corporations to Trump financial entities and the guy has misused these funds for personal use in the past. I guess there is no one to look into it anymore. I just assume people that don't see it don't want to see it.

Many dont know there are more limits on congress than there are on the president regarding this.

One positive thing coming out of Trumps term will be his ability to highlight where norms taken for granted by fair and honest people need regulation/laws to insure grift and open personal profiteering are directly illegal.

 

[Bonasababy]

Looks like we bought our airline tickets for our trip this fall at the right time!

 

[schmalts]

But members of Congress do have privileged information before the public. They really are not different in the sense that both parties are using that info (and influence) via their public position to enrich themselves.

By what mechanism that takes place is different, but the fact that both methods are corrupt as hell doesn’t really change.

Speaker of the house buys million of Tesla, then introduces a bill to mandate EV and other that IC for government fleet. Yeah, that's not insider trading.