Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?
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SAJ-99
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Goog question. All a guess at this point. They are certainly popular names and there is a ton of institutional money that will be looking to get in if they don't hold any in the private market already. Valuation will matter. SpaceX/Xai looks like it will be first - June-ish. The main problem I see is that during this latest rebound volume has been soft. Tech has led the way, as it has in almost every V shaped recovery for the least 20 years, but I think the AI narrative is moving to the phase where people want to start seeing some cash flow. I like many others use Claude, but if I have to pay $25/mo I will just move to Gemini. I can't see where Anthropic is worth $700-900B at IPO, and that is the best AI model out there. But if they float a small enough %, the retail traders may push it up?
Bonasababy
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Not something Id ever invest in so take this fir what its worth, but the primer on all of them I heard a talk on recently didnt do much to lower my concern over investing when risk and uncertainty of who rises above is so high. I did like what I heard about the morality and principles of Anthropic though...Trump/Hegseth are not fans but if..as I expect...public backlash continues to grow I like their chances better. Kind of analogous to the ESG popularity...caring about more than share price can be good for business.
Still would more inclined to search out funds or ETFs which reduce the risk somewhat.
Still would more inclined to search out funds or ETFs which reduce the risk somewhat.
jryoung
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I clicked on a article a couple weeks ago so the discussion of what it does the to the boarder market is all in my feed right now. I keep wondering if there might be a perfect storm for markets if gas prices continue to rise (or stay steady) and tepid interest in the IPOs. The cash flow narrative is true for all things AI, the spends not just from the hyperscalers are bonkers and at some point someone is going to start to tap the break, or maybe not....Meta's Q1 echoed this pretty significantly.
jryoung
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And a $920million oil short just before "making progress with Iran" announcement.
PoleX
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All My Dollars is finally going on a tear...
PoleX
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@Irrelevant , did you stay the coarse on AMD or did you end up dumping it?
Irrelevant
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Both. Dumped quite a bit. Kept just enough to hate myself
BigHornRam
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That was me.
SAJ-99
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I’ve seen estimates showing the AI buildout accounts for about 75% of US economic growth. Basically driving the manufacturing numbers. Everything else non-AI is not looking great. The various states’ push-back on new data centers is going to be a problem. The space is crazy overbought and screaming for a correction, but it feels like jumping in front of a train.
yeah, but i think it's a good thing. the need for the growth is so great that i think the pushback will hopefully result in common ground being found. i'm totally on board with forcing concessions for a more thoughtful buildout.
it's a bit of NIMBYISM, sure, at least right now... but if it can at least go beyond the leech reality and optics of just sucking an areas power and natural resources with little long term economic benefit I don't think the pushback will be so great.
Forkyfinder
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Honest question though - whats that look like? The only certainty is extreme NIMBYism.
To me - these things go great in the rural midwest, where the land is already a dim shadow of its natural self.
Ask a farmer in the rural midwest about it though and he would tell you the vast "useless" unproductive land in the west is more fitting.
SAJ-99
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Possible it could change, but people aren't seeing benefits. Data centers, after they are built, don't employ a lot of people. The main problem is everyone is talking about the great gains in productivity measures from AI, but the gains are from the denominator (people, time, and pay) slowing down, not from great gains in output.
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hunter49
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@Forkyfinder - F that. The midwest is a beautiful place if you know what your looking at. Stick them in the cities.
Forkyfinder
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I was thinking about this exact thing on the way home the other day. Everyone's home "town" has an innate beauty they don't want to see corrupted and what someone views as proverbial trash is always someone else's proverbial treasure.
Of course I too am going to argue for the midwest where the habitat and species concerns are far less delicate, water is abundant and importantly has a far less burdensome legal structure around it's availability. But, of course the Michigan farmer is going to have an opposite viewpoint that I cant say is less legitmate.
And to answer forky's questions of "what does it look like?" to me it means they have to bring something beyond employment to wherever they want to build and I think the state's and local governments need to push on that to reap benefits, and not one time benefits.
I sure feel like there is plenty of opportunity for data centers to go in around existing industrial infrastructure, whether it's in Cheyenne, Greeley, Fort Collins, or Denver. I have no problem with that. Of it hey wanna stick em out on the eastern plains of colorado where there is nothing but farmland. But the resource and power issues need to be addressed by the state and local governments, and i think local governments be it county or municipal need to pushback in a thoughtful way reap benefits becasue as you say, they don't really employ people. I imagine there are plenty of ways they can extract something else to benefit the locale. And maybe they go somewhere because of those demands not my problem if other places don't demand the same. But if everyone starts saying "we need more from you if you wanna build here" then the companies will have no choice. And like i said if other places don't want to demand that, not my problem, but if they wanna build here we need to see more benefit injected into the local community.
I guess in summary back to my original point, i'm all for the pushback.
BigHornRam
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Plenty of vacant Shopko buildings to fill, before gobbling up vacant land.
Forkyfinder
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I agree in principle - but what other technical innovation has caused that?
I.e. industrial revolution, internet, internal combustion engine, etc
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