Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Irrelevant]

Gotta love the fiscal conservatives running this joint, so much better than those damn financially illiterate libtards.

 

[SAJ-99]

The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it | Fortune

The Government Accountability Office can't even verify the books. Here's what Congress must do.

fortune.com

Saw that yesterday. Made me laugh. With all respect to @Big Fin, the anaysis is flawed at best, and why the impact of most things are cut off at 10yrs. I just don't know how to make it better and certainly not how to make it correct. The analysis is correct by accounting or actuarial standards, but definitely going to be wrong because the future is largely unknown and there are a lot of moving pieces. In this case the future payout promises are more known than the future inflows, which are not promised, so they get counted. The whole thing gets skewed. Here is the summary of numbers from the article. I should be pretty clear there are some things missing. The whole thing is crazy. I assume the GAO has a big excel spreadsheet they do this on every year and no one wants to change it.

Even the GAO says the path is unsustainable. The path is measured by debt to GDP and I'm not sure GDP is the right measurement. If the goal is to tax as little of the pieces of GDP as possible then it is for sure the wrong denominator. Maybe Fins suggestion of debt per capital is a better measurement. I just don't want to tell all the people getting tax refunds on overtime and tips that their net financial position actually got worse.

 

[Irrelevant]

I just don't want to tell all the people getting tax refunds on overtime and tips that their net financial position actually got worse.

This is actually my biggest complaint, we've traded adults for whores. We need leaders that don't buy votes with reduced taxes on OT but flat out tell people, all tax breaks are going away, you're going to pay 10k more than you did last year, and that just is what it is. You also don't get SS until you're 75, the DoD gets a 40% budget reduction, and every other department needs to plan on 5% reductions every year for 4 years.

Instead we have these whores telling us how great America is while we spiral into corrupt doom, one tweet at a time.

 

[BigHornRam]

There is another alternative. You could trim the position. In your defense, I didn't like oil stocks up yesterday with oil down -10%. That isn't healthy. ditto gold and gold miners. I expect lots of volatility in these spaces. I'm more concerned about trends in overall economy and ultimate demand. 2025 was slow. 2026 looks anemic.

Lots of volatility. Wall Street is the new Las Vegas. Gamblers don't look at silly things like demand, the way an investor would.

 

[406dn]

But not convinced enough to buy?

I have enough eggs in that basket, I think.

I met a good friend this morning, and we ran our bird dogs from horseback. Then we ate lunch in Columbus. I noticed the Town Pump truck stop had diesel at $4.749/gallon. I did not see the price, today, in Laurel.

 

[bayoublaster7527]

Gotta love the fiscal conservatives running this joint, so much better than those damn financially illiterate libtards.

Wait, what? Are you saying fiscal conservatives exist? I was dang sure they were extinct.

 

[SAJ-99]

There is obvious insider information being used to make hundreds of millions of dollars repeatedly on significant "bets" for the upcoming price movement up/down of stocks, bonds and oil. Bets are placed then the President makes a tweet or comment to the Press and the prices move so the bets are huge winners.

You are not building wealth since you are not tipped off with the insider information and your family may have actually been harmed since bets are a net zero game. For someone to win a crooked bet, someone else lost.

People should go to prison yet how many of us, after watching so few criminals face convictions after the 2008 market crisis, think even one person will be punished? This is our new normal. I feel as though we have circled back in time when Americans were cheering on the exploits of John Dillinger as well as Bonnie and Clyde. Breaking laws with a wink then plausible denial allows us to feel like we are part of the winning, too, though is actually at our own family's detriment as inflation and reduction of government services become apparent.

My level of consumer confidence is down so have throttled back discretionary spending by $10,000s for the rest of this year. Not because I have to tighten the belt but I would like more certainty over how the economy will perform the next three years of this presidential term. Stagflation is a threat with a possible Fed increase in interest rates the next prudent move. I have doubts the incoming Fed Chairman will act prudently as a Fed rate cut will boost the economy though a few months later turbo-charge inflation which already has the tailwinds of the rising oil "tax" hitting every item that gets transported before you buy it. If oil is used to make the item such as fertilizer or diesel then even more oil "tax" hits your wallet.

My level of investor confidence is down until we extract ourselves from these new wars and the inflation eases along with employment levels getting healthier. Long-term confidence is bullish.

I am once again fully invested after two years where had a significant chunk of cash on the sideline as a result of a home sale and what was my final 18-months of take home pay before retired. Bought some real estate last fall to hopefully perform well if inflation heats up the next few years. The rest was deployed starting last December via four monthly buys of a mix of low-fee big-bucket EFTs, TIPS and a 7-year bond ladder.

I look forward to the stock market being boring again. Now that I am fully invested again, I will exert no effort to check investment valuations except at the end of each month as update a spreadsheet of our asset holdings. I was never a trader. Never much of a casino visitor, either. Happy to tap out singles in the market rather than swing for the fences. I am a smart person but I was in grad school with much sharper people who I trust will see grandslam opportunities before I could. Or, they get a tip from the Whitehouse.

This has happened numerous times over the last year, particularly on tariff TACOs. Glad someone else is noticing. Unfortunately it is not the SEC.

 

[Big Sky Guy]

This has happened numerous times over the last year, particularly on tariff TACOs. Glad someone else is noticing. Unfortunately it is not the SEC.


View attachment 404680

I saw a similar post in regards to Polymarket about the ceasefire. So apparently it’s legal to bet with insider information but not trade? Pretty messed up we can make bets to make money on wars that involve humans dying IMO.

 

[Irrelevant]

Wait, what? Are you saying fiscal conservatives exist? I was dang sure they were extinct.

I've certainly met plenty of them both here and in person.

I saw a similar post in regards to Polymarket about the ceasefire. So apparently it’s legal to bet with insider information but not trade? Pretty messed up we can make bets to make money on wars that involve humans dying IMO.

It'll keep happening until the masses revolt

 

[SAJ-99]

I saw a similar post in regards to Polymarket about the ceasefire. So apparently it’s legal to bet with insider information but not trade? Pretty messed up we can make bets to make money on wars that involve humans dying IMO.

I'm not even sure it is illegal. If Mike Johnson or other member of Congress is making those trades, or bets, it is ok. I am sure someone is taking advantage of a public position with little interest serving the public. There are a lot of 20-something staffers in DC that have to think about their future careers after this mess is over. It is probably more comforting when the checking account has a nice cushion.

It'll keep happening until the masses revolt

Patiently waiting for people to realize they are being taken advantage of has been losers game.

 

[Bonasababy]

I'm not even sure it is illegal. If Mike Johnson or other member of Congress is making those trades, or bets, it is ok. I am sure someone is taking advantage of a public position with little interest serving the public. There are a lot of 20-something staffers in DC that have to think about their future careers after this mess is over. It is probably more comforting when the checking account has a nice cushion.


Patiently waiting for people to realize they are being taken advantage of has been losers game.

Well again I think we have reason to hope. Just today saw in the news another very red district was flipped blue by a young Dem. In the orange one's home district.

Probably all those fake mail in ballots...

Will the new folks be enough to change the problems that both sides have not been interested in solving is a fair question though.

 

[SAJ-99]

I'm not even sure it is illegal.

Given the article below, I'm a little more sure now that it isn't. Now I have to be concerned that corporations are saving us from Congressional corruption. This is dystopian.

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/23/kalshi-prediction-markets-insider-trading-ban

 

[noharleyyet]

 

[Bonasababy]

Question is when things can start...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/which-firms-will-clean-up-after-iran-war-is-finally-over-2026-03-25/

 

[SAJ-99]

View attachment 404690

I worry about you after she leaves. Hopefully you have a replacement?

 

[Bonasababy]

Huge precedent setting settlement against social media giants Meta and Google is coming.

 

[noharleyyet]

I worry about you after she leaves. Hopefully you have a replacement?

I'm fully confident California has a prudent succession strategy.

 

[Foxtrot1]

Can't really say what this means as far as long term implications, but the forest industry is in free fall in the wood basket of the world. Just lost another large mill in the region yesterday. In meetings with dealers, they expect equipment foreclosures to skyrocket in the next 60 days. Everyone always talks about farmers having it tough, but there's usually lots of hand outs to help. The forest industry gets passed over when its time for Uncle Sam to "help". I dont think anyone has a plan to get thru this, they are just standing back and watching the dominos fall.

 

[Bonasababy]

Can't really say what this means as far as long term implications, but the forest industry is in free fall in the wood basket of the world. Just lost another large mill in the region yesterday. In meetings with dealers, they expect equipment foreclosures to skyrocket in the next 60 days. Everyone always talks about farmers having it tough, but there's usually lots of hand outs to help. The forest industry gets passed over when its time for Uncle Sam to "help". I dont think anyone has a plan to get thru this, they are just standing back and watching the dominos fall.

Well in my state we've been flooding the market with wood at the behest of the industry, which drives the price down for them...at the expense of residents, taxpayers, and habitat.

Broader market factors are in play as well but the immediate problem is the reckoning thats coming from offering so much at an unsustainable supply level.

 

[SAJ-99]

Can't really say what this means as far as long term implications, but the forest industry is in free fall in the wood basket of the world. Just lost another large mill in the region yesterday. In meetings with dealers, they expect equipment foreclosures to skyrocket in the next 60 days. Everyone always talks about farmers having it tough, but there's usually lots of hand outs to help. The forest industry gets passed over when its time for Uncle Sam to "help". I dont think anyone has a plan to get thru this, they are just standing back and watching the dominos fall.

Staffing issues? That has been a common theme in a lot of industries and timber is certainly a tough job. There was significant excess capacity in 2024. Prices reacted accordingly. I'm not a fan of government intervention/assistance, but we have tariffed Canadian lumber for 40 years and it still dominates. They can cut logs cheaper than we can. I also think there is a US government loan program available for mills. The souther pine industry has a lot of large investment funds involved and they run pretty lean. The only real solution is the same with every other industry. Get as big as you can to build scale, squeeze workers wages and try to charge customers more. Anyone who has spent time in a NF will see the previous runs at extracting timber. Change is perpetual. Also, a quick search shows other firms expanding capacity. Very location dependent.