Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[SAJ-99]

Pick this one apart.

Iridium Communications (IRDM). It's well below it's 200 day, down 34% this year, but has a PE of 18, pays a solid 3% dividend. They have government contracts and just announced an additional partnership with Qualcomm. Forecasts are indicating earnings growth.

Well IRDM didn’t work out. Hope you avoided.

Steam came off DFLi fast. Back to being a non-steaming pile.

 

[jryoung]

Well IRDM didn’t work out. Hope you avoided.

Steam came off DFLi fast. Back to being a non-steaming pile.

Couldn't get comfortable with it, can't get comfortable with much right now.

 

[Bonasababy]

Some new highs in the stock market.

Big layoffs being announced. Inflation up, national debt up to staggering numbers...much of the market driving by one thing that's drawing more and more negative public attention....

IMO if ever there was a time to pull back and worry...

 

[Flatrock]

I believe it has to get to $40 before I'm at break even. Crazier shit has happen in the market before. Never say never!

Bighorn!!!!!!!! You're back! Where ya been?

 

[antelopedundee]

Anyone have a position in Arista Networks ANET? Currently about $157. What are the odds it can run to $200+? Broadcom AVGO and Crowdstrike CRWD have been very very good TO ME! ANET too, but I'm contemplation increasing my position in it. Looking to snag at least $50K more from it.

 

[Bonasababy]

Interesting Reuters chart.

 

[SAJ-99]

Anyone have a position in Arista Networks ANET? Currently about $157. What are the odds it can run to $200+? Broadcom AVGO and Crowdstrike CRWD have been very very good TO ME! ANET too, but I'm contemplation increasing my position in it. Looking to snag at least $50K more from it.

ANET time frame? Earnings are next week. Options pricing in 13.25% chance of hitting by the end of November. But that will change on earnings regardless of what happens.

I don't like the chart. At 2 std dev upper band on declining volume. It is expensive and will be hard to meet what appears priced in. Lot's of names like this one though and this market finds something to be enthusiastic about every day.

 

[antelopedundee]

ANET time frame? Earnings are next week. Options pricing in 13.25% chance of hitting by the end of November. But that will change on earnings regardless of what happens.

I don't like the chart. At 2 std dev upper band on declining volume. It is expensive and will be hard to meet what appears priced in. Lot's of names like this one though and this market finds something to be enthusiastic about every day.

I don't want to put $200 per share into something that has a mere 10% upside. Then again some of these price targets are all over the map or just too low. IIRC the price target for ANET was something around $120, but ran up into the $140s. Under the guidance of the Orange Messiah it got beaten back to $65. I'm still kicking myself for not snagging 3,000 shares back then, but who knew how far it could drop. I'm pondering cashing out some small positions and redeploying those funds into a larger position of something different. Nvidia and ANET are high on my radar. I'd be very happy if either hit $300 within a year.

 

[SAJ-99]

I don't want to put $200 per share into something that has a mere 10% upside. Then again some of these price targets are all over the map or just too low. IIRC the price target for ANET was something around $120, but ran up into the $140s. Under the guidance of the Orange Messiah it got beaten back to $65. I'm still kicking myself for not snagging 3,000 shares back then, but who knew how far it could drop. I'm pondering cashing out some small positions and redeploying those funds into a larger position of something different. Nvidia and ANET are high on my radar. I'd be very happy if either hit $300 within a year.

I should have been more clear. The option implied vol puts the odds of $200 by the end of Nov at 15%. You have to remember that is a band, so $200 is the upside, while the mirror is $130. Closed at $162 today. If it hits $200, that is over 20% from current price. I wouldn't trust any price target. Analyst are having a hard time keeping up - which is a flash red warning sign. I can just say look at the option market. It is pricing in a move of about 9% or $15 (up or down) on earnings.

Seems everyone is looking for lottery tickets these day. I would love something I had a relatively confident 10% upside a year from now. Right now I can't find much that isn't a coin flip between +10% or -30% except maybe energy stocks. Even gold and silver lost 10%+ in a heartbeat.

 

[antelopedundee]

I should have been more clear. The option implied vol puts the odds of $200 by the end of Nov at 15%. You have to remember that is a band, so $200 is the upside, while the mirror is $130. Closed at $162 today. If it hits $200, that is over 20% from current price. I wouldn't trust any price target. Analyst are having a hard time keeping up - which is a flash red warning sign. I can just say look at the option market. It is pricing in a move of about 9% or $15 (up or down) on earnings.

Seems everyone is looking for lottery tickets these day. I would love something I had a relatively confident 10% upside a year from now. Right now I can't find much that isn't a coin flip between +10% or -30% except maybe energy stocks. Even gold and silver lost 10%+ in a heartbeat.

The biggest worry is will it recover after a down turn. Lots of folks say it will come back however that's not a guarantee. After CRWD got kicked in the nads over that airline delay incident, it's now more than doubled from that low.

Maybe should have added to my positions in GOOGL and AMZN.