Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[LopeHunter]

Helleva ride! Did we accomplish anything?

Rising Inflation? Rising unemployment? Economic contraction? Less trust from other countries including those generally aligned with our economic and military goals? Boosting China's ability to claim are a reliable trading partner?

But, sure, if go back far enough is a wash on S&P 500 valuation. That is the metric that counts, right, not whether your neighbor lost her job or your son can't relocate out of state for that great job opportunity because the new mortgage will be twice the rate of the mortgage from 5 years ago. The slowing housing market means might not be able to unload the house with the lower mortgage, anyway.

Tossing a tariff pebble in the pond creates a lot of ripples. Those ripples are more than merely the value of your 401K. I look forward to better odds in 2026 for my hunt applications that require significant upfront payment to play the game. Drew a nice mountain goat tag when the 2008 economic shock hit the wallets of applicants. Odds got significantly better year over year.

 

[GearJunky]

What are you looking to buy next?

Commercial real estate (no joke)...so just get ready for it all to crash and burn.

 

[Rie Bread]

Commercial real estate (no joke)...so just get ready for it all to crash and burn.

Man I thought about pulling the IRA and Roth, paying the penalties and sinking it into a 1/4 acre lot

 

[ismith]

Pace yourselves, only 1,361 days to go.

 

[npaden]

Well, I thought there was going to be a bounce back a few weeks ago that didn't happen, but looks like things have more than bounced back now. I'm back in the black for the year on my 401k and looks like that will improve more after today.

Not sure I understand the fundamentals and if you walk it all back the tariffs in place now are still quite a bit more than they were before all this started but somehow the market has seemed to accept it and now looking at earnings and so far so good.

I did not expect to be back to even this quickly for sure after the bloodbath the first couple days after the announcement.

 

[Treeshark]

I'm back in the black for the year on my 401k and looks like that will improve more after today.

You’re doing very well- S&P still down over 5% YTD, even more if you go back to November. I agree that it has been a nice relief the past few weeks.

 

[rogerthat]

You guys expecting it to hold? I’m not but I’m like a broken clock on predicting the market

 

[TOGIE]

You guys expecting it to hold?

nope

 

[JAG]

Yeah, possibly, but I'm not one to hit my thumb with a hammer on purpose just because it seems unavoidable to happen at some point.

Growing pains for the tallest people hurt the most. Difficult for short people to understand.

 

[SAJ-99]

You guys expecting it to hold? I’m not but I’m like a broken clock on predicting the market

SPX ATH was around 6145, low-mark from selloff was around 5000. We sit at 5640, which is pretty close to the middle. To rephrase your question, do you think they learned their lesson? I'm guessing no. To add to your prediction, the market is back to looking rich. If they could announce some deals maybe it would help, but a China deal seems a long way off, and the news today about sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil isn;t going to help. That is going to slowly bleed into economic data in the coming months. Still seems like tech/software is the place to be. Anything cyclical is a long way from where we started the year.

 

[JAG]

Still seems like tech/software is the place to be.

Yes.

GDP went down first time since 2022 due to increased imports.

Based on the average length of time trade deals take (18 mos), the US has a long road. If economic news continues to deteriorate, midterm results will shift power and could further hamstring the current administration's optimistic attempts to retool the economy.

This snapshot below makes sense, but the author could still be wrong about a recession prediction in 2025 at 90%:

Trade Negotiations Take Time - Apollo Academy

It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal, see chart below. Why does...

www.apolloacademy.com

 

[brymoore]

You guys expecting it to hold? I’m not but I’m like a broken clock on predicting the market

Nada

 

[SAJ-99]

Yes.

GDP went down first time since 2022 due to increased imports.

Based on the average length of time trade deals take (18 mos), the US has a long road. If economic news continues to deteriorate, midterm results will shift power and could further hamstring the current administration's optimistic attempts to retool the economy.

This snapshot below makes sense, but the author could still be wrong about a recession prediction in 2025 at 90%:

Trade Negotiations Take Time - Apollo Academy

It normally takes 18 months on average for the US to negotiate a trade deal, see chart below. Why does...

www.apolloacademy.com

Sure they are complex. They take even longer when the parties refuse to talk to each other. Add to the complexity that it's not clear what is being negotiated. They put tariffs on Vietnam and Vietnam quickly agree to remove all tariffs on US imports but the Admin didn't agree and made it about trade balance instead.

I stand by my view that the goal is to bring in a few billion $ so they can plug that number into the budget, assume it will continue for 10yrs so they can make it look much larger, all to help offset the tax-cut gift to various constituencies.

The economic data will get worse before it gets better. McDonalds has entered the chat...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonald-just-had-worst-quarter-114724387.html

 

[JAG]

With Elon's lower-than-expected cuts through DOGE, it makes me wonder how many red hands were in that pot, too.

Perhaps the next administration will expose it all and have their own version of reciprocal mayhem.

 

[SAJ-99]

With Elon's lower-than-expected cuts through DOGE, it makes me wonder how many red hands were in that pot, too.

Perhaps the next administration will expose it all and have their own version of reciprocal mayhem.

DOGE could have fired every federal employee and not come close to hitting the "target" number.

 

[MTGomer]

Sure they are complex. They take even longer when the parties refuse to talk to each other. Add to the complexity that it's not clear what is being negotiated. They put tariffs on Vietnam and Vietnam quickly agree to remove all tariffs on US imports but the Admin didn't agree and made it about trade balance instead.

I stand by my view that the goal is to bring in a few billion $ so they can plug that number into the budget, assume it will continue for 10yrs so they can make it look much larger, all to help offset the tax-cut gift to various constituencies.

The economic data will get worse before it gets better. McDonalds has entered the chat...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonald-just-had-worst-quarter-114724387.html

I know that there’s a lot I don’t understand but our leadership complaining about the USA having an “imbalance” with a poor county has to be scapegoating.

A rich country imports more things from a poor country filled with textile factories than the poor country imports from the rich country that makes almost nothing cheaply. Say it ain’t so.

 

[JAG]

I know that there’s a lot I don’t understand but our leadership complaining about the USA having an “imbalance” with a poor county has to be scapegoating.

A rich country imports more things from a poor country filled with textile factories than the poor country imports from the rich country that makes almost nothing cheaply. Say it ain’t so.

That is an excellent objection. In short, tariffs are the tool the US is using to 'balance trade'. The stated intent is to get others to lower their tariffs on us; leverage removal of bans against our products, negotiate purchase of more US products, and (as they said) leverage changes in labor practices.

 

[SAJ-99]

I know that there’s a lot I don’t understand but our leadership complaining about the USA having an “imbalance” with a poor county has to be scapegoating.

A rich country imports more things from a poor country filled with textile factories than the poor country imports from the rich country that makes almost nothing cheaply. Say it ain’t so.

You pretty much got it. It gets even better though. One of the top items Vietnam imports from US...wait for it...cotton1 So yep, we ship them cotton which they turn into clothes and ship back to us. I can't wait to see what Vietnam agrees to buy to balance that out.

The market is confused, but mostly laughing at this point. It hasn't reacted to anyone in the Admin saying anything for over a week.

 

[mtmiller]

In short, tariffs are the tool the US is using to 'balance trade'. The stated intent is to get others to lower their tariffs on us; leverage removal of bans against our products, negotiate purchase of more US products, and (as they said) leverage changes in labor practices.

Remember his first term when it was based on fentanyl and illegal aliens for China, Mexico and Canada?

Oops, bad math. That was 90 days ago.

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China

ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[ismith]

Remember his first term when it was based on fentanyl and illegal aliens for China, Mexico and Canada?

Oops, bad math. That was 90 days ago.

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China

ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency

www.whitehouse.gov

Are you angry or happy about this?