Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

I remain sitting on a pile of cash. Some say time in the market vs market timing though timing a falling knife is where we are, imho. I will let if fall a bit more. If we are not on the start of a year-long recession that the Fed Res had to manage while also addressing inflation then I will eat my last Moon Pie saved from my 1978 visit to Graceland.

I predicted August as when could begin to buy back in to stocks. I will do so in 4 to 6 chunks 3-5 weeks apart. August, as noted before, is based on walking back 6 months from when expect economic recovery to launch. Post mid-terms, Congress is going to be unable to pass a National Donut Day proclamation much less nominal legislation that would get signed by the President until March 2025.

I would put my idle cash to work today but I do not gamble on leverage so avoid options and have enough real estate. I picked up some nice things for the house during 2009-10 when people were dumping what they previously viewed as items they deserved yet when the cash flow cratered at their household they reconsidered if they actually needed that amazing BBQ or side by side or rolling cabinet tool set or custom mountain rifle, etc. I look forward to less volatile markets but we are not there yet as leadership inside gov and private companies are still encountering things not seen for decades such as 10% inflation (rising rents are not in the current number as rent change lags by design), pandemic-fueled supply chain @#)(#-ups, interest rates headed to pre-2000 highs, trillions USD still out in the money supply that has to be destroyed the next 36 months, severe disconnect in skills of unemployed vs. skills needed at open jobs, on and on. Bluntly, the trusted playbook of 2010-2019 is still guiding "gut" instinct because many of the decision-makers simply were not yet adults when we had double-digit inflation last, etc.

Lots of bumbling going on including stable coin crypto, start-up companies discovering down rounds exist as do earlier investors, timid layoffs at cash-flow negative companies, inventory management at retail companies, on and on.

As for my stocks, when do I think I will next see a increase in value over Oct 2021? Not sure. Not worried. As a long-term holder I am playing with House money when saw returns over 7% for a decade plus. I predict will take 6 more years to get back to end of 2021 values so July 2028. From mid-2000 to mid-2014, there was not real growth in stock value. 14 years. Diversify or guard that single basket of eggs like a Spartan.
 
I remain sitting on a pile of cash. Some say time in the market vs market timing though timing a falling knife is where we are, imho. I will let if fall a bit more. If we are not on the start of a year-long recession that the Fed Res had to manage while also addressing inflation then I will eat my last Moon Pie saved from my 1978 visit to Graceland.

I predicted August as when could begin to buy back in to stocks. I will do so in 4 to 6 chunks 3-5 weeks apart. August, as noted before, is based on walking back 6 months from when expect economic recovery to launch. Post mid-terms, Congress is going to be unable to pass a National Donut Day proclamation much less nominal legislation that would get signed by the President until March 2025.

I would put my idle cash to work today but I do not gamble on leverage so avoid options and have enough real estate. I picked up some nice things for the house during 2009-10 when people were dumping what they previously viewed as items they deserved yet when the cash flow cratered at their household they reconsidered if they actually needed that amazing BBQ or side by side or rolling cabinet tool set or custom mountain rifle, etc. I look forward to less volatile markets but we are not there yet as leadership inside gov and private companies are still encountering things not seen for decades such as 10% inflation (rising rents are not in the current number as rent change lags by design), pandemic-fueled supply chain @#)(#-ups, interest rates headed to pre-2000 highs, trillions USD still out in the money supply that has to be destroyed the next 36 months, severe disconnect in skills of unemployed vs. skills needed at open jobs, on and on. Bluntly, the trusted playbook of 2010-2019 is still guiding "gut" instinct because many of the decision-makers simply were not yet adults when we had double-digit inflation last, etc.

Lots of bumbling going on including stable coin crypto, start-up companies discovering down rounds exist as do earlier investors, timid layoffs at cash-flow negative companies, inventory management at retail companies, on and on.

As for my stocks, when do I think I will next see a increase in value over Oct 2021? Not sure. Not worried. As a long-term holder I am playing with House money when saw returns over 7% for a decade plus. I predict will take 6 more years to get back to end of 2021 values so July 2028. From mid-2000 to mid-2014, there was not real growth in stock value. 14 years. Diversify or guard that single basket of eggs like a Spartan.
Ugh... that strategy sounds like work. How am I supposed to orchestrate that while taking a poop?
 
It is going to be really interesting to see a potential recession (some claim it is already here but I'm not seeing it yet) coming right on the heels of the highest inflation in over 50 years.

I also used 2009 as a buying opportunity across the board and it just doesn't seem like that is going to happen here. The economy just doesn't seem to have as many real issues other than some supply issues and inflation and both are hopefully going to get under control in the near future.

Technically we may have a recession as things fall back from record prices, but I think it won't be like 2009 when things were selling at 30 and 40 percent discounts.

I'm still shopping for stuff to add to my new land in Colorado and there just isn't anything out there. We averaged giving about 12% pay raises this year and several employees were disappointed with a 12% raise.

I will be happy with things just flattening out for a bit. If that is technically a recession then I think that's what is going to happen.
 
There is talk of a recession, and the stock market reacts to any data that might increase the chance, but it really matters how we define recession. Technical deifintion is two quarters negative real GDP. But we could see that in the next print (Q1 real GDP was negative), but that is because inflation is so high. So the key seems to be inflation...and commodities are rolling over. All the grains, cotton, etc. see chart below. Are commodities telling us that inflation is turning?

3 yr weekly price of Copper and Lumber futures

Screen Shot 2022-06-30 at 12.03.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-06-30 at 12.01.41 PM.png
 
There is talk of a recession, and the stock market reacts to any data that might increase the chance, but it really matters how we define recession. Technical deifintion is two quarters negative real GDP. But we could see that in the next print (Q1 real GDP was negative), but that is because inflation is so high. So the key seems to be inflation...and commodities are rolling over. All the grains, cotton, etc. see chart below. Are commodities telling us that inflation is turning?

3 yr weekly price of Copper and Lumber futures

View attachment 228161

View attachment 228162
This is the exact question I have been mulling. Is it a dip buying opportunity? or a peak?? I added to my only O&G position on the dip for a trading profit but that may end up being a mistake as well as possibly should have taken profits in the commodity group as well. There is a sheet load of cash out there but will people spend it?
 
12% raises!? Are you hiring 😉.
Trying to! About 7 empty positions we are trying to fill.

The person who was unhappy started right out of college in August of 2020 at $46,950 and now will be making $68,350 starting July 1, 2022. Not quite 2 years and they are up $21,400 for an increase of 45.5%. We were a bit low on our beginning salary and have raised that to $53,950 now, but still they are up $14,400 over that with just 2 years experience.

We pay bonuses too! LOL.

I read an article not too long ago that reported that based on a poll of college students, the majority of them expected to make more than $100,000 as their starting salary right out of college.

We are working hard to find qualified entry level employees across the CPA profession.
 
Trying to! About 7 empty positions we are trying to fill.

The person who was unhappy started right out of college in August of 2020 at $46,950 and now will be making $68,350 starting July 1, 2022. Not quite 2 years and they are up $21,400 for an increase of 45.5%. We were a bit low on our beginning salary and have raised that to $53,950 now, but still they are up $14,400 over that with just 2 years experience.

I read an article not too long ago that reported that based on a poll of college students, the majority of them expected to make more than $100,000 as their starting salary right out of college.

We are working hard to find qualified entry level employees across the CPA profession.
Apparently IT was the wrong field to get into!
 
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I read an article not too long ago that reported that based on a poll of college students, the majority of them expected to make more than $100,000 as their starting salary right out of college.
Holy crap kids coming up are out to lunch. You would think with all that education they would be smarter.
 
Oil market is fugly today. Inflation peak in or a pause in the action?
Not just energy, basically all commodities are rolling over (or continuing the pattern today from my post a few days ago). It shows the amount of speculation in these markets and the fickleness of the narrative. Now Everyone rushing to lock in gains and declare themselves geniuses.
 
pissyourpantsaggresively-society.gif
 
When you graduate with a few hundred thousand in student loans, you gotta expect that you're getting something in return right?

No business should have to pay for the fact that someone was dumb enough to take over 100k in loans to go school. Even now there are plenty of ways to get useful degrees and have very little if any student debt.

Also, that college degree is worth less now these days, and just from experience most employers dont put that degree in nearly as much regard as experience.

Also, factor in car payment? Are you kidding me? Buy something cheap that you can afford. You dont get to live the lap of luxury as a 22 year old accountant. Most of us had to save up our money to buy nice things. I'm fairly confident our own randy newburg worked his butt off to afford the nice things he has.

My first job in the software development world after I got out of the marines was 30k a year salary, best I could get after a finishing my associates degree, being 24, Married, and with a kiddo. Yea its hard, suck it up and figure out how to make money in the real world.

CPA is probably different just from some talks with friends of mine. The school the degree came from does matter a bit in large corporations.

But if your dumb enough to go to UCLA and get a degree in gender studies.... good luck buttercup.

I'm sorry but this is how businesses either go out of business, or ship off jobs overseas. Well that and greed of executives wanting to thicken up those pockets. We screwed up in not promoting trade work and promoting going to college straight out of high school and having not a clue what they want to study.
 
Check home prices, vehicle prices, fuel prices, food prices, rent prices and student loan debt...out to lunch?

Not hardly.
Yep.
Trying to! About 7 empty positions we are trying to fill.

The person who was unhappy started right out of college in August of 2020 at $46,950 and now will be making $68,350 starting July 1, 2022. Not quite 2 years and they are up $21,400 for an increase of 45.5%. We were a bit low on our beginning salary and have raised that to $53,950 now, but still they are up $14,400 over that with just 2 years experience.

We pay bonuses too! LOL.

I read an article not too long ago that reported that based on a poll of college students, the majority of them expected to make more than $100,000 as their starting salary right out of college.

We are working hard to find qualified entry level employees across the CPA profession.
Question is was 28K reasonable in 1980 as a starting salary?
 
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