Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[huntandfly]

i didn't say it's necessarily a typo, just surely it's a typo

i'm not gonna bet that it won't. it's just a lot further than i'd bet it would personally.

I am hoping you are the correct one haha. I exited a few positions about 2 weeks ago that weren’t yet red and I had held over a year, but I have a fair amount still in. Don’t really want to see it keep dragging down, but am positioned to take bites on the way down to improve the position long term

 

[Deleted member 16014]

@TOGIE just said Hitler is invading but I think the Chinese already took over and the gold I buried in 1927 is worth quite a bit, but I will need help finding it. Wait what thread is this?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

@TOGIE just said Hitler is invading but I think the Chinese already took over and the gold I buried in 1927 is worth quite a bit, but I will need help finding it. Wait what thread is this?

 

[Shangobango]

I just put some fertilizer on my hay fields. It’s up 90% from last year. Do you just not do it? Honestly crossed my mind

I chose not to fertilize my pastures this spring. In order to offset this decision I have opened up about 30% more of my land to grazing whereas it had been fallow for a couple of years prior. I was thinking of planting it in trees, but that won’t happen for awhile if fertilizer prices don’t stabilize or drop.

I asked this in the retirement and inflation thread, but does anyone invest in commodity EFT’s? I have been for several months and I am outperforming the stock market by quite a clip. I am just wondering if there are downsides to these commodities EFT’s that I am not thinking about. I am a very risk tolerant investor as evidenced by my past investments in commodities futures contracts, and the fact that I played poker professionally for a couple of years lol. Are their downsides besides the volatility with the EFT’s that I am missing?

 

[SAJ-99]

I chose not to fertilize my pastures this spring. In order to offset this decision I have opened up about 30% more of my land to grazing whereas it had been fallow for a couple of years prior. I was thinking of planting it in trees, but that won’t happen for awhile if fertilizer prices don’t stabilize or drop.

I asked this in the retirement and inflation thread, but does anyone invest in commodity EFT’s? I have been for several months and I am outperforming the stock market by quite a clip. I am just wondering if there are downsides to these commodities EFT’s that I am not thinking about. I am a very risk tolerant investor as evidenced by my past investments in commodities futures contracts, and the fact that I played poker professionally for a couple of years lol. Are their downsides besides the volatility with the EFT’s that I am missing?

Yes. Like everything in love, there is a downside. The problem with them is they invest in futures and have to roll them. Sometimes that helps if the term structure is in backwardation (current market price is higher than the futures price) and sometimes it hurts if the term structure is in contango (mp is lower than futures price). The are etfs for a lot of stuff. If you want to see the negative impact, look at a 10yr chart for UNG (nat gas, which is the basis for most fertilizer products). DBA is the big Grains etf. If you bought in 2012 at the last price spike you would still be in the red.

I guess my point is that investing in commodities is generally a bad idea because they aren’t investments. If you find a trend following fund that trades them, the results might be different.

 

[Shangobango]

Yes. Like everything in love, there is a downside. The problem with them is they invest in futures and have to roll them. Sometimes that helps if the term structure is in backwardation (current market price is higher than the futures price) and sometimes it hurts if the term structure is in contango (mp is lower than futures price). The are etfs for a lot of stuff. If you want to see the negative impact, look at a 10yr chart for UNG (nat gas, which is the basis for most fertilizer products). DBA is the big Grains etf. If you bought in 2012 at the last price spike you would still be in the red.

I guess my point is that investing in commodities is generally a bad idea because they aren’t investments. If you find a trend following fund that trades them, the results might be different.

Thanks for the reply.

I am familiar with cantango, as someone who has traded in commodities futures and options a fair bit.

I suppose it may be best to look at the commodities ETF’s as short term hedges against inflation if I am going to trade them. I have not looked at long term historic performance going that far back on the one’s that I have bought.

You mentioned two of them. Over the last 6 months they have performed very well. Several are in the high +20% range and a couple more are beating that. They have definitely helped take some of the sting out the stock market slide, for me anyway.

 

[SAJ-99]

Thanks for the reply.

I am familiar with cantango, as someone who has traded in commodities futures and options a fair bit.

I suppose it may be best to look at the commodities ETF’s as short term hedges against inflation if I am going to trade them. I have not looked at long term historic performance going that far back on the one’s that I have bought.

You mentioned two of them. Over the last 6 months they have performed very well. Several are in the high +20% range and a couple more are beating that. They have definitely helped take some of the sting out the stock market slide, for me anyway.

I get it. If you are in them during the run they can be very helpful to the portfolio. Timing is everything. DBA was dead money for 10yrs. Im not sure I would advise buying now. These kinds of runs have historically been more of a top than a buying opportunity. But to each their own.

 

[schmalts]

This keeps getting uglier. Makes me wonder if a dot.com bubble type of burst is in progress. To those who have said that this is just a blip and have the attitude the market will always keep going up are you ready if you are wrong? The feds seem determined to raise rates until the inflation eases and if it crushes stocks in the progress they do not care. Like I said in the past, anyone younger than 50 probably never really dealt with a big rate increase before.

 

[Cheesehead]

This keeps getting uglier. Makes me wonder if a dot.com bubble type of burst is in progress. To those who have said that this is just a blip and have the attitude the market will always keep going up are you ready if you are wrong? The feds seem determined to raise rates until the inflation eases and if it crushes stocks in the progress they do not care. Like I said in the past, anyone younger than 50 probably never really dealt with a big rate increase before.

Yep. Next stop, Japan.

 

[stealthy_bowman]

This keeps getting uglier. Makes me wonder if a dot.com bubble type of burst is in progress. To those who have said that this is just a blip and have the attitude the market will always keep going up are you ready if you are wrong? The feds seem determined to raise rates until the inflation eases and if it crushes stocks in the progress they do not care. Like I said in the past, anyone younger than 50 probably never really dealt with a big rate increase before.

This is definitely not just a blip, rather it’s likely to be a protracted bear market. That said, long-term there is no reason to bet against the USA and this period too will eventually be viewed as a buying opportunity…

 

[Treeshark]

As much as it sucks to watch balances just getting destroyed, can’t help but look at the bright side- I love a good sale.

If I was 55+, I wouldn’t be enjoying this at all right now. Sucks bad and I feel for those nearing retirement as the cost of everything skyrocketing gives them a double-whammy.

Unfortunately, I think much of this pain is necessary and won’t be over quickly. Time to buckle up for a while and keep an eye out for opportunity.

 

[schmalts]

This is definitely not just a blip, rather it’s likely to be a protracted bear market. That said, long-term there is no reason to bet against the USA and this period too will eventually be viewed as a buying opportunity…

Yes, but this is an opportunity for the younger crown to learn to pay attention to what a P/E ratio is. I say this because my 20 year old son was playing the meme stock crap when I was warning him about what can happen. The tech stock bubble was a result of a lot of disregard to the P/E and when most tech stocks pay little or zero dividends they will get hammered during a downturn or rate hike. If you have a stock with a P/E of 6 and pays a div of 4-10% there is no way those stocks will suffer as bad as times like this. I got caught with my pants down on a couple stocks like NVDA and APPL but I was offset by being heavy in good P/E Div stocks like OKE and SUN. I did take a risk and added some NIO late last week as I think that is a good long play as a growth stock. I am stuck with TCNNF as well, and think it is a long term play, the P/E is high but they are paying off some big purchases that are playing with that number. Time will tell.

 

[schmalts]

As much as it sucks to watch balances just getting destroyed, can’t help but look at the bright side- I love a good sale.

If I was 55+, I wouldn’t be enjoying this at all right now. Sucks bad and I feel for those nearing retirement as the cost of everything skyrocketing gives them a double-whammy.

Unfortunately, I think much of this pain is necessary and won’t be over quickly. Time to buckle up for a while and keep an eye out for opportunity.

You pretty much pegged my situation. Yeah it sucks big time. Your Dad and Timmy gotta be be feeling this hard as well

 

[Treeshark]

Your Dad and Timmy gotta be be feeling this hard as well

Exactly- watching guys work their ass off their whole life (you as well) and then right at the wrong time this crap happens really sucks.

I know they will both come out ok, but I still wish it wasn’t happening way more for their sake than my own.

 

[rogerthat]

I started slowly nibbling last week. Prior to that I hadn’t been able to stomach buying stocks or bonds for a year or more. It’s nice to see valuations come down. I think this downturn is setting up to be very “educational” for a whole slew of “this time it’s different” crowd. I was part of that crowd in the internet stock bust. Best education I ever received regarding markets and how they work.

I’m expecting a rip your face off rally at some point but I fully expect it to just be a dead cat bounce. Right now the market has a ton of downside bias so it’s about time for a quick nasty uptrend to flush some shorts than on to new 52 week lows. That’s my guess. I got the pandemic crash all wrong so who knows but I nailed the 2008 crash all the way down and back up. Guess we will see. I love a good crash!!

 

[Treeshark]

I did take a risk and added some NIO late last week as I think that is a good long play as a growth stock.

Frickin’ NIO… I hope you’re right. I have not been.

 

[RobG]

If I was 55+, I wouldn’t be enjoying this at all right now. Sucks bad and I feel for those nearing retirement as the cost of everything skyrocketing gives them a double-whammy.

The market has gone absolute bonkers the last 14 years and people in that “earning years” age group were primed to make a killing and retire early. Screwing that up is like dry firing on a trophy bull.

Even if you sold now it would be like missing a decent year of that streak. Don’t be bummed, count your blessings if you were in the age group that entered that run with money invested.

 

[Treeshark]

I agree with your points Rob- definitely correct info, but still wish that things continued on that path for another year or two for the sake of people I care about.

 

[schmalts]

I started slowly nibbling last week. Prior to that I hadn’t been able to stomach buying stocks or bonds for a year or more. It’s nice to see valuations come down. I think this downturn is setting up to be very “educational” for a whole slew of “this time it’s different” crowd. I was part of that crowd in the internet stock bust. Best education I ever received regarding markets and how they work.

I’m expecting a rip your face off rally at some point but I fully expect it to just be a dead cat bounce. Right now the market has a ton of downside bias so it’s about time for a quick nasty uptrend to flush some shorts than on to new 52 week lows. That’s my guess. I got the pandemic crash all wrong so who knows but I nailed the 2008 crash all the way down and back up. Guess we will see. I love a good crash!!

What worries me is if the economy tanks on top of the rate hikes. Recession will kill the market with a double whammy

 

[schmalts]

Frickin’ NIO… I hope you’re right. I have not been.

Well it looks like you hit in at the high. I lost 25% on about same amount you put in, but I'm more that double downed last week. It was nice to see that 14% up day this week. I'm hoping in a couple years this will be 3x what it is now