Anybody Buying Yet? Where’s the Bottom?

[Trial153]

If I am any indication then there is lot of cash on the sideline as well, no venue for all that of liquidity is going to cause a quite a few early jump in before the bottom. We have lot of players that cut there teeth in this bull market and that won’t wear off without some burnt hands.

 

[NEWHunter]

At some point I’m going to be putting my remaining cash to work. The way this is going, I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better. This can’t be 2008 bad (I hope), but this is definitely a recession.

The only thing I know for sure is that I’ll be buying my WY pronghorn application at the end of May - after I find out I whiffed on elk.

 

[SAJ-99]

With vix at 80, it is incredibly lucrative to find what you want to own, pick a price at a lower level and sell a put option on it. You can make 10% selling a put at a strike a couple of % lower from here on the S&P. That is insane.

 

[schmalts]

Looking for input on where and when you think bottom (or close) will be. And yes I think it can get 2008 level.... this shit is just getting real to a lot of people. I have about 18% parked in cash... wish I had more.

 

[bcar]

Looking for input on where and when you think bottom (or close) will be. And yes I think it can get 2008 level.... this shit is just getting real to a lot of people. I have about 18% parked in cash... wish I had more.

Goldman Sachs Warns S&P 500 Might Not Bottom Until 2,000

For investors asking whether Friday’s stock rally marked the bottom of the current rout, Goldman Sachs Group has an unpleasant answer: not yet.

www.bloomberg.com

Whatever this is worth...

Edit: I' not sure why the link mentions a robot? It's just a Bloomberg article.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Goldman Sachs Warns S&P 500 Might Not Bottom Until 2,000

For investors asking whether Friday’s stock rally marked the bottom of the current rout, Goldman Sachs Group has an unpleasant answer: not yet.

www.bloomberg.com

Whatever this is worth...

For those that don't want to read:

 

[SAJ-99]

Looking for input on where and when you think bottom (or close) will be. And yes I think it can get 2008 level.... this shit is just getting real to a lot of people. I have about 18% parked in cash... wish I had more.

If you know where the bottom is, you would be sitting in your Swiss villa using dollars as TP. I think a lot of people had barbelled portfolios - equities and cash. I am in a similar situation as you. You don't want to sell equities at these levels, but you don't want to buy more. When you hear the market start to look through this, to next year, that is when we stabilize and move higher. Right now, buy dips and sell rips. The recovery is looking more U than V, so we will need patience.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ree-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart?sref=rYMkp3wV

Airlines will be bankrupt in weeks. I'm not much of a socialist or a fan of restricting management decisions, but airlines seem to go bankrupt every 15 years. All that cash used to buy back stock (and most enrich senior management) would sure come in handy right now. Given it is an election year, this is going to get some airtime in coming weeks.

 

[JFish]

I’ve been following this thread because I’m uninformed in investments/stocks and the economy in general. I see the price of gold and silver has dropped quite a bit. Do any of you feel gold and silver bullion would be a good purchase in the coming weeks? I’m not adventurous enough for buying stocks etc so bullion seems prettty dumby proof for me.

 

[VikingsGuy]

I’ve been following this thread because I’m uninformed in investments/stocks and the economy in general. I see the price of gold and silver has dropped quite a bit. Do any of you feel gold and silver bullion would be a good purchase in the coming weeks? I’m not adventurous enough for buying stocks etc so bullion seems prettty dumby proof for me.

Gold hasn't played the same roll as it has in the past. I am not sure why - maybe low inflation has people more comfortable holding cash waiting for stock buy opportunities. I would say if you are an uniformed investor your worst option would be to start playing commodities (incl. gold/metals). If you are sitting on cash and can wait a few years for returns, buying S&P500 vanguard fund on a few dips might be a decent idea, but I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT meant for anybody to actually use.

 

[Sytes]

W/o getting into dividend interest models, etc... in layman terms;
When COVID-19 levels, the market will begin it's rebound.
Earnings Reports / conference have to present an outlook that holds a tangible grip. Until that happens and the unknown persists, it's speculation. Pure speculation.

To give an idea:
Walmart sells everything from medical to auto parts. The vast majority of those items are manufactured in countries most affected by COVID-19 . We speak of schools closed and telework in America... Items in Walmart are not manufactured from home.

To sum it up, once we have found a peak, once the pandemonium subsides, once we have found it's plateau --- this is when the likes of Raymond James, Jefferies, et al begin to position $$$ for the companies who's outlook project value for the $.

 

[Europe]

Gold hasn't played the same roll as it has in the past. I am not sure why - maybe low inflation has people more comfortable holding cash waiting for stock buy opportunities. I would say if you are an uniformed investor your worst option would be to start playing commodities (incl. gold/metals). If you are sitting on cash and can wait a few years for returns, buying S&P500 vanguard fund on a few dips might be a decent idea, but I am NOT a financial advisor and this is NOT meant for anybody to actually use.

The above from Vikingsguy is GOOD advise---on all points! Sytes has also given good advise and vision. Both gentlemen have made excellent points. My conversation with my daughter this a.m. was about---next year--not next month.

I have been asked about our option plays. First and foremost ---they are risky !!!!!!! Secondly, like vikings guy, I am NOT a financial advisor nor am I recommending "options", especially to someone not familiar with them.

I did advise my daughter this a.m. that

Visa was at 152 and the Jan 70 is 5.45 Are you willing to own Visa at 70 next Jan
MSFT was at 132 and the Jan 85 was at 5.20 Are you willing to own MSFT at 85 next Jan

Options are a VERY small part of our portfolio. Gold and Silver have not been "added to" in years. If you know which company, especially an OTC company that will be the first to deliver a vaccine for the Coronavirus, put a buck or two there (-:

Styles, Vikingsguy---if you have that name, pm it to me (-:

p.s. SAJ-99 posted after me, but I wanted to let those folks who had ask me know, that SAJ-99 gives good advise. These are some of the same things we ( my daughter and I ) spoke about this a.m.--like I said above we are looking as far out as next year--not next month. Why would I care about next year when the odds are I wont be here---simple, my children, grandchildren and great grandchildren will be and if there is something I can do while still above ground that will help them get a good education, I want to do that and we have set up some long term investment vehicles specifically for that purpose.

 

[SAJ-99]

W/o getting into dividend interest models, etc... in layman terms;
When COVID-19 levels, the market will begin it's rebound.
Earnings Reports / conference have to present an outlook that holds a tangible grip. Until that happens and the unknown persists, it's speculation. Pure speculation.

To give an idea:
Walmart sells everything from medical to auto parts. The vast majority of those items are manufactured in countries most affected by COVID-19 . We speak of schools closed and telework in America... Items in Walmart are not manufactured from home.

To sum it up, once we have found a peak, once the pandemonium subsides, once we have found it's plateau --- this is when the likes of Raymond James, Jefferies, et al begin to position $$$ for the companies who's outlook project value for the $.

Agree. Right now it is purely a guessing game. One thing I can say, the market tends to overextrapolate (think the current situation will persist) - both to the upside and downside.

Here is some good news. Sunday after the Fed action I asked "why not wait until Wednesday". It was bugging me, so I did some digging. This is a little "inside baseball" of macro economics, so I will try to simplify. China is restarting its economy. This results in them buying raw materials from across the world. Almost all commodities settle in US dollars, because it is the global reserve currency. This means that China would have placed a high demand on dollars to settle the purchases. The volatility had locked up dollar swap lines, so the Fed was concerned that China would sell US treasuries and use the dollars to settle the raw materials purchases. Selling Treasuries results in rates going up, instead of down like the Fed wants. So...The Fed cut rates and announced asset purchases, but it also increased dollar swap lines (not a big announcement because most people don't understand what it means). This as the most important action so far because it stabilized the dollar.

Beijing traffic flow is about 2/3rds normal, so things are slowly ramping up. I know a lot people say "we can't trust China data", but unfortunately it is all we have. The market is going to compare the path of reported virus data from China and apply it to the US and other countries. It will be looking at second derivative stuff, like the change in rate of change in new cases. Computers will be able to do this quickly and in real time. It is a brave new world.

 

[RobG]

something funny is going on with the small company indexes (ijs and viov). If you have a few million bucks in cash laying around and can figure out which side to be on you could make some money. Remember you heard it first here

I am not an advisor and this should not be construed as investment advice. Always consult your shaman before making large investment decisions.

 

[JFish]

Thanks for the advice. Most of this is over my head so I think I will sit this one out and stick to my normal Roth contributions. Very interesting thread though.

 

[SAJ-99]

I’ve been following this thread because I’m uninformed in investments/stocks and the economy in general. I see the price of gold and silver has dropped quite a bit. Do any of you feel gold and silver bullion would be a good purchase in the coming weeks? I’m not adventurous enough for buying stocks etc so bullion seems prettty dumby proof for me.

Some data and my $0.02. Silver has legit demand for some industrial/electrical components so about 50% of its use is tied to the economy. Gold is simply pretty. If the economy goes into a global recession (we have) you can expect demand for both to drop. A lot of Gold demand is from India and China and is seasonal, so this overwhelmed the "safe-haven" trade. Central banks are going to through a lot of money at this problem. Gold will go up if they can't extract that money fast enough and inflation sparks higher. Silver should pick up as industrial activity increase (along with copper). I will say from a technical view, silver is VERY oversold on both a weekly and daily basis.
Lots of things moving in weird ways today, even though volumes are down. Gold up 2%, Silver down 2%, hogs and cattle up big, Stocks up one minute down the next. Not for the faint of heart.

 

[VikingsGuy]

Lots of things moving in weird ways today, even though volumes are down. Gold up 2%, Silver down 2%, hogs and cattle up big, Stocks up one minute down the next. Not for the faint of heart.

My 2 cents. Lot's of opportunity for gain and loss for the true trader. Best avoided for your average saver.

 

[RobG]

FWIW, my shaman said you should have been there yesterday to take advantage of the IJS misprice. I noticed it yesterday but didn’t have several hundred thousand bucks to risk to make any good money from it.

 

[SAJ-99]

My 2 cents. Lot's of opportunity for gain and loss for the true trader. Best avoided for your average saver.

Wait until after Friday. It's triple expiration (futures, options on Futures, and regular options). It is going to be crazy as big guys try to push the prices to clear their positions.

 

[Sytes]

My 2 cents. Lot's of opportunity for gain and loss for the true trader. Best avoided for your average saver.

Thought I'd ride this toon. Sold shortly after this, will bounce down and maybe another 8 second ride.

Riding AMD as well from premarket... Likely will sell before close.

Hobby 5k play and thus far green. Just still wish I'd not sold earlier shares 20 minutes before Moderna (MRNA) announced human trials have been approved and running. Missed a fun 25% yesterday.

 

[Jmnhunter]

so should i stop or lessen my 401k contributions for awhile?