Wyoming point creep. How bad will it be for the NR elk draw this year?

[FrozenTexan]

great thread, I know my father in law and his 10 points jumped into the general draw this year splitting them with his son-in-law. Be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Big Fin]

I could see that or guys like me sitting on 10+ and will just ride the storm out a couple extra years and have the hunt I want. Plenty of opportunities to hunt if you know where to look. Wyoming for me isn’t about a opportunity I’ll pat the high price if it goes that way but the tag I’ll have will be well worth it.

I think some will do what you are doing. Especially those willing to pay the higher price in the Special starting in 2024.

I haven't run the numbers, but given how many are in the 10+ point elk layers and how few tags there are for some of the high demand units, it will be interesting to see if that only requires a couple years of waiting or ten+ years of waiting.

 

[huntin24/7]

Fingers crossed. I put in for a unit that was 9 points last year with 10 points. Pretty sure I screwed up big time by just having my brother put in last year instead of both of us burning our points and might never draw the tag now. So hard to say what will happen though. In the end,I’m glad I have enough points that I’ll at least be able to hunt elk in WY somewhere in the next few years. It’ll definitely be interesting to see what happens in may.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

I could very well be wrong, but I think the level and duration of point creep is going to leave some folks shell shocked.

 

[Southern Elk]

I don't expect huge creep in General tags; some happens every year, but I don't think it will jump in the General like it will the jump at higher demand hunts. I think the biggest creep will be in units that have taken 10+ points. I say that, based on the people I know who use one of the many tag application services. They all have double digit points. They are being advised to burn points this year.

I met a group of four at a trade show in Seattle last week. They are burning 16 points in units that don't take nearly that many. They've been advised by their application service to burn them now and they are doing that. Same as other friends. They are all burning on hunts where they are 2-4 points above what was required last year. They've been buyers for a long time and they see this as the year to actually apply.

Maybe I am only focusing the anecdotal examples. When I combine the anecdotal events with the history of what has happened in other states over the last 25 years, when big changes came, the change in folks at high point levels jumping in was at higher rates than those with lower point levels.

When you look at those application services, there are thousands and thousands of non-residents who use them. And most of the folks I know who use them have been point buyers for 10+ years. The services some of my friends use suggested they burn points last year when the rumors first started about fee increases and tag allocation changes. Not sure how many did it. Those same services are strongly suggesting these high point holder friends burn points in Wyoming this year, and not just for elk.

Whether or not my expectation holds true, I guess we will know in May.

Well, I’m screwed then.

 

[RobertD]

I could very well be wrong, but I think the level and duration of point creep is going to leave some folks shell shocked.

I agree 100%.

Most major app services are screaming burn 'em, plus we're starting to see a lot more of the "I'm out after this" commentary on forums and other places online.

I know folks are coming down from the flush-with-cash and low interest rates era of 2020-2022, but I still don't think that'll be enough to blunt what will probably be the biggest year of point creep on record. In Wyoming at least.

 

[JohnCushman]

I applied for a general with points that probably won't get me drawn that would have any other year.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I could very well be wrong, but I think the level and duration of point creep is going to leave some folks shell shocked.

I think this is just the tip of the iceberg...

 

[Deleted member 28227]

I applied for a general with points that probably won't get me drawn that would have any other year.

I'm in with a group with average of 4 I'm guessing we are around 40% of drawing.

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Most major app services are screaming burn 'em, plus we're starting to see a lot more of the "I'm out after this" commentary on forums and other places online.

Factor in the point bank totals that have been posted in the past. A lot of folks who THINK they’ll be able to burn this year won’t. My gut tells me this is going to be pushed out 5+ years before folks can fully cycle out who want to burn points and hunt.

 

[WildWill]

I just hope guys keep chasing 10+ point tags so I can keep drawing 1-4 point tags. But as the general shows those are now 1-2 a decade tags if you're lucky.

 

[TOGIE]

i feel safe at 6 points in general. gosh, i hope.

i'm more worried about how to handle my 4 antelope points. i've been hemming and hawing like crazy.

i delete and change that cell in my app planning spreadsheet almost daily. 4 is a terrible amount of antelope points. just terrible.

 

[WildWill]

I'm in with a group with average of 4 I'm guessing we are around 40% of drawing.

If you're talking regular general I think that 40% is a bit generous. Although we're all just guessing. Heard of a lot of 5 point apps this year in the regular general.

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree 100%.

Most major app services are screaming burn 'em, plus we're starting to see a lot more of the "I'm out after this" commentary on forums and other places online.

I know folks are coming down from the flush-with-cash and low interest rates era of 2020-2022, but I still don't think that'll be enough to blunt what will probably be the biggest year of point creep on record. In Wyoming at least.

I feel like it is hard to gauge anything. I thought I heard a lot of "I'm out after this" last year and there are 42,000 applicants with 1 point this year. I assume that for every person that actually drops out, there are 3 to replace them.
I did some estimating and came to about the same number at @wllm. The 4pts will be around 37%. If I could see the major app services' data, it would be interesting to see how many people are just buying points every year. I don't think any increase in tag cost is a real issue for some of the hunters that use a major app service and have bought points for 10+ years. I just can't think of a way to guess how many people that is.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

If you're talking regular general I think that 40% is a bit generous. Although we're all just guessing. Heard of a lot of 5 point apps this year in the regular general.

Every time I meet hunters in the field I and start talking I try to bring up HT and Randy... just to see if folks have heard of either.

I'm like 0 in 300.

I've never met a person who has ever heard of HT/Fresh tracks/Randy etc.

Take forum banter with a grain of salt... and just assume if it's on Rokslide it's entirely BS

 

[Deleted member 20812]

Take forum banter with a grain of salt... and just assume if it's on Rokslide it's entirely BS

But how many ounces did you save?

 

[Deleted member 28227]

But how many ounces did you save?

5oz at $1000 per ounce... but then gained 32 because apparently I need 10,000 calories a day to survive an elk hunt.

Poorer, heavier, and... a bit dumber for the experience.

 

[ccc23454]

But how many ounces did you save?

All that weight savings from Cutting that handle off my toothbrush allowed me to go 5 miles deeper, best tip ever.

 

[Nick87]

I assume that for every person that actually drops out, there are 3 to replace them.

Sure seems like it.

 

[WildWill]

Every time I meet hunters in the field I and start talking I try to bring up HT and Randy... just to see if folks have heard of either.

I'm like 0 in 300.

I've never met a person who has ever heard of HT/Fresh tracks/Randy etc.

Take forum banter with a grain of salt... and just assume if it's on Rokslide it's entirely BS

Agreed! I will add I personally know a guy burning 6 in the regular for a general this year. Point creep just seems to grow every year with no signs of slowing so I tend to be a bit of a pecimiss when calculating odds.


I met a guy on a Texas controlled hunt this year who had 12 Wyoming elk points and zero plans on burning them. I began discussing the changes possibly coming and he became very dejected and acted like he would just quit and let the points go. Crazy to build that many points with no plan I know guys do it but I can't understand it. I think we'll see more of this but if tag numbers shrink odds won't be any better.