Wyoming point creep. How bad will it be for the NR elk draw this year?

[Nick87]

I guess. Did the guy have triplets?

In the not to distant future that would be for an only child no?

 

[cgasner1]

I guess. Did the guy have triplets?

2 kids and one guy would be 3 people at 5 and you guys say that won’t draw general now

 

[SAJ-99]

2 kids and one guy would be 3 people at 5 and you guys say that won’t draw general now

It was a joke, but when our hypothetical guy started buying points 15yrs ago, he could not have foreseen the point creep. And he could have bought the kids points too. Also, i believe in the draw results, WY would show him and the kids at the 5 level, not at 15, as the party is treated as one application.

I’m sure the applicant had a good reason, I just think what it was.

 

[cgasner1]

It was a joke, but when our hypothetical guy started buying points 15yrs ago, he could not have foreseen the point creep. And he could have bought the kids points too. Also, i believe in the draw results, WY would show him and the kids at the 5 level, not at 15, as the party is treated as one application.

I’m sure the applicant had a good reason, I just think what it was.

I agree that’s probably a very far stretch but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of guys with these high points dropping back and doing party hunts like that in the general with an outfitter. Especially with the amount of guys that think the sky is falling. Wyoming can do what it wants I need it about as much as it needs me. I will kill a bull this fall I’m not worried.

 

[SAJ-99]

I agree that’s probably a very far stretch but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a lot of guys with these high points dropping back and doing party hunts like that in the general with an outfitter. Especially with the amount of guys that think the sky is falling. Wyoming can do what it wants I need it about as much as it needs me. I will kill a bull this fall I’m not worried.

You might be right. We will see a lot of all kinds of stuff.

I spent a lot of time trying to model it (the point creep in general). Every year there are a few guys that burn their high points in General. I just enjoy musing on why they would do that. If a person is 12-15yrs in, they have already spent over a $1000 in points and app fees. And the vast majority just keep buying points and not applying. I think it is best to consider this group as not price sensitive, which is the opposite of what you will read from HT'ers. This is what WYGO was betting with the price increase. There always seem to be plenty of proposals floating around - price increases, NR tag cuts, Outfitter allocation. But the trend has been pretty steady, point creep is about 0.5pt per year. I put a bunch of things in my spreadsheet and my estimate is a jump of over a point, but that would be a huge jump. So I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth. It is interesting to see that App services are saying "burn them" when that is their revenue. If their clients draw and say "I'm out" then the service will have to try to get them to apply elsewhere.

I wish I had your confidence on killing a bull.

 

[idahohuntr]

It is interesting to see that App services are saying "burn them" when that is their revenue. If their clients draw and say "I'm out" then the service will have to try to get them to apply elsewhere.

Tangential topic...but I think all these GoHunt, Huntinfool, etc. businesses are on their way out. If they were publicly traded companies...I'd be selling the stock as fast as I could. As NR opportunity starts to decline in the West (and I think its going to get pushed off a cliff in the not too distant future) there just is not going to be a market for a lot of their services.

 

[SAJ-99]

Tangential topic...but I think all these GoHunt, Huntinfool, etc. businesses are on their way out. If they were publicly traded companies...I'd be selling the stock as fast as I could. As NR opportunity starts to decline in the West (and I think its going to get pushed off a cliff in the not too distant future) there just is not going to be a market for a lot of their services.

I would bet the other way. NR license revenue funds most wildlife agencies and R prices increases are a tough sell in almost every state. That NR opportunity can only decline so much when the states need the money. It will just get more complicated and the services are useful in understanding the numbers.

 

[idahohuntr]

I would bet the other way. NR license revenue funds most wildlife agencies and R prices increases are a tough sell in almost every state. That NR opportunity can only decline so much when the states need the money. It will just get more complicated and the services are useful in understanding the numbers.

Maybe. But I think Residents of most states would gladly pay more to increase their share of tags...and I think 0-5% will be the new standard NR quota before long. Additionally, we've seen no evidence of any NR prices hitting a limit that hunters won't pay. I think in WY - they could cut quotas to 5% and just charge 2x more for tags and be revenue neutral and still sell every single tag. When it gets to be powerball like odds for NR draw tags...not thinking too many folks will need these services.

 

[DFS]

Well on our way to the kings deer.

 

[SAJ-99]

But I think Residents of most states would gladly pay more to increase their share of tags...

Please visit Montana. I think the last price increase for Rs was 2015. In 2022, the State increased the price of a preference point for NR's from $50 to $100. For $100 a R can buy pretty much a permit for everything. As much as I wish you were right, I haven't seen that willingness anywhere but on HT.

A vote to increase resident permit cost in Montana

I hear a lot of complaints regarding mtfwp management. I think that resident cost for permits doesn't match value provided. You may feel differently. I believe non resident cost is reflective of value for an our of state hunter to pay the privilege to come to montana to hunt. If we raised...

www.hunttalk.com

 

[bayoublaster7527]

I would bet the other way. NR license revenue funds most wildlife agencies and R prices increases are a tough sell in almost every state. That NR opportunity can only decline so much when the states need the money. It will just get more complicated and the services are useful in understanding the numbers.

Definitely see your point but every time someone points out how NR license revenue funds wildlife agencies the Wyoming HT caucus informs all of us whiney NR hunters that they don’t need a single cent from NR hunters…..

 

[DFS]

Please visit Montana. I think the last price increase for Rs was 2015. In 2022, the State increased the price of a preference point for NR's from $50 to $100. For $100 a R can buy pretty much a permit for everything. As much as I wish you were right, I haven't seen that willingness anywhere but on HT.

A vote to increase resident permit cost in Montana

I hear a lot of complaints regarding mtfwp management. I think that resident cost for permits doesn't match value provided. You may feel differently. I believe non resident cost is reflective of value for an our of state hunter to pay the privilege to come to montana to hunt. If we raised...

www.hunttalk.com

I don’t know of a single Montana resident hunter who wouldn’t be ok with a price increase. I think that is just propaganda being fed to us much like our record deer counts. As of right now we get the quality we pay for. Really unbelievable nonresidents keep funding us. Personally I would like to see a price increase high enough to eliminate half the nonresident licenses.

 

[idahohuntr]

Please visit Montana. I think the last price increase for Rs was 2015. In 2022, the State increased the price of a preference point for NR's from $50 to $100. For $100 a R can buy pretty much a permit for everything. As much as I wish you were right, I haven't seen that willingness anywhere but on HT.

A vote to increase resident permit cost in Montana

I hear a lot of complaints regarding mtfwp management. I think that resident cost for permits doesn't match value provided. You may feel differently. I believe non resident cost is reflective of value for an our of state hunter to pay the privilege to come to montana to hunt. If we raised...

www.hunttalk.com

I partially agree...a simple price increase on residents to fund the agency/keep up with inflation etc. is not at all popular. I bet if you floated a resident fee increase in exchange for cutting the current NR general deer quota by 80%...the money would come rolling in...if you could beat back the welfare outfitters association.

 

[cgasner1]

Tangential topic...but I think all these GoHunt, Huntinfool, etc. businesses are on their way out. If they were publicly traded companies...I'd be selling the stock as fast as I could. As NR opportunity starts to decline in the West (and I think its going to get pushed off a cliff in the not too distant future) there just is not going to be a market for a lot of their services.

I use go hunt for more than just the odds they send me notifications not to miss tag deadlines/post all the specific state information so I can refresh up on it every year before I apply. Ya I can find it all on the states individual site but honestly for the 100 bucks it’s not worth my time to run Ann the information down when they have it all right there for me.

 

[SAJ-99]

I don’t know of a single Montana resident hunter who wouldn’t be ok with a price increase. I think that is just propaganda being fed to us much like our record deer counts. As of right now we get the quality we pay for. Really unbelievable nonresidents keep funding us. Personally I would like to see a price increase high enough to eliminate half the nonresident licenses.

If you don't know of a single hunter that would be ok with an increase, you need to get out more. Or just read the thread I posted. You will "know of" plenty of residents that don't want an increase. The responses tend to fall into two categories...
1) FWP is not doing a good job so why should I pay more to them for the tag
2) Lots of Montanan's rely on game to feed their family and can't afford the increase.
#2 is my favorite because the state sells a ton of $5 doe B tags. And I know the Legislator is thinking 0 about the poor Montanans that need to feed their family. Maybe a bill to increase the fees to get rid of those slimy NRs will pass with flying colors. You know, because NRs are the real problem everywhere, but particularly in MT. (sarcasm)

 

[Neighwp]

I think the General Tag will see 1+ Point Jump. Fingers Crossed that 4.5 Points in Special will draw a general license. Some of the Limited Quota units will see 2+ Points and some will see no change from the prior year....just my $0.02

 

[brownbear932008]

Well on our way to the kings deer.

Oh we are already there my friend in many ways.

 

[brownbear932008]

I use go hunt for more than just the odds they send me notifications not to miss tag deadlines/post all the specific state information so I can refresh up on it every year before I apply. Ya I can find it all on the states individual site but honestly for the 100 bucks it’s not worth my time to run Ann the information down when they have it all right there for me.

Is it still gonna be worth it when you can't draw a tag is the real question? This will smack many in the face in the near future I'm afraid.

 

[cgasner1]

Is it still gonna be worth it when you can't draw a tag is the real question? This will smack many in the face in the near future I'm afraid.

If all your using is Gohunt or a similar thing your not thinking outside the box plenty of tags to be had if you look in the right places

 

[Nick87]

It was a joke, but when our hypothetical guy started buying points 15yrs ago, he could not have foreseen the point creep. And he could have bought the kids points too. Also, i believe in the draw results, WY would show him and the kids at the 5 level, not at 15, as the party is treated as one application.

I’m sure the applicant had a good reason, I just think what it was.

Been thinking about this a lot over the last couple days with three boys as a NR. Might not be too far fetched after my next tag is drawn. Sharing camp in a general unit with them> any LQ I could ever draw in several lifetimes. How hard will it be to draw a general tag as a NR in say 15 or 20 years. Lot of food for thought.