Wyoming point creep. How bad will it be for the NR elk draw this year?

[Kevin W]

Been thinking about this a lot over the last couple days with three boys as a NR. Might not be too far fetched after my next tag is drawn. Sharing camp in a general unit with them> any LQ I could ever draw in several lifetimes. How hard will it be to draw a general tag as a NR in say 15 or 20 years. Lot of food for thought.

My two boys and I are all sitting around 8 or 9 points for antelope, elk and deer (I put in for a LE Elk tag this year). My sons are 20 and 22. I figure / hope over the next 10 years I will be able to go or go with one of them on single tag hunts in decent units. Time will tell.

 

[rmyoung1]

Tangential topic...but I think all these GoHunt, Huntinfool, etc. businesses are on their way out. If they were publicly traded companies...I'd be selling the stock as fast as I could. As NR opportunity starts to decline in the West (and I think its going to get pushed off a cliff in the not too distant future) there just is not going to be a market for a lot of their services.

I started wondering about that, as well. If states curtail NR hunting opportunity in order to appease their resident stakeholders, those app services are going to have to reinvent or reimagine their services. I guess in many ways they already have with mapping platforms, gear shops, etc

 

[Deleted member 28227]

So how many of you guys that think just buying points is crazy put money into your 401k? I know I wanna retire some day just don’t know when or how much I’ll need but I have to put it away. Just like I know some day I wanna hunt Wyoming so I have to buy the points. It may be awhile till I use them because the unit I wanted may be going general. I’m kinda on the opposite end of this where I think the general will see a huge jump but in a couple of years I’ll be able to get a better tag because of the people going into general. I bet the surprise will be people dumping mass points to party hunt with a outfitter on general

Soooo lotta issues with that comparison.

My 2 cents lots of idiots buy CO bear points, it’s the stupidest draw in the country, all the best bear units are OTC, none require more than ~3 save one. That unit is 851 there are 1-2 NR tags a year and there are like 800+ folks with a pile of points. It’s also not some Mecca of BC bears.

Dudes with 20 points in a state where the best opportunity is an OTC unit.

Point being people are stupid.

 

[cgasner1]

Soooo lotta issues with that comparison.

My 2 cents lots of idiots buy CO bear points, it’s the stupidest draw in the country, all the best bear units are OTC, none require more than ~3 save one. That unit is 851 there are 1-2 NR tags a year and there are like 800+ folks with a pile of points. It’s also not some Mecca of BC bears.

Dudes with 20 points in a state where the best opportunity is an OTC unit.

Point being people are stupid.

Not gonna argue people’s iq on the internet but I do know points aren’t as black and white as some people make it out to be

 

[Khunter]

Soooo lotta issues with that comparison.

My 2 cents lots of idiots buy CO bear points, it’s the stupidest draw in the country, all the best bear units are OTC, none require more than ~3 save one. That unit is 851 there are 1-2 NR tags a year and there are like 800+ folks with a pile of points. It’s also not some Mecca of BC bears.

Dudes with 20 points in a state where the best opportunity is an OTC unit.

Point being people are stupid.

ahem!
I am not “stupid” in the classic sense. Foolhardy, sure. Well aware of our bear situation. As I say, when they start up pref points for skunk, I am buying—cuz you can’t know for sure when/if you will be jonesing for a skunk hunt.

 

[cgasner1]

ahem!
I am not “stupid” in the classic sense. Foolhardy, sure. Well aware of our bear situation. As I say, when they start up pref points for skunk, I am buying—cuz you can’t know for sure when/if you will be jonesing for a skunk hunt.
View attachment 264536

We should party up I hear the otc in it s are fire

 

[Deleted member 28227]

ahem!
I am not “stupid” in the classic sense. Foolhardy, sure. Well aware of our bear situation. As I say, when they start up pref points for skunk, I am buying—cuz you can’t know for sure when/if you will be jonesing for a skunk hunt.
View attachment 264536

...

I guess I'm kinda an a-hole in the classic sense... "stupid" wasn't a tactful phrasing, my apologies.

Let me re-phrase... Colorado Bear is an example of NR buying points because either they are just buying them to have points and not acutally under standing the system or how they would use them, or in the case of a few being incredibly optimistic about their chances.



But hey the draw gods seem to be with you, if you ever do draw 851 I'd love to help pack your bear out of a hell hole.


The CO bear issue is a great extreme example of the preference point buyers/ folks jumping in situation that @Big Fin has brought up a bunch with regard to WY.

So in your case for CO bear... you are a R so it's a bit different but let's say you were a NR.

851 was drawn with 20 pts in 2022
61 was drawn with 9 points in 2022

only 1 tag for each unit.

Which means lots of max point holders are just buying points... see the actual apps to hunt in each pool below.

So with your 21 points a NR might draw any year, with people sitting out, but because it's straight pref, no random pool. It could also take a decade.

If you assume anyone over 9 pts in going for 851 and anyone 4> and <10 is going for 61 (which is just a WAG) that essentially you could wait a lifetime and never draw. Even with extreme attrition you could be waiting for 20+ years.

All that and those two units aren't the best bear units, to my knowledge not the units with the biggest bears, definitely not the units with the highest density.

They're limited solely, per listening to CPW commission meetings, because folks don't want bear hunters "crowding" trophy muley/elk hunters.

So basically you have folks buying points in an impossible point pyramid for kinda mediocre units.




I'm sure WY general is a good tag... but I can't possibly imagine it's worth 6-8 years of applying over CO OTC.

It's not really a situation where something is worth the premium, it's a lot of folks FOMO buying points or whatever/however you want to use to describe that behavior.

 

[SAJ-99]

As @Khunter points out, most people just buy to be in the game. Once you are in the game, you have to keep buying to keep your spot in line. There is nothing logical about it. Everyone plays because they almost have to. When your odds of drawing with preference points are smaller than drawing in a pure random draw (in the cases where there is one), you know you chose the wrong path. The only question is do you throw good money after bad?

 

[cgasner1]

So for me I’m sitting on 11 pp for Wyoming after this year I’ll keep chasing a le tag after i draw I’ll jump back into points game. When one of my boys is the right age I’ll put in for a party general with him. In another state I’ll have 7 after this year I’m close to a pretty decent tag for it. I can keep throwing in for lottery tickets and maybe I’ll draw if I don’t when my boy is 17 I’ll have 24 points I can draw a tag with. If he is into it and wants to do this I’ll draw a premium tag and hand it over to him.

 

[WildWill]

I'm sure WY general is a good tag... but I can't possibly imagine it's worth 6-8 years of applying over CO OTC.

So you've never hunted Wyoming general? As someone whos hunted CO OTC 4 times (all archery) and Wyoming general 3 times ( helping my resident brother for 2 of those) I respectfully disagree. For me the "juice isn't worth the squeeze" anymore for CO especially OTC archery elk. I've had antelope and elk tags in both CO and WY never using more then 4 points and the difference in quality is night and day Wyoming eclipses Colorado in my very subjective opinion. From my observations though CO may have the superior deer hunting only hunted deer once in CO but was happy with the quality of the hunting and one doe/fawn tag in Wyoming so not a lot to base that on.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

So you've never hunted Wyoming general? As someone whos hunted CO OTC 4 times (all archery) and Wyoming general 3 times ( helping my resident brother for 2 of those) I respectfully disagree. For me the "juice isn't worth the squeeze" anymore for CO especially OTC archery elk. I've had antelope and elk tags in both CO and WY never using more then 4 points and the difference in quality is night and day Wyoming eclipses Colorado in my very subjective opinion. From my observations though CO may have the superior deer hunting only hunted deer once in CO but was happy with the quality of the hunting and one doe/fawn tag in Wyoming so not a lot to base that on.

Anecdotal experiences are what they are right (for you and me) but I'm like 4/5 on my CO elk tags, and the 1 is because I passed so my buddy could get his first elk. None were monsters, but they seem to be in the average on the Gen WY bull thread.



Definitely curious to see the WY difference if and when I draw. I'm sure it's far less crowded, and probably better bull quality... but I'm not sure if it's worth waiting on the sidelines for 1/2 a decade + good.

 

[TOGIE]

Anecdotal experiences are what they are right (for you and me) but I'm like 4/5 on my CO elk tags, and the 1 is because I passed so my buddy could get his first elk. None were monsters, but they seem to be in the average on the Gen WY bull thread.



Definitely curious to see the WY difference if and when I draw. I'm sure it's far less crowded, and probably better bull quality... but I'm not sure if it's worth waiting on the sidelines for 1/2 a decade + good.

i'm still at the stage where shooting a bull in colorado on an otc or easy to draw tag feels like a caveman figuring out how to put an artemis 3 on the moon.

but when i look around i see a chit ton of folks that have and continue to shoot a whole menagerie of bulls year over year on otc and easy to draw tags on public land in colorado.

i think in colorado the learning curve just must be steeper. you're dealing with unique difficulties of crowding and public land habitat. but eventually after trying enough the serious folks suddenly have an a-ha moment and you start shooting bulls all the time. you have to sift through colorado's complexities long enough and eventually you start noticing things.

at least i hope.

i mean what'd it take Randy? like 6 years to finally shoot an elk after moving to montana?

hyperbolically, i think you can contribute a large portion colorado's low average success to the average colorado elk hunter hunting elk like folks in wisconsin hunt whitetails.

 

[lifesupport4u]

I wish I had time to comb through this a little more and it may have been said but I am hoping with all the folks looking to use their points this year I can get a better unit with less points in coming years…. Maybe it puts a little dent in point creep the next few years even though it may cost more.

 

[Mallardsx2]

hyperbolically, i think you can contribute a large portion colorado's low average success to the average colorado elk hunter hunting elk like folks in wisconsin hunt whitetails.

i.e. Trail walkers lol

I came across a guy hunting Elk with his muzzleloader one day on my way out and I said "Hey, you know your front sight is missing on that there buckslayer your holding?"

"Ya, I know. It fell off 4 days ago."

 

[TOGIE]

i.e. Trail walkers lol

more like Meadow Monkey's.

i'm still trying like hell to convince a friend of mine that there is no point in sitting a 1 acre meadow day in and day out without confirming there are even elk in the immediate area first.

"well yeah man, but this just looks like a good area for elk to pop out"

"but what if all the elk are literally 4 drainages away?"

"but they might be here too!"



that's white tail stand hunting masquerading as elk hunting.

 

[GrantK]

i'm still at the stage where shooting a bull in colorado on an otc or easy to draw tag feels like a caveman figuring out how to put an artemis 3 on the moon.

but when i look around i see a chit ton of folks that have and continue to shoot a whole menagerie of bulls year over year on otc and easy to draw tags on public land in colorado.

i think in colorado the learning curve just must be steeper. you're dealing with unique difficulties of crowding and public land habitat. but eventually after trying enough the serious folks suddenly have an a-ha moment and you start shooting bulls all the time. you have to sift through colorado's complexities long enough and eventually you start noticing things.

at least i hope.

i mean what'd it take Randy? like 6 years to finally shoot an elk after moving to montana?

hyperbolically, i think you can contribute a large portion colorado's low average success to the average colorado elk hunter hunting elk like folks in wisconsin hunt whitetails.

I think of CO OTC as the Masters's degree in elk hunting, it takes a while to get to the point of being consistently successful because there are so many lessons that are best learned by time in the field, but once you have the time in then it gets pretty easy, and it transfers to any other state, elk are elk everywhere, and in general, they are way less dialed in almost everywhere that isn't CO OTC, if you can do well here you will spend a lot of time in other states and better units pinching yourself and checking the regs to make sure it's actually legal to be hunting because it seems too easy......

 

[TOGIE]

I think of CO OTC as the Masters's degree in elk hunting, it takes a while to get to the point of being consistently successful because there are so many lessons that are best learned by time in the field, but once you have the time in then it gets pretty easy, and it transfers to any other state, elk are elk everywhere, and in general, they are way less dialed in almost everywhere that isn't CO OTC, if you can do well here you will spend a lot of time in other states and better units pinching yourself and checking the regs to make sure it's actually legal to be hunting because it seems too easy......

i literally actually double checked that my wyoming cow tag was actually good through january this year after finding so many friggin elk lol

like, no chit it was, but i had to double check.

 

[WildWill]

Anecdotal experiences are what they are right (for you and me) but I'm like 4/5 on my CO elk tags, and the 1 is because I passed so my buddy could get his first elk. None were monsters, but they seem to be in the average on the Gen WY bull thread.



Definitely curious to see the WY difference if and when I draw. I'm sure it's far less crowded, and probably better bull quality... but I'm not sure if it's worth waiting on the sidelines for 1/2 a decade + good.

I'm 1/4 in colorado and 4/3 ( 3 hunts 4 elk tags filled) in Wyoming.

I think of CO OTC as the Masters's degree in elk hunting, it takes a while to get to the point of being consistently successful because there are so many lessons that are best learned by time in the field, but once you have the time in then it gets pretty easy, and it transfers to any other state, elk are elk everywhere, and in general, they are way less dialed in almost everywhere that isn't CO OTC, if you can do well here you will spend a lot of time in other states and better units pinching yourself and checking the regs to make sure it's actually legal to be hunting because it seems too easy......

Agree with this completely! The problem is when you're a non resident who has 2-3 weeks a year to hunt out west, can't scout or learn a unit regularly and for many who don't live in elk country can't even learn elk habits on a regular basis it could be a long time to earn that degree.



Comparing resident OTC success rates to non resident is a bit of a apples to oranges comparison IMO.
For me there are just better options to spend my time and money on then CO OTC. Don't get me wrong I was grateful for the opportunities CO provided me before I had points built up or a stronger understanding of draws that now allow me to actually draw LE tags with some regularity. I learned more about camping while elk hunting then about elk but it allowed me to really dial in a lot of gear like boots, pack, sleep system, etc. so definitely not a waste of time.

 

[SAJ-99]

more like Meadow Monkey's.

i'm still trying like hell to convince a friend of mine that there is no point in sitting a 1 acre meadow day in and day out without confirming there are even elk in the immediate area first.

"well yeah man, but this just looks like a good area for elk to pop out"

"but what if all the elk are literally 4 drainages away?"

"but they might be here too!"



that's white tail stand hunting masquerading as elk hunting.

I found this funny. The worst thing that could happen for the friend is one day there are elk there.

 

[LopeHunter]

ahem!
I am not “stupid” in the classic sense. Foolhardy, sure. Well aware of our bear situation. As I say, when they start up pref points for skunk, I am buying—cuz you can’t know for sure when/if you will be jonesing for a skunk hunt.
View attachment 264536

I buy bear points in CO as a NR so have a lot, too. Things change so maybe there are no OTC units for bear in 5 years. Might not be a predator hunt, including bear, left in CO in a decade. CO outlawed trapping, yes? Wanted wolves via the ballot box? I see clear writing on the wall and CO is about 4 referendums/petitions from joining CA as a restrictive hunting environment. Now, have I flushed more money in CO on points that will lead to no hunts or in WY? WY by $1000s of dollars. My moose and sheep points are likely to never deliver a tag while at some point I jettison out of the game. I have plenty of cash to burn, though, so will buy more CO points and maybe more WY points. Not sure about WY. I may move to CO in a couple of years.