waiting period?

[corndog1]

I am relatively new to site and have lived and hunted elk in montana for twenty five years. My friends and i wish there was a waiting period after drawing a limited entry elk tag here since some of the draw odds are getting so slim. I'm not sure if it has been brought up on this site or not?

 

[WapitiBob]

Everybody that draws is now behind you in points , they do nothing to increase your odds.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Everybody that draws is now behind you in points , they do nothing to increase your odds.

True but since it's a bonus point system you could draw every year...

 

[Big Fin]

I was on our bonus point committee that came up with the bonus points system. That was in 1998 and 1999. I was the youngest person on that committee by at least 10 years. I asked for a waiting period on limited-entry elk and deer tags that had draw odds of less than 10%. I almost got tossed for suggesting such blasphemy.

It is crazy that one person can draw 6 limited entry bull elk tags since 2004. That is how many I have drawn. Three of them with zero points. That is not good for the system. But, I'm not the one who writes the rules. I just play by the the rules of the game. Under my suggestion at the time, I would have been in the Penalty Box.

You should have seen those old gray hairs come unwound when I suggested that moose/goat/sheep should be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. That got me tagged as certifiably nuts.

Summary of my experience is that if the proposal gets made expect the old grey haired guys to come out in force to resist such change.

 

[WapitiBob]

I have grey hair...

 

[vanish]

I've always thought waiting periods were a great idea, but that would reduce applicants, and thus less money for the state.

It doesn't bother me at all when someone wins a tag in a lottery, but when they win it twice before you've won, that doesn't feel right. You had your hunt - let someone else give it a go!

 

[LopeHunter]

True but since it's a bonus point system you could draw every year...

And, I could win Powerball every week for the rest of my life. Still, no waiting period there.

I support waiting periods more than point scams. When I am made king, you will have a waiting period based on the following: Number of applicants for the tag you drew. Number of tags awarded those applicants. Divide number of applicants by tags. Round down. There is your waiting time.

Draw a pronghorn tag in a unit where 25 tags awarded and 45 people applied? You wait 45/25 = 1.8 years so you sit out 1 draw. If 20 apply? You do not sit out a draw. If 900 apply? You sit out 36 years. So, if you want to chase the best units then you need to weigh not only the odds will draw and the cost to draw but also the waiting period impact. I think would smooth out the demand as some of us want to hunt more often so would be risk adverse for ending up with a long wait period. Of course, for sheep or mountain goat or moose or ibex or orxy or rifle rut elk hunts the tags will tend to be effectively Once per Lifetime.

Points screw over the young that were too young to apply in Year 1 of the scam being launched. Variable wait periods do not.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Big Fin what is your opinion on the CO system for Sheep/Goat seems like it's a pretty decent system for the highly coveted tags...if I understand it correctly you have to put in 4 years to draw, if you draw your forth then you can't draw effectively for another 8?

 

[corndog1]

Well lots of those gray hairs probably can't even walk anymore so maybe there has been a change in attitude. As far as revenue, how about tag or application increases for theses units. I suppose I'm just dreaming.....

 

[blue devil]

I don't like the 9 year waiting period in between elk tags in SD. I have 16 years of preference points for the rifle Black Hills tag at the age of 43. By the time I get a tag and wait my nine years, it almost becomes a once in a lifetime tag.

 

[brymoore]

I was on our bonus point committee that came up with the bonus points system. That was in 1998 and 1999. I was the youngest person on that committee by at least 10 years. I asked for a waiting period on limited-entry elk and deer tags that had draw odds of less than 10%. I almost got tossed for suggesting such blasphemy.

It is crazy that one person can draw 6 limited entry bull elk tags since 2004. That is how many I have drawn. Three of them with zero points. That is not good for the system. But, I'm not the one who writes the rules. I just play by the the rules of the game. Under my suggestion at the time, I would have been in the Penalty Box.

You should have seen those old gray hairs come unwound when I suggested that moose/goat/sheep should be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. That got me tagged as certifiably nuts.

Summary of my experience is that if the proposal gets made expect the old grey haired guys to come out in force to resist such change.

Randy,

Having been on the BP committee and seeing the results for almost 20 years, would you still be in favor of BPs today? What changes would you make?

 

[brymoore]

The only way to improve someone’s drawing odds is to make someone else at a disadvantage. The easiest way I see to do it is with waiting periods after drawing. The person at a drawing disadvantage has already had the pleasure of drawing a tag.

I’d really like Idaho to consider extending its current waiting period from one year for bull/buck to two or three years and trophy species from two years to five years.

 

[Big Fin]

I have grey hair...

Me too.

 

[mtmuley]

While we're at it, toss the party aps for LE deer and elk. A short waiting period wouldn't hurt my feelings though. mtmuley

 

[Big Fin]

Randy,

Having been on the BP committee and seeing the results for almost 20 years, would you still be in favor of BPs today? What changes would you make?

At the time what was being pressed most heavily was a preference point system. I think a bonus point system was better than the proposed preference point system some wanted.

I also pushed that half of the tags be kept out of the point system. Again that was looked at with the stink eye from the old guys.

If I was King for a Day, as impractical as it would be now that thousands of people have invested in the existing point system, I would not have a point system. I would give up my big pile of bighorn sheep points and mountain goat points and moose points.

As it was stated, point systems are designed to improve someone else's odds which comes at the expense of someone else's opportunity. It is a system that picks winners and losers. The losers are usually those who are not yet old enough to hunt/apply.

What is more fair than everybody having the same odds every year?

 

[u1299]

The only way to improve someone’s drawing odds is to make someone else at a disadvantage. The easiest way I see to do it is with waiting periods after drawing. The person at a drawing disadvantage has already had the pleasure of drawing a tag.

I’d really like Idaho to consider extending its current waiting period from one year for bull/buck to two or three years and trophy species from two years to five years.

Not sure your odds increase by any meaningful amount with bonus points or a waiting period, I believe the math will prove that to be true. All it accomplishes is make it almost impossible for the person who draws a tag to ever draw another one, I have no problem if Fin or anyone else draws a tag every year, good for him. Maybe I’m missing something but do my odds for hard to draw tags increase more than tenths of a percent by point systems or waiting periods, if so please provide some data.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Not sure your odds increase by any meaningful amount with bonus points or a waiting period, I believe the math will prove that to be true. All it accomplishes is make it almost impossible for the person who draws a tag to ever draw another one, I have no problem if Fin or anyone else draws a tag every year, good for him. Maybe I’m missing something but do my odds for hard to draw tags increase more than tenths of a percent by point systems or waiting periods, if so please provide some data.

Eg.

Sheep Unit 100-20 Montana -2016
Total Applicants: 394
Tags: 2
Percent Successful: .51%
Number Applicants with 0 pts: 55
Number Applicants in top point group: 37 (15pts.)
Both tags drawn by Max point holders
First time putting in you have 1 application, at 15 you have 226 applications, so if you calculate total apps you square all the points then add one for the current years app then multiple by applicants in each group and then sum for all point groups, which equals 23219 total "names in the hat" If you have 15 bonus points you have a .97% chance of drawing at 0 points you have a .004% chance of drawing. Essentially someone with 15 bonus points is 250 times more likely to draw than someone with 0 points.

I think I did the math correct, hopefully our resident CPA will let me know if I missed the mark. As per the comments about disadvantaging someone for another... if this was a straight lottery everyone would have the .51% odds to give some people double the lottery odds you are giving another guy 125 times worse than the straight lottery odds.

 

[u1299]

Eg.

Sheep Unit 100-20 Montana -2016
Total Applicants: 394
Tags: 2
Percent Successful: .51%
Number Applicants with 0 pts: 55
Number Applicants in top point group: 37 (15pts.)
Both tags drawn by Max point holders
First time putting in you have 1 application, at 15 you have 226 applications, so if you calculate total apps you square all the points then add one for the current years app then multiple by applicants in each group and then sum for all point groups, which equals 23219 total "names in the hat" If you have 15 bonus points you have a .97% chance of drawing at 0 points you have a .004% chance of drawing. Essentially someone with 15 bonus points is 250 times more likely to draw than someone with 0 points.

I think I did the math correct, hopefully our resident CPA will let me know if I missed the mark. As per the comments about disadvantaging someone for another... if this was a straight lottery everyone would have the .51% odds to give some people double the lottery odds you are giving another guy 125 times worse than the straight lottery odds.

Not sure if you’re trying to imply based on your data that points or waiting periods are justified or just providing some data that I won’t question. It does I believe make my point that whether my odds go from 0.25 to 0.5 or 0.97 they are still in the neighborhood of 1 percent +_ which is not significant enough IMO to justify penalizing a younger hunter or successful applicant by almost assuring they never draw or draw again. Bottom line 99% of the time someone besides me is going to get the permit, I don’t care who that lucky/fortunate individual is.

 

[Deleted member 28227]

Not sure if you’re trying to imply based on your data that points or waiting periods are justified or just providing some data that I won’t question. It does I believe make my point that whether my odds go from 0.25 to 0.5 or 0.97 they are still in the neighborhood of 1 percent +_ which is not significant enough IMO to justify penalizing a younger hunter or successful applicant by almost assuring they never draw or draw again. Bottom line 99% of the time someone besides me is going to get the permit, I don’t care who that lucky/fortunate individual is.

Just providing the data per your request. I think to change odds by a meaningful amount (per your definition) you would indeed have to use a preference point system where a point holder has a 0% chance of drawing and a max point holder has a 5.4% chance (using 100-20 data for numbers converted to a preference point based system)

I think there is also an argument to be made that while also providing everyone with an equal chance to draw, a lottery system also decrease total applications because there is no incentive to apply if you have 0% desire to go on a hunt that year. For instance I'm applying for moose points in UT, CO, and MT. I got a moose tag for AK so I'm definitely not applying for an ID moose tag because there is a chance, however small, I would draw and there is no way I could get the vacation time to do the hunt, but there is no real mark against me for next year by not applying this year. If I don't apply in CO, UT or MT then I essentially lose my spot in line.

 

[brymoore]

Not sure your odds increase by any meaningful amount with bonus points or a waiting period, I believe the math will prove that to be true. All it accomplishes is make it almost impossible for the person who draws a tag to ever draw another one, I have no problem if Fin or anyone else draws a tag every year, good for him. Maybe I’m missing something but do my odds for hard to draw tags increase more than tenths of a percent by point systems or waiting periods, if so please provide some data.

I’ll speak about Idaho’s system for wild sheep as I know it. For those that don’t know, if you apply for a trophy species, you’re limited to apply only for that species in the draw, with some exceptions. If you’re applying for the most popular sheep tag in the state, unit 11, the waiting period change won’t have much effect. However, if you’re applying for some of the Frank Church units, it will improve your odds. Similarly, if applied to elk and deer, the highest demand units (unit 45 in Idaho for deer) would see little change while middle and lower demand units would see improved odds.