PEAX Equipment

Retirement goal changed due to inflation?

I see kids in MN paying $250,000 to get elem ed degrees from our top liberal arts schools - what a financial waste. I know other ones that want to go to a top law school and get $250,000 "art history" degrees on the way - that if it results in top law school admission will easily pay for itself. But if not, it will be an albatross.

I work with a guy in the Cities, he was 100% what you are describing for a teaching degree. His senior year he started doing the math and realized he could never pay back his loans on a teachers salary. And that's how a teacher now works for an Electrical power distributions manufacturer.... HAHA!
 
My wife has the federal plan which covers us both and I also have the VA
It will be interesting to see how govt. pensions and other benefits play out over the next two decades. With about 15% of the labor force being employed by a govt. entity (and that number is rising) while the total number of private-sector employees is shrinking, not sure how sustainable the model is. At some point a shrinking number of taxpayers will push to limit the funding of these retirement pools (or will just print money to pay them thereby reducing the real purchase power of those payments via inflation).

 
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It will be interesting to see how govt. pensions and other benefits play out over the next two decades. With about 15% of the labor force being employed by a govt. entity (and that number is rising) while the total number of private-sector employees is shrinking, not sure how sustainable the model is. At some point a shrinking number of taxpayers will push to limit the funding of these retirement pools (or will just print money to pay them thereby reducing the real purchase power of those payments via inflation).
Meh in 20 years Chinese companies will be using "American call centers". Xi is going to have to call Susie in Tulsa to fix his flight reservation.
 
It will be interesting to see how govt. pensions and other benefits play out over the next two decades. With about 15% of the labor force being employed by a govt. entity (and that number is rising) while the total number of private-sector employees is shrinking, not sure how sustainable the model is. At some point a shrinking number of taxpayers will push to limit the funding of these retirement pools (or will just print money to pay them thereby reducing the real purchase power of those payments via inflation).
I think things are already coming to a head for the public sector's retirement programs. ND is already trying to transition its state employees to more traditional private sector style retirement funds. Its a subject of discussion nearly every biennium.
 
I personally am in a position where I could retire next year at 55 and be in pretty good shape financially. The 2 things that are keeping me from it are #1 that I am at my peak earning capability and it seems like a waste to get to where I am and not at least earn at this level for a few more years, and #2 I think it would put the company in a bind having to replace me at this point. I know everyone is replaceable but the spot I am in generally has a minimum of a 2 year transition into it and we are just getting the last guy replaced so it would be pretty hard on the company to turn right around and replace me. I kind of locked myself into a few more years as well buying the land in Colorado and my son is in 9th grade and I have always just planned on working until he graduates college and do intend to pay for his college. I do feel like I can be an asset to the company at least a few more years but don't plan on going past 62.
 
It will be interesting to see how govt. pensions and other benefits play out over the next two decades. With about 15% of the labor force being employed by a govt. entity (and that number is rising) while the total number of private-sector employees is shrinking, not sure how sustainable the model is. At some point a shrinking number of taxpayers will push to limit the funding of these retirement pools (or will just print money to pay them thereby reducing the real purchase power of those payments via inflation).

A big part of this is the discount rate right now. With the discount rate at all time historic lows the way the liability is calculated on a net present value it really is overstated in my opinion. I have several companies with plans that on paper are underfunded by 20 or 25 percent but I'm telling them informally that they are in good shape and not to sweat it. If the discount rate goes up from the current 2.75% it was at on December 31, 2021 to 3.75% on December 31, 2022 all the sudden they will magically be back to being fully funded. I don't know what that 4.4 Trillion is as a % of the total and I'm not saying that there aren't some plans in poor shape but the way the PBGC works if they get too low they have to charge surcharges to get back to at least 80% funded. The discount rate going up is going to cure a lot of underfunded plans.
 
A big part of this is the discount rate right now. With the discount rate at all time historic lows the way the liability is calculated on a net present value it really is overstated in my opinion. I have several companies with plans that on paper are underfunded by 20 or 25 percent but I'm telling them informally that they are in good shape and not to sweat it. If the discount rate goes up from the current 2.75% it was at on December 31, 2021 to 3.75% on December 31, 2022 all the sudden they will magically be back to being fully funded. I don't know what that 4.4 Trillion is as a % of the total and I'm not saying that there aren't some plans in poor shape but the way the PBGC works if they get too low they have to charge surcharges to get back to at least 80% funded. The discount rate going up is going to cure a lot of underfunded plans.
I agree somewhat, but this is an unusual market. The discount rate is based on your assumed rate of return. So 2022 when bonds are down 14% and stocks are down 14% then your future assumed rate of return goes up, but your assets just lost 14%. It’s kind of a wash for the math in this type of market environment,if not a net loss.

Public pensions are a mess. We have to remember that this is after one of the best decade for market returns ever. If they couldn’t close the gap then, the next decade is going to be tough.
 
I think I should be ok by age 55 which is ten years from now. I have been putting the max allowed by the IRS into my 401k for years, though I have not looked at the balance once this year because it may depress me. Other than a small mortgage on my modest house I have zero debt and am able to save some $ every month for trips and toys. With the market the way it is right now I have really been struggling to decide if this is the right time to buy index funds? It seems like there is “value” right now. I don’t know. All I know is the buying power of my money is decreasing and there’s got to be a better place than the bank earning .02% interest or whatever garbage rate it is. I welcome any suggestions.

And you losers who think a man needs a purpose and should work till he keels over at his desk should try this cool thing I discovered called fishing.
 
I think I should be ok by age 55 which is ten years from now. I have been putting the max allowed by the IRS into my 401k for years, though I have not looked at the balance once this year because it may depress me. Other than a small mortgage on my modest house I have zero debt and am able to save some $ every month for trips and toys. With the market the way it is right now I have really been struggling to decide if this is the right time to buy index funds? It seems like there is “value” right now. I don’t know. All I know is the buying power of my money is decreasing and there’s got to be a better place than the bank earning .02% interest or whatever garbage rate it is. I welcome any suggestions.

And you losers who think a man needs a purpose and should work till he keels over at his desk should try this cool thing I discovered called fishing.
Fishing definitely provides a purpose, it occupies the time until we take out rifles for a hike! 🙂

I have been putting a little bit of extra money into an S&P index, like you I’m looking at the market as on sale (not saying that’s right or wrong)
 
With the market the way it is right now I have really been struggling to decide if this is the right time to buy index funds? It seems like there is “value” right now. I don’t know.
Just cover your eyes and click buy... you buy "more stock" in a down market than an up market right so it's all good.

Total Money to spend $20
Price $10
2 Units

Total Money to Spend $20
Price $5
4 Units

Average price you paid per unit with your $40 = $6.66

Oh crap just viewed my account balance
 
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Dang! Just found this thread and got caught up. I have been thinking about this more and more of late as I am about 8 years from retirement. My buddies and I have had many conversations about it over a campfire. A great book I am reading now that touches on a lot of the things mentioned in this thread is The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel.

Everywhere you go, retirement advice focusses on the hard numbers....3% or 4% withdrawal rates, 10% or 15% into retirement accounts, etc. Tons of resources and these hard numbers could be debated well into the night past when the beer is gone! I am curious about the softer topics.

How do you know when to retire? Is it a date? An expected income? Total nest egg? Age? Kids gone or out of college? Work event (ie Take this Job and Shove it!).

Depending on what you do in retirement, your income needs will not be equal like most calculators calculate (either adjusted for inflation or not). For example, I plan on doing a lot of out of state hunting for the first 10 years (my 60s). I don't think I will need as much in my 90s.....

.....Unless health issues catch up to me in my 90s. How much faith should we put in Medicare down the road?

Then there are a number of ways to retire. How to pick?

- Cold turkey. In the office today, retired tomorrow and fishing by 8 am. I hope you have health insurance figured out! Lets say work until 60.
- Half way. Drop to part time in your current job. Possibly retain health insurance. In theory, you could go this route earlier, but then have to remain part time employed longer. Start this at 57 but have to work until 63.
- Quit the current job and do something fun. Work at a gun or sporting goods store or whatever trips your trigger. Would that really be a job? Gives you some spending money, maybe a good discount, and keeps you active.
 
I don't think I will need as much in my 90s.....

.....Unless health issues catch up to me in my 90s. How much faith should we put in Medicare down the road?
Assisted living is not covered by Medicare and runs about $8k/mo in this neck of the woods. A decent "memory care" place will run you/your family $10k+/mo. Some states give some assistance, but few rooms and the less desirable facilities. Getting old sucks and can be expensive - I have been helping out my parents for years now.
 
Sitka Gear Turkey Tool Belt

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