Inflation (CPI) is currently listed at 2.4% so it is 0.4 over the Fed's target.
Truflation is listed at 2.11%
The graphs below, courtesy of Truflation, are very telling. The Truflation US Inflation Index uses over 30 million data points to assess price changes and, as a result, provide a robust forecast for the BLS CPI number. Moreover, their data have proven to be an incredibly accurate forecasting tool. As we share in the graph on the left, courtesy of Truflation, their index tends to lead CPI by 45 days. Their comparative analysis shown below stops at the end of 2024. Therefore, we share their current inflation index on the right to help better form expectations for tomorrow’s CPI number and, more appropriately, the coming month’s inflation data.
The Truflation Index started the year at 2.77%. It has since plummeted to
2.11%. Thus, if the index remains a good inflation forecaster, CPI price growth could fall significantly by April and May. Regarding tomorrow’s CPI report, the Truflation gauge’s recent decline will likely not show up in the January data the BLS will report due to the 45-day lag.
There was a paper I just viewed the over day that has back tested Truflation vs. CPI the correlation was very high I will try and find it to share.
From the categories that have been posted it would seem that food is the single largest contributor,
primarily beef, with herd size down to the lowest number since the 1960's I doubt that changes much. Heifer retention picked up in my area for the first time in three years.
Regarding Kevin Hassett he taught economics at the Columbia Graduate Business School (hardly an Austrian/Mises school), Senior Economist at the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors -so he might know something about economic research, and he has been in economic advisory position since the McCain and Romney campaigns hardly some crackpot.
