Relax, Everything is Going to be Okay!

1771496344449.png

https://econofact.org/are-tariffs-raising-u-s-retail-prices

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https://fortune.com/2026/02/13/new-york-fed-economists-confirm-americans-footing-trump-tariff-bill/


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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/trump-tariffs-helped-increase-revenue-for-some-us-businesses.html

The point I am making is. Info is conflicting even among the MSM. You cant talk about this without looking at the entire picture. From a construction stand point I have seen far less material increase notices then I did in the last 4 years. Not sure why but fact. We just went through prime increase season with very few received.
 
brymoore said:
I’m just saying without one item from a large group of items, inflation would be higher. Everything else is costing more than 2.4% rise. Fuel reduction will stabilize this year. Or not. *for guessing on economics.
Click to expand...
They are cutting production of oil for a reason...
 
Anyone other than me baffled by people claiming prices haven't risen dramatically in the last year or they haven't seen it?

Its most everywhere you turn...must have someone else buy things for them?

I bought a pair of sweatpants the other day. Nice cotton ones. Just a few years ago they were 20 bucks on sale. Paid 36 on sale for them last weekend!
 
The price of crude oil is up quite a bit YTD, at ~15%. The stock price for the oil company I retired from is up ~23% YTD.

That tells me that gasoline prices aren't expected to decline, and are likely headed up.
 
Rainer said:
So how many people in the US have been arrested that are in the Epstein files yet? The UK the rest of Europe are beating you to it
Click to expand...
For those not up on the latest...


King Charles...his brother, said
"I have learned with the deepest concern the news about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and suspicion of misconduct while in public office. What now follows is the full, fair and proper process by which this issue is investigated in the appropriate manner and by the appropriate authorities.

In this, as I have said before, they have our full and whole-hearted support and cooperation.

Let me state clearly: the law must take its course."

Pretty big contrast with the US where Trump/Bondi and his far from independent justice department are actively stonewalling any similar effort to hold abusers accountable, let alone let anyone see who might be named as involved.
 
Inflation (CPI) is currently listed at 2.4% so it is 0.4 over the Fed's target.
Truflation is listed at 2.11%


The graphs below, courtesy of Truflation, are very telling. The Truflation US Inflation Index uses over 30 million data points to assess price changes and, as a result, provide a robust forecast for the BLS CPI number. Moreover, their data have proven to be an incredibly accurate forecasting tool. As we share in the graph on the left, courtesy of Truflation, their index tends to lead CPI by 45 days. Their comparative analysis shown below stops at the end of 2024. Therefore, we share their current inflation index on the right to help better form expectations for tomorrow’s CPI number and, more appropriately, the coming month’s inflation data.

The Truflation Index started the year at 2.77%. It has since plummeted to 2.11%. Thus, if the index remains a good inflation forecaster, CPI price growth could fall significantly by April and May. Regarding tomorrow’s CPI report, the Truflation gauge’s recent decline will likely not show up in the January data the BLS will report due to the 45-day lag.

truflation cpi

There was a paper I just viewed the over day that has back tested Truflation vs. CPI the correlation was very high I will try and find it to share.

From the categories that have been posted it would seem that food is the single largest contributor, primarily beef, with herd size down to the lowest number since the 1960's I doubt that changes much. Heifer retention picked up in my area for the first time in three years.

Regarding Kevin Hassett he taught economics at the Columbia Graduate Business School (hardly an Austrian/Mises school), Senior Economist at the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors -so he might know something about economic research, and he has been in economic advisory position since the McCain and Romney campaigns hardly some crackpot.
 
406dn said:
The price of crude oil is up quite a bit YTD, at ~15%. The stock price for the oil company I retired from is up ~23% YTD.

That tells me that gasoline prices aren't expected to decline, and are likely headed up.
Click to expand...
They always head up as people start driving more in spring. Like clockwork.
 
Bonasababy said:
For those not up on the latest...


King Charles...his brother, said
"I have learned with the deepest concern the news about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and suspicion of misconduct while in public office. What now follows is the full, fair and proper process by which this issue is investigated in the appropriate manner and by the appropriate authorities.

In this, as I have said before, they have our full and whole-hearted support and cooperation.

Let me state clearly: the law must take its course."

Pretty big contrast with the US where Trump/Bondi and his far from independent justice department are actively stonewalling any similar effort to hold abusers accountable, let alone let anyone see who might be named as involved.
Click to expand...
I think the UK needs to bring back gibbetting for these men. They might have some kicking around in the Tower
 
Bonasababy said:
They always head up as people start driving more in spring. Like clockwork.
Click to expand...
There are a few reasons why this is often true.

First, demand does ramp up as people begin driving more.

In the winter, in the northern tier states, there is quite a bit of N-butane in gasoline. N-butane is the red headed step child of hydrocarbon molecules. Its vapor pressure precludes putting it into gasoline, when the weather is warm. It can't be easily turned into different molecule, in a refinery. So winter grade gasoline has lower input costs, compared to the warmer months.

Maintenance in refineries is generally performed when the weather won't be a factor. Locally, that meant...say April thru May, and September thru October. The production during these periods is curtailed a significant amount. Every refinery wants to run wide open from Memorial Day, to past Labor Day. Any downtime during the peak season is pretty costly to a refinery.
 
406dn said:
The price of crude oil is up quite a bit YTD, at ~15%. The stock price for the oil company I retired from is up ~23% YTD.

That tells me that gasoline prices aren't expected to decline, and are likely headed up.
Click to expand...
Speculators have been dumping their bitcoin, and money has been flowing into the oil patch lately. Talk of 100 dollar oil if things get western in Iran. Time will tell.
 
406dn said:
There are a few reasons why this is often true.

First, demand does ramp up as people begin driving more.

In the winter, in the northern tier states, there is quite a bit of N-butane in gasoline. N-butane is the red headed step child of hydrocarbon molecules. Its vapor pressure precludes putting it into gasoline, when the weather is warm. It can't be easily turned into different molecule, in a refinery. So winter grade gasoline has lower input costs, compared to the warmer months.

Maintenance in refineries is generally performed when the weather won't be a factor. Locally, that meant...say April thru May, and September thru October. The production during these periods is curtailed a significant amount. Every refinery wants to run wide open from Memorial Day, to past Labor Day. Any downtime during the peak season is pretty costly to a refinery.
Click to expand...
Maduro's demise was a plus for your companies stock.

Guyana Emerges as the Clear Winner in Venezuela’s Oil Reset | OilPrice.com https://share.google/qYZ7TlUiDZOyzN4wk
 
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