So at what % of population is herd immunity achieved?
It's not entirely known, Measles is 95%, Polio 80%.
For arguments sake let's call it 80%
Here is my informed WAG;
Assumptions
Cases (antibodies) + Vaccination = Immunity
Cases I got from CDC, obviously there is not a consensus about whether these numbers represent total cases. Therefore I did cases, 2x the number of cases and 10x the number of cases.
Vaccination, I used have been given 1 dose. There isn't great info on what just one dose does, and only 5% of people are getting J&J currently.
Antibodies + Vacciantion, I assumed for this graph there was zero. This is total garbage, who knows the rate, I bet it's high.
I think the "Possible Immunity Double Cases" is probably on the extreme high end of where we are currently, and that we could be a bit below the "Possible immunity"
My WAG is that on March 25, 2021 we are between 30-40%. There are likely communities at 80% and others at <5%.
