Next Draw System to Implode

[Zim]

I asked which states were showing a decrease in new NR applicants. You said Nevada. I showed you that the largest group of applicants in 2019 were brand new applicants with zero points.

You said no, new applicants are decreasing. Then you said 99% of people stay in until they draw which seems to me to show that when you look at point holders and the largest number is zero, new applicants are the largest group each year. The numbers above zero are relevant because they are all SMALLER then the number of ground floor applicants.

I would disagree that you have never criticized the Nevada system. Your entire arguement is that it is so crappy it will self implode.

I couldn't care less whether and where others apply to. I know that they will not draw if they do not apply. And I know that Nevada NR new applicants were the biggest single group of applicants in 2019, so their system is working fine for them securing new hunters.

Wrong.........misquote.........wrong..........misquote.........etc., etc., etc.

The largest pool in every state every year is zero. It's always going to be the highest. If you want something productive to do, look up and post the total number of zero point nonresident applicants who applied for all species in Nevada for the last ten years. That will be ten numbers..........that's it. I'm not even saying that trend will be decreasing each year. But no way in hell is it increasing at the pace of competitors WY, AZ, CO! And I've never looked these up myself. However I don't need to. Common sense will dictate that when the guys in front of you are all getting their points squared. 100% of the hunters may not do the math, but I'm quite sure at least 10% do!

 

[Desk Pop]

Wrong.........misquote.........wrong..........misquote.........etc., etc., etc.

The largest pool in every state every year is zero. It's always going to be the highest. If you want something productive to do, look up and post the total number of zero point nonresident applicants who applied for all species in Nevada for the last ten years. That will be ten numbers..........that's it. I'm not even saying that trend will be decreasing each year. But no way in hell is it increasing at the pace of competitors WY, AZ, CO! And I've never looked these up myself. However I don't need to. Common sense will dictate that when the guys in front of you are all getting their points squared. 100% of the hunters may not do the math, but I'm quite sure at least 10% do!

Haha. So now it is not about Nevada having an increase in NR applicants .... but instead outpacing other states with preference point systems rather than bonus squared???

I asked what states had a decrease in ground floor applicants.

You replied: "Nevada and Maine." (which is false on Nevada and I don't care enough about Maine to check.)
Then later: "I'm not even saying that trend will be decreasing each year."

So you changed it to say that indeed NR ground floor apps are growing in NV, which is true, but now your argument is that NV is not growing as fast as some others?

This thread was created to discourage people from putting into draws hoping that they don't water down your chances with 22 points squared.

Nevada is not on pace to implode. Business is booming for NR apps. The attitude of trying to decrease participation under the guise of a public service announcement on how squaring numbers works is selfish.

You don't know what you are talking about.

 

[NoWiser]

To be fair, I don't think Zim posted this to increase his odds. He's wrong about new applicants decreasing, but I do agree with him on Nevada being a bad value for new applicants with the exception being if you are looking for some easier to draw archery deer hunts. I'd apply to Nevada every year if they didn't square points but they do, so I don't. That makes him correct about at least 1 nonresident, I guess.

 

[Letthemgrow]

At this stage you could make an arguement that all point states are bad investments if you are only evaluating it in regards to return on investment.
It all depends on your personal paradigm.

If you can show me a way to obtain a high quality elk tag like a NV 111-115 or AZ unit 9/10/23 without spending tens of thousands of dollars at auction or a landowner tag, I'm all ears.

Do you think people are deciding between buying bread and Campbells's soup . . . or applying in a big game hunt draw?
This is all discretionary income. Same action as all the people who go to Vegas, walk up to the roulette table and put money on red #3.

 

[BuzzH]

Is it a bad ROI to have 4 AZ rifle bull tags in 15-16 years?

Like I said, Zim is only looking at it through the lens of a ground floor applicant, that its a bad investment for new hunters to enter the draw. I agree if a new hunter is wanting to draw the Arizona strip for mule deer. However, if you're starting out to draw, as others have said, an archery NV deer tag, coues deer in Arizona, etc. why is it a bad ROI? Those require way less points, but still do require some points to draw.

In other cases, say you already have a required hunting license for a mid-tier elk tag that's your reason for applying, what's the problem with throwing in for a sheep, pronghorn, deer for a few more sheckles?

Zim largely applies for max point units because he got in a long time ago, many new applicants are playing a different game, and he cant get his mind around that.

 

[Letthemgrow]

"Is it a bad ROI to have 4 AZ rifle bull tags in 15-16 years?

I'm sure you could find someone to support that line of thinking.
(But they are usually Wyoming residents who blindly reply to every mule deer draw question with, "I can hunt Region G every year just by swingin' by the ol Maverick and pickin' up my tag"

 

[BuzzH]

I support that line of thinking, because that's exactly what I've done...4 AZ rifle bull tags in 16 years and if I would have been smart about it, should have had 5.

 

[Zim]

Again, dragging another state AZ into the conversation that's got nothing to do with Nevada. In fact you are just supporting what I've been saying.. There are far better places for newbies to invest their ground floor money than Nevada. I even stated AZ being one of them. And Wyoming! Again, IdahoNick, I repeat........the only way to prove your point is to post the number of zero point nonresident applicants all species in Nevada for the last ten years. What is so hard about that? Just do it. I'm quite sure it will prove my point.

 

[jmgraham1986]

- FWIW, I fit Zim's profile. I play in all western states, to include ID from time to time (resident of NM), but don't touch Nevada or Utah because its doesn't appear to be worth it for me.

 

[Shangobango]

At this stage you could make an arguement that all point states are bad investments if you are only evaluating it in regards to return on investment.
It all depends on your personal paradigm.

If you can show me a way to obtain a high quality elk tag like a NV 111-115 or AZ unit 9/10/23 without spending tens of thousands of dollars at auction or a landowner tag, I'm all ears.

Do you think people are deciding between buying bread and Campbells's soup . . . or applying in a big game hunt draw?
This is all discretionary income. Same action as all the people who go to Vegas, walk up to the roulette table and put money on red #3.

It seems to me if that you are trying to get in on the ground floor with a chance to draw any of the top tier tags it is a terrible ROI. I want to have at least one Western big game tag a year. Two tags a year would be the sweet spot for me. I could personally care less about the high quality tags if I have to wait a decade or more to draw them. I want to hunt.

Applying for big game tags is nothing like gambling in a casino. The analogy, and I seem to be seeing it pretty regularly, just flat doesn't work. If your were paying for the tag regardless of if you draw than it would kind of work. Throwing ones name in a drawing for the chance to purchase something just does not equate to wagering a certain amount of money in order to win a greater amount of money.

 

[bts09]

It seems to me if that you are trying to get in on the ground floor with a chance to draw any of the top tier tags it is a terrible ROI. I want to have at least one Western big game tag a year. Two tags a year would be the sweet spot for me. I could personally care less about the high quality tags if I have to wait a decade or more to draw them. I want to hunt.

This has been my view from the beginning. It's why I don't mind the point systems in some states. Accumulate a couple points in a couple places, cash them in, rinse and repeat. I want to hunt every year. I don't so much care about hunting that elusive "trophy" tag. And by the way, why on earth do we assume the system won't change by the time we amass enough points? Too many variables--more people buying points, fewer animals in some places, less habitat in some places, different political viewpoints on hunting and conservation generally, etc. Playing a super long-term points game just seems too risky. And I don't wanna wait that long to hunt. (Plus, if you do the math, if I start buying points right now for Wyoming sheep, if the creep continues at the same rate, it'll be 47 years before I will draw. 47.)

An old friend told me abt 10 yrs ago that hunting was becoming a rich man's sport.
Increasingly, he seems correct.

Couldn't agree more. I think it's our job as hunters and conservationists to try to make sure this doesn't happen. It is already the case in some states. I don't see it that way yet in others, especially states that still find ways to let new entrants to the system pull tags.

As for the next system to implode, I just hope it's not one the few remaining "pure random" states. For me, those balance out the various points systems for those of us willing to apply in several places and travel around to hunt.

 

[Zim]

- FWIW, I fit Zim's profile. I play in all western states, to include ID from time to time (resident of NM), but don't touch Nevada or Utah because its doesn't appear to be worth it for me.

Good job. You & NoWiser are guys who have done your math. I also used to apply in Idaho every so often. Not a bad value, nor odds, even for long time investors. Although it seems many others are now figuring this out. I'd like Randy to chime in on the topic of Nevada. I know he is not in favor of jumping in to Utah from the ground floor, because he said so in one of his videos. Also, to some who think I just apply for glory hunts because I have 20-25 points in most states, that's not true at all. Even this year I applied in the outfitter pool for a low tier drop camp NM elk hunt with 50% odds, as well as a few others with 20-30% odds, none of which I drew. It was nice to have the 44 Oregon deer & lope preference points to fall back on. that was part of my long term strategy and it worked out like a charm. But for young guys to adopt what bts09 does makes sense in today's climate. Got to look at the big picture.

 

[BuzzH]

Again, dragging another state AZ into the conversation that's got nothing to do with Nevada. In fact you are just supporting what I've been saying.. There are far better places for newbies to invest their ground floor money than Nevada. I even stated AZ being one of them. And Wyoming! Again, IdahoNick, I repeat........the only way to prove your point is to post the number of zero point nonresident applicants all species in Nevada for the last ten years. What is so hard about that? Just do it. I'm quite sure it will prove my point.

Why don't you go find the numbers, IdahoNick isn't your secretary...

You're the one that's sure Nevada's point system is going to implode...prove it.

 

[TheTone]

The biggest threats to Idaho’s IMO are probably in the form of landowners wanting more than they currently get, politicians with connections to wealthy sportsman and hunters that don’t understand how a random draw works and think they should be drawing every time they apply even if the odds are under 10%

 

[BuzzH]

Just quickly looked at some data on the Nevada DOW website, pulled the first NR deer unit:

2011 there were 41 first time applicants for unit 11-13
2019 there were 178 first time applicants for unit 11-13

Desert sheep unit 183 2011 47 first time applicants applied
Desert sheep unit 183 2019 256 first time applicants applied

You searched for - NDOW

www.ndow.org

 

[Zim]

Why don't you go find the numbers, IdahoNick isn't your secretary...

You're the one that's sure Nevada's point system is going to implode...prove it.

Because he is the one who made the personal attack on me and my opinion. And backed it up with irrelevant draw statistics. He is the one who should correct his own error.

 

[BuzzH]

Because he is the one who made the personal attack on me and my opinion. He is the one who should be proving it.

Personal attack?

You need a tissue Sally?

 

[Zim]

Just quickly looked at some data on the Nevada DOW website, pulled the first NR deer unit:

2011 there were 41 first time applicants for unit 11-13
2019 there were 178 first time applicants for unit 11-13

Desert sheep unit 183 2011 47 first time applicants applied
Desert sheep unit 183 2019 256 first time applicants applied

You searched for - NDOW

www.ndow.org

Look, Debbie, It seems you are good at posting irrelevant stats as well.

As I mentioned previously.................."Look up and post the total number of zero point nonresident applicants who applied for all species in Nevada for the last ten years. That will be ten numbers..........that's it. I'm not even saying that trend will be decreasing each year. But no way in hell is it increasing at the pace of competitors WY, AZ, CO."

 

[Desk Pop]

Zim, you're the one who is adamant that new Nevada NR draw applications are down and the system is next to implode.

Buzz and I both gave stats of a total of 6 or 7 samples showing the trend is the opposite of what you think. Since you think these are bad samplings, you go find the numbers and prove that Nevada applicants are on the decline.

No more red herrings about "NV is a bad value," "Utah is a bad value," "Bigfin come save me," blah blah blah.

The thread is about systems about to supposedly implode because fewer are applying. I asked which states.

You said, "Nevada and Maine."

So prove Nevada.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Well I for one hope Zim finally draws his unicorn tag in NV so we never need to see him here crying about not being able to draw a tag in Nevada.