D
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It’s the new scientific method, throw an opinion out and then challenge others to prove it’s not factual.
Next Draw System to Implode
- Thread starter Zim
- Start date
WapitiBob
Well-known member
That sounds almost like retirement, congrats.
bullbugle307
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- Jul 19, 2018
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- 934
I like to look at why people support points vs. a random draw.
People that support a points system generally feel that those who have been waiting the longest should get tags before someone who gets lucky in the random draw. I think that's a valid argument and don't buy that newbies need glory tags to get into hunting. I've never drawn a tag with even 1 in 4 odds, and I've put in for plenty of areas that aren't terribly hard to draw relarive to the glory tags. I do well on general tags and guaranteed first draw tags, and I live and breath hunting.
Some folks in the points camp may also feel like some states were up to funny business in the past and that points generally doesn't allow that to happen anymore. I've heard that argument plenty, and truth be told I genuinely know a guy who worked in a state's license section for about ten years who adamantly claims those things did indeed happen when he was employed there several decades ago. Not some guys cousin or a guy who knew a guy who knew a guy, but a genuine, direct from a firsthand source person. I know he worked in the license section, has been on a relatively recent task force, and has some credibility. Full disclosure though, this person supports land transfer and SFW and has a huge beef with said agency, so theres a lot I don't agree with him on values wise and I dont know if I believe him. People are capable of making stuff up, especially if they left on bad terms and I fully understand that.
Plenty of good arguments for the random draw crowd too. Point creep sucks, and it also sucks to know that if you didn't get in on the ground floor the sheer number of point holders doesnt bode well for a young person just getting in the game ever getting a great tag. I like states that have a private company run their draw it can be seen by some as a solution to that problem. Not to say a private company couldn't do the same thing though.
I guess I like random draw with private companies running the draw. Id like an extra layer of transparency even with private company run random draws where extreme outliers are analyzed to make sure there's no funny business on either end. It seems reasonable to me on the surface, but I recognize that some outliers will always exist and the kind of transparency I'm talking about could be fraught with complications, privacy concerns etc.
People that support a points system generally feel that those who have been waiting the longest should get tags before someone who gets lucky in the random draw. I think that's a valid argument and don't buy that newbies need glory tags to get into hunting. I've never drawn a tag with even 1 in 4 odds, and I've put in for plenty of areas that aren't terribly hard to draw relarive to the glory tags. I do well on general tags and guaranteed first draw tags, and I live and breath hunting.
Some folks in the points camp may also feel like some states were up to funny business in the past and that points generally doesn't allow that to happen anymore. I've heard that argument plenty, and truth be told I genuinely know a guy who worked in a state's license section for about ten years who adamantly claims those things did indeed happen when he was employed there several decades ago. Not some guys cousin or a guy who knew a guy who knew a guy, but a genuine, direct from a firsthand source person. I know he worked in the license section, has been on a relatively recent task force, and has some credibility. Full disclosure though, this person supports land transfer and SFW and has a huge beef with said agency, so theres a lot I don't agree with him on values wise and I dont know if I believe him. People are capable of making stuff up, especially if they left on bad terms and I fully understand that.
Plenty of good arguments for the random draw crowd too. Point creep sucks, and it also sucks to know that if you didn't get in on the ground floor the sheer number of point holders doesnt bode well for a young person just getting in the game ever getting a great tag. I like states that have a private company run their draw it can be seen by some as a solution to that problem. Not to say a private company couldn't do the same thing though.
I guess I like random draw with private companies running the draw. Id like an extra layer of transparency even with private company run random draws where extreme outliers are analyzed to make sure there's no funny business on either end. It seems reasonable to me on the surface, but I recognize that some outliers will always exist and the kind of transparency I'm talking about could be fraught with complications, privacy concerns etc.
Zim
Well-known member
mevertsen
Well-known member
For Nevada , I wonder how many 0 point applicants are true "first time applicants" or how many just applied with only the option to buy a license if they draw.
This could easily result in many repetitive 0 point applicants with a chance to draw, in addition to new, never applied applicants.
Some people just don't care for points, and for a few bucks can throw their name in the hat for a random deer tag or antelope tag and call it good.
I don't know how to pull those applicants apart in the bonus point stats.
We do know that total APPLICANTS were up this year by some 10 percent as was quoted in the video of the main draw. That is quite an increase.
This could easily result in many repetitive 0 point applicants with a chance to draw, in addition to new, never applied applicants.
Some people just don't care for points, and for a few bucks can throw their name in the hat for a random deer tag or antelope tag and call it good.
I don't know how to pull those applicants apart in the bonus point stats.
We do know that total APPLICANTS were up this year by some 10 percent as was quoted in the video of the main draw. That is quite an increase.
brownbear932008
Well-known member
That's what I read!
idelkslayer
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- 246
Again.......no stats.
Zim,
Having read through this entire thread I have to say that you have the responsibility for presenting stats to support your opinion. Why should anyone else commit the time to look up the stats you've claimed exist if you are not willing to do it yourself. You have made assertions and admitted that you haven't looked up any numbers to support them.
D
Deleted member 20812
Guest
LOL you keep throwing shit against the wall, but challenge everyone else to provide stats?Again.......no stats.
Zim
Well-known member
JLS, Again, I'm not the one posting totally irrelevant stats. And I have nothing to prove to anyone.
Gr8bawana, You are in violation of item #3 in terms of use, as usual. If you can't debate logically, just throw a tantrum.
BTW - To those of you guys who have recently PM'd me for more detailed advice, I've been a bit overwhelmed at work to get back with you but will by the weekend 7/19.
Gr8bawana, You are in violation of item #3 in terms of use, as usual. If you can't debate logically, just throw a tantrum.
BTW - To those of you guys who have recently PM'd me for more detailed advice, I've been a bit overwhelmed at work to get back with you but will by the weekend 7/19.
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Zim
Well-known member
No, I don't have any responsibility to anyone on the internet. That's not an opinion. It's a fact. Now I'm going to dumb this down for you and everyone else that is considering investing in these state run programs.
You have $500 to invest. You have three choices.
State A - Apply versus 25 years of applicants who have zero bonus points because the program has none. Say 10k applicants x 1 chance/ea = 1 vs. 10,000 comps
State B - Apply versus 25 years of applicants who have an average of about 7 bonus points each. Same 10k applicants x 7 chances/ea = 1 vs. 70,000 comps
State C - Apply versus 25 years of applicants who have an average of 7 squared bonus points each. Same 10k applicants x (7 x 7 = 49 chances/ea) = 1 vs. 490,000 comps
And the bonus you don't think about is 99% of the hunters in front of you are being held hostage and will continue to be there each year, so your odds in State C will drop significantly for at least 10 years if not longer.
I realized this is simplifying things but this is exactly what you buy into. It appears Nevada is smart enough to not publish the overall NR stats so as not to make it easy to evaluate this. I don't blame them!
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Desk Pop
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- 1,484
No, I don't have any responsibility to anyone on the internet. That's not an opinion. It's a fact. Now I'm going to dumb this down for you and everyone else that is considering investing in these state run programs.
You have $500 to invest. You have three choices.
State A - Apply versus 25 years of applicants who have zero bonus points because the program has none. Say 10k applicants x 1 chance/ea = 1 vs. 10,000 comps
State B - Apply versus 25 years of applicants who have an average of about 7 bonus points each. Same 10k applicants x 7 chances/ea = 1 vs. 7,000 comps
State C - Apply versus 25 years of applicants who have an average of 7 squared bonus points each. Same 10k applicants x (7 x 7 = 49 chances/ea) = 1 vs. 49,000 comps
And the bonus you don't think about is 99% of the hunters in front of you are being held hostage and will continue to be there each year, so your odds in State C will drop significantly for at least 10 years if not longer.
I realized this is simplifying things but this is exactly what you buy into. It appears Nevada is smart enough to not publish the overall NR stats so as not to make it easy to evaluate this. I don't blame them!
So now we have dropped air conditioning units and have moved on "what would you do with $500?"
What does all of that have to do with the increased numbers of ground floor applicants in Nevada? That is what the discussion was. You said they are getting so few new people the whole system will implode. The sky is falling for Nevada.....what will they do?
Nevada stated this year they had a 10% increase in applications. Buzz and I both posted samplings that show an increase over time. I have decided that you either lack the mathematical skill to determine which of two numbers is greater, or you are just trolling. Then I glanced at some of your old posts and realized your sole purpose on the site seems to be complaining about people putting in for Nevada because your odds with 22 points don't seem to be getting better.
No one would argue that the odds are tough for new applicants, but you only started that line of discussion after half of HT told you that you're full of it and have no idea what you're talking about.
If you think Nevada is such a crappy system then stop applying.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
Tastes like chicken I hear.
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
At least when you are doing returns for others fees are coming to you, when you do your own the funds only go out
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
May be new in some places, but it's been a go-to approach on HT for many years
VikingsGuy
Well-known member
I don't want to be a jerk but I overcame my math OCD the first time you posted it, but you reposted it and I can't remain silent. 10,000 x 7 x7 is 490,000; 10,000 x 7 is 70,000. I find zeros to be important in math. So, the next obvious question, are you working on 90 a/c; 900 a/c or 9,000 a/c?
Every year he does the same thing.
Zim
Well-known member
VikingsGuy, Not a jerk at all. I was typing well past my bedtime and wife was rushing me. Either way, your correction certainly helps prove my point in a major way. Yes folks, squaring points does make that huge a difference if you are on the ground floor. Pretty enlightening would't you say?
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