Nevada Worth the Money

[Trial153]

Prices are up on everything because we have an overall good economy. Wait for the next recession and prices will drop again. It is matter of waiting.

I haven’t seen the price of sheep hunts come down ever. In fact your lucky if you see them stay flat. isnt happening, even wait till the cows come home.

 

[LopeHunter]

I haven’t seen the price of sheep hunts come down ever. In fact your lucky if you see them stay flat. isnt happening, even wait till the cows come home.

There are not enough public tags and private hunts for bighorn rams in North America to meet the demand. Even if half the demand falls away in the next recession there are 100x the hunters each year wanting a sheep tag as there are sheep tags.

You will see a major impact during the next recession on prices of elk hunts for 280 class bulls, deer hunts for 140 class deer, pronghorn hunts, turkey hunts, pheasant hunts, dove hunts, geese and duck hunts. Hard to justify a hunt during a recession that will be waiting for you in a few years when your finances bounce back.

I predict WY sheep and moose point-builders will have another cull of 25% of more of the non-residents paying $150/year or whatever WY feels they want to charge what they assume are 1%ers in the point game.

There should be a major shake-out of the outfitter business as well. Lots of older guys seem to be running those operations and I doubt any are getting rich doing hunts. There are certain fixed costs to being an outfitter such as the gear and insurance so losing 25% of your hunts during a recession could be the "screw this" moment.

Odds should get better on applications where have to front the tag cost. Should be some good deals on what were $60K trucks when bought new. Might be some nice, used top brand optics for 50% of retail.

Time will tell. Hard to predict a recession but I know right now I am getting bids for a repipe job on an older home and the bidders are all but sending me flowers to award them the bid. Something is slowing in the plumbing trades.

 

[Zim]

I have asked myself the same question a few times over the last 7 or 8 years, and my answer to myself is always “NO.”

If they didn’t square points I’d be in for Nevada for sure. The cost just isn’t worth the low (minuscule) odds, though.

NoWiser is in fact wise. I was fortunate to get in early and draw a 111-222 archery elk tag back in 2007 when I beat only 6% odds and scored a 350” on day 10. Passed a ~380” & legit 400” due to quartering towards 40 yards. No regret. Just won’t take that shot. Unfortunately, those days are gone. I’m just going to say if you are a goHunt or Toprut member like me, go check out the odds for that hunt today. After what 20 years of squared point holders ahead of newbies? Slim left town a long time ago, but his little brother will return some day when the ground floor coin stops coming in, and NV overhauls their draw system. And don’t kid yourself that day will come. Every other state has done it. I’ve got 22 squared NV points for about everything and use all 5 picks on the lowest tier hunts hoping to burn them, except mid tier deer. No luck since 2007 but playin with house money after that elk tag.
Someone else look up the odds for that elk hunt I mention since some here don’t respect my opinion. You won’t believe it with all the squared points ahead of you. On the other hand, my last New Mexico hunt I scored a 330” bull in a rock bottom unit with 30% draw odds. I would call that a pretty good value.

 

[DK27]

Can get a little bit of it here: https://www.hunttalk.com/threads/starting-out-advice-welcome.266946/page-2

Thanks for sharing this! I'm glad I read it. Sounds like some folks should stick to running casinos and let someone else manage game and hunting apps

They should do a throw back year and have all applications be done on paper and see how many people apply haha

 

[Gr8bawana]

Prices are up on everything because we have an overall good economy. Wait for the next recession and prices will drop again. It is matter of waiting.

Did prices come down when the last recession hit? No! They may not have gone up but the certainly did not go down. It is NEVER going to happen. There will always be hundreds or thousands of apps for each tag depending on the animal.

 

[OverlordBear]

Did prices come down when the last recession hit? No! They may not have gone up but the certainly did not go down. It is NEVER going to happen. There will always be hundreds or thousands of apps for each tag depending on the animal.

I think it might baby boomers are almost timing out and hunt is falling out of Vogue you are probably right about the big three but I think elk and deer will see a price dip and where legal predators will become cheaper.

 

[Gr8bawana]

I think it might baby boomers are almost timing out and hunt is falling out of Vogue you are probably right about the big three but I think elk and deer will see a price dip and where legal predators will become cheaper.

If hunting is falling "out of vogue" as you claim why are the numbers of apps for big game not falling out west? You would think it's getting easier to draw tags but it is not.
Just wishful thinking on your part.

 

[OverlordBear]

If hunting is falling "out of vogue" as you claim why are the numbers of apps for big game not falling out west? You would think it's getting easier to draw tags but it is not.
Just wishful thinking on your part.

It is by comparison of percentage to the overall population. There aren’t more hunters just more people hunting multiple states and multiple tags.

 

[treedagain]

Nevada has been great to me in 17yrs. 6 great tags
About every 3 yrs....a tag shows up in the mail.

1 great desert sheep
1 good bull elk
1 pretty good
1 good deer
2 great antelope

 

[treedagain]

But then throw Idaho into it I drew 1 deer tag in about 15 yrs. In a unit that was about 50% draw odds some years.

But I KNOW in 3 years I should have a Nevada tag in my hands.....hopefully a cali sheep tag

 

[ImBillT]

Wether or not it’s worth it depends primarily on budget. If applying in NV is going to keep you out of other states, then no, NV is not worth it.

If sheep is important, you pretty much have to include NV, and even then, you need to apply in just about every state with a sheep to have a good chance at drawing a sheep tag before you die. Still, NV should be at the top of that list.

For just elk, in my opinion its not worth it. You’ll almost certainly draw once over a twenty year period, twice could happen.

 

[Zim]

Well it’s been a week and nobody else bothered to look up and post the current draw odds for that elk unit I drew back in 2007 when the odds with my 7 points were 6%. After 13 years of squared point holders ahead of him, a ground floor applicant today has less than 1/100th of 1% chance for that same tag. And the other elk hunts don’t have much better odds. On top of that, the newbie’s odds would be far, far lower each year going forward because the chances in the hat of those way ahead of him will bury his 1x1=1, 2x2=4 increases with 22x22=484 up to 23x23=529.....=+45 chances exponentially each year. I just think a potential investor should be aware of what he’d be getting into rather than walk in blindly dreaming he has any realistic chance. This image is off the goHunt draw odds page.

 

[treedagain]

Zim....kinda curious on why anyone would want to look up your draw odd?

 

[ImBillT]

Zim....kinda curious on why anyone would want to look up your draw odd?

My guess is that it’s a commonly sought after tag, and therefore one of the first anyone would care about when checking odds.

 

[Zim]

Zim....kinda curious on why anyone would want to look up your draw odd?

Because a couple guys on this thread have criticized my credibility. So I gave them the opportunity to look up and post what all those squared points did to the odds for that one sample hunt. They declined to do so. So I did it for them. The odds went from 6% to <1/100th of 1%. The exact odds weren’t published because goHunt does not bother to post anything below .01%.

 

[treedagain]

Well Zim, I have drawn a desert sheep tag as well as a premium elk unit, 2 prime rifle deer and 2 prime antelope tags. So I like what I see. I really like Nevada. And Nevada likes me.....

I did not know your credibility was questioned? Credibility of what? Do you care what a key board junkie thinks of you?

 

[Gr8bawana]

Well Zim, I have drawn a desert sheep tag as well as a premium elk unit, 2 prime rifle deer and 2 prime antelope tags. So I like what I see. I really like Nevada. And Nevada likes me.....

I did not know your credibility was questioned? Credibility of what? Do you care what a key board junkie thinks of you?

It's because he beat the odds but NOBODY else has a chance in a hell, even though it happens every year that someone with few to 0 bonus points draws one of those impossible draw tags.
Listen to zim and don't apply and you will definitely NEVER draw a tag in NV.

 

[3855WIN]

I decided the drive was too far and gave up Nevada. Sure did enjoy a deer hunt out there, though. That’s been a few years back.

 

[treedagain]

I am sure glad I took the leap of faith and started putting in 20 years ago. It did help that I was lion hunting for most of that time so the license cost every year went somewhere.

 

[Zim]

Well Zim, I have drawn a desert sheep tag as well as a premium elk unit, 2 prime rifle deer and 2 prime antelope tags. So I like what I see. I really like Nevada. And Nevada likes me.....

I did not know your credibility was questioned? Credibility of what? Do you care what a key board junkie thinks of you?

In 25 years I have been fortunate enough to draw some tags with as low as 1/100 odds. Those were IN THE PAST. Pre-thousands of squared point holders. Please tell us how many of your hunts you drew with below 1 in 10,000 odds. Because that is <1/100th of 1%. And this is for an ELK tag. Not a SHEEP tag. Some folks think ignoring a bunch of zero’s is a great idea. Go figure. Hell many raffle tags offer better odds than this for a fraction of the cost.